电子商务零售业的展望外文翻译.docx

电子商务零售业的展望外文翻译.docx

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电子商务零售业的展望外文翻译

外文翻译

TheEmergingLandscapeforRetailE-Commerce

MaterialSource:

TheJournalofeconomicperspectives　　Author:

YannisBakos

sternschoolofbusiness

newyorkuniversity

Onlingretailsalesofgoodsandservicesareprojectedtogrowfrom$45billionin2000,or1.5%oftotalretailsales,to$155billionin2003,andto$269billionin2005,or7.8%oftotalretailsalesprojectedforthatyear.inadditiontothissubstantialgrowthinonlinesales,consumersincreasinglyrelyoninformationcollectedonlinetoresearchalotofpurchasesthatareconcludedovertraditional"bricksandmortar"channels,especiallyforhighvaluedurablegoods.sushaselectronicsandautomobiles.sushpurchasesinfluencedbytheinternetareestimatedtogrowform$13billionin2000to$146billionin2003and$378billionin2005,or10.8%ofprojectedretailsales.Thiswouldbringthetotalretailsalesaffectedbye-commercein2005to$647billion,or18.5%oftotalretailsales.

Retaile-commerceisevolvingtoencompassawidevarietyofgoodsandservices.Leisuretravelwillbetheleadingcategoryin2000with27.2%ofonlinesales,followedbybooks,music,videosandsoftware（14.9%）,computersandeleputers（13.6%）andapparel（11.3%）.By2005,consumables（food,beverages,supplies,healthandbeautyaids,petsupplies,etc）areprojectedtoamountto18%ofonlineretailsales,followedbyapparel（16%）,computersandelectronics（12.4%）,automobiles（12.2%）andleisuretravel（12.1%）,whiletheshareofbooks,music,videosandsoftwarewillfallto9.6%.

Giventhegrowingrolethatthee-commercewillpalyinretailmarkets,thispaperfocusesonhowtheInternetisaffectingthesemarkets,andhowtheresulting

“digitalmarkets”comparetoconventionalmarketsintermsofsearchcosts,patternsofcompetition,mechanismsforpricediscovery,andtypesofintermediation.

ReducingSearchCostsForBuyersandSellers

　　Buyersfacesearchcostsinobtainingandprocessinginformationaboutthepricesandproductfeaturesofsellerofferings.Thesecostsincludetheopportunitycostoftimespentsearching,aswellasassociatedexpendituressuchasdriving,telephonecalls,computerfeesandmagazinesubscriptions.Similarly,sellersfacesearchcostsinidentifyingqualifiedbuyersfortheirproducts,suchasmarketresearch,advertising,andsalescalls.

SeveralInternet-basedtechnologieslowerbuyersearchcosts.Manysiteshelpbuyersidentifyappropriateselleroffering:

forexample,searchengineslikeAltaVista,Yahoo!

OrG;businessdirectoriesliketheoneprovidedbyYahoo!

;orspecializedproductandpricecomparisonagentsforspecificmarkets,suchasPricewatchandComputerESPforcomputersandcomponents,ExpediaandTravelocityforairlineticketsandothertravelproducts,andYahoo!

Shoppingforelectronics,andDealtimeforbooksandmusic.On-lineagentsliketheoneprovidedbyR-U-Smonitorconsumerbehaviorandhelpbuyersidentifythemostdesirablepricesandproductofferingswithoutrequiringthemtotakespecificaction.Internettechnologycanalsolowerthecosttobuyersofacquiringinformationaboutthereputationsofmarketparticipants.Suchreputationsmaybeprovidedaspartofthemarketplace（forexample,onEbay）,orthroughspecializedintermediaries,suchasBizrate,whichratesretailersonspecificattributes（service,

productquality,deliverypromptnessetc）bysurveyingconsumersthatrecentlypurchasedproductsfromtheseretailers.

　　TheInternetlowerssellersearchcostsaswell,byallowingsellerstocommunicateproductinformationcosteffectivelytopotentialbuyers,andbyofferingsellersnewwaystoreachbuyersthroughtargetedadvertisingandone-on-onemarketing.

　　Byreducingsearchcostsonbothsidesofthemarket,itappearslikelythatbuyerswillbeabletoconsidermoreproductofferingsandwillidentifyandpurchaseproductsthatbettermatchtheirneeds,witharesultingincreaseineconomicefficiency.Butthereductioninsearchcostscombinedwithnewcapabilitiesofinformationtechnologycansetoffmorecomplexmarketdynamics,too.

CompetitioninDigitalMarkets

　　Itmayseemclearthatlowersearchandinformationcostsshouldpushmarketstowardagreaterdegreeofpricecompetition,andthisoutcomeiscertainlyplausible,especiallyforhomogeneousgoods.Ontheotherhand,on-lineretailerscanuseInterenttechnologytoprovidedifferentiatedandcustomizedproducts,andthusavoidcompetingpurelyonprice.Iwillexplorethesepossibilitiesinturn.　　

TheBenefitstoBuyersofGreaterPriceCompetition

　　Lowersearchcostsindigitalmarketswillmakeiteasierforbuyerstofindlow-costsellers,andthuswillpromotepricecompetitionamongsellers.Thiseffectwillbemostpronouncedincommoditymarkets,whereloweringbuyers’searchcostsmayresultinintensivepricecompetitionwipingoutanyextraordinarysellerprofits.Itmayalsobesignificantinmarketswhereproductsaredifferentiated,reducingthemonopolypowerenjoyedbysellers,andleadingtolowersellerprofitswhileincreasingefficiencyandtotalwelfare（Bakos,1997）.

　　Someonlinemarketsmayhavelowerbarrierstoentryorsmallerefficientscale,thusleadingtoalargernumberofsellersatequilibrium,andcorrespondinglylowerpricesandprofits.Inparticular,certainsmall-scalesellersmayhaveabrighterfutureinawiredworldiftheycanidentifyappropriateniches,becausetheycanmoreeasilybesearchedfordiscovered,assearchcostsonlinearelessdeterminedbygeography.

　　Itmaythusbeexpectedthatonlinemarketswillhavemoreintensepricecompetition,resultinginlowerprofitsaswellasthepassingtoconsumersofsavingsfromlowercoststructures.Forinstance,onlineshoppersmayexpecta20-30percentdiscountforitemsnormallypriced$30-500（Tedeschi1999）.　　

TheAttemptsofSellerstoPracticeProductDifferentiation

　　Thedynamicsof“friction-free”marketsarenotattractiveforsellers.However,fewgoodsaretrulyhomogeneous.Asaresult,onlineretailerscanusetechnologytoincreaseproduct

differentiation.Thiswillleadtoanincreaseinsellerprofits,whichmaypartiallyorcompletelyoffsetthedecreasecausedbylowersearchcosts（Bakos,1997）.

　　Asastartingpoint,onlineretailerscanincreasethenumberofproductofferingsandtheinformationprovidedabouteachproduct,becausetheyarenotconstrainedbyphysicalshelfspace.Thiswillbeparticularlytrueasmerchantsimproveonlinestorelayouts,andasconsumersacquirehighspeedInternetconnections.Theresultingincreaseinvarietyoffersthepossibilityofcustomization--thatis,theabilitytoleteachcustomerchoosethedesiredsetofproductcharacteristics.Customizationofconventionalgoodsbecomesespeciallypossiblewhenretaile-commerceiscombinedwithmodernproductiontechniquesthatallowbuilding-to-order.

　　Dellcomputerisfrequentlymentionedasanexampleofhowonlineorderingcanallowconsumerstocustomizetheirpurchases,resultinginamuchlargervarietyofproductofferingsthanwasavailableinthepast.ConsumersorderingaDellcomputeronlinecancustomizeseveralproductcharacteristics,suchastheprocessor,memory,capacityofharddisk,displaycards,monitor,andsoon,resultinginthousandsofpotentialproductvariations.Thisproductvarietyismadefeasiblebecausethepurchasedcomputerismanufacturedaftertheorderisplaced,thuseliminatingtheneedforDelltocarryinventoriesofallpossiblevariationsofitsproductofferings.

Information-richproductslendthemselvestocost-effectivecustomization.Forinstance,deliveringanelectronicnewspapertailoredtotheinterestsofanindividualreaderneednotbemorecostlythandeliveringthesamecopytoallsubscribers,whileofferingaccesstoamuchbroaderselectionofnewsandresourcesthanwouldbefeasibletoprintanddistributephysically.

Customizationcanbebasedonasetofpreferencesspecifieddirectlybytheconsumer,ormoresubtly,thefeaturesofthecustomizedproductmightbededucedautomatically.Technologyallowstheidentificationandtrackingofindividualconsumers,bothwithinanonlinestoreandacrossdifferentwebsites.Profilingtechnologiesallowthecreationandsharingofconsumerprofiles,thematchingofconsumeridentitieswithrelevantdemographicinformation,orcomparisonwiththeknownpreferencesofsimilarconsumers.Suchtechniquescanbeusedtodiscoverorestimatethepreferencesofspecificconsumers.

Allthesetechnologiesmakeitpossibleforonlinemerchantstoassesstheircustomerspreferenceswithsignificantlymoreaccuracythanphysicalstoresorcatalogmerchants.Forexample,productofferingscanbecustomizedandrecommendationscanbemadebasedonaconsumer’sattitudes,pastbehavioranddemographiccharacteristics,orthrough”collaborativefiltering”systemsthatofferrecommendationsbasedonthefeedbackandexperiencesofconsumerswithaprofileoflikesanddislikessimilartothetargetedconsumer.

Merchantscanalsoattempttodifferentiatethemselvesandswitchingcostsforconsumersthroughsuperioruserinterfaceswithwhichconsumersbecomefamiliar,orbyemployingsystemsthatusepastpurchasesorcustomerprofilestoidentifydesiredproductcharacteristics.Forexample,systemslikeA’sbookrecommendationengineallowbuyerstoidentifyproductsthathavetheirdesiredfeatures,withoutfocusingonthecorrespondingprice.Totheextentthatnewpurchaesprovideinformationthstwillincreasetheaccuracyoffuturerecommendations,consumersmayprefertoconcentratetheirpurchasestooneorfewonlineretailers,effectivelyfacingswitchingcostssimilartothoseinducedbyloyaltyprogramssuchasfrequentflyermiles.

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