国贸毕业外文文献及其翻译Word文件下载.doc

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thenatureoftheinternationalproductionsystemsinvolvedleadtocomplementarilyratherthanconfrontation.Chinaisthusactingasanengineofexportgrowthforitsneighborsintermsofdirecttrade.However,thiswillchangeasChinamovesupthevaluechainandtakesontheactivitiesthathavedrivenEastAsianexportgrowth.

Introduction

ConcernaboutChina’scompetitivethreatiswidespread（indevelopedeconomieslikeUSaswellasdevelopingoneslikeMexico）,butisstrongestinEastandSoutheastAsia.China’sburgeoningexports–backedbycheapandproductivelabor,alargestockoftechnicalmanpower,hugeanddiversifiedindustrialsector,attractivenesstoforeigninvestors,pragmaticuseofindustrialpolicy,and,now,freeraccesstoworldmarketsunderWTO–leadtoapocalypticvisionsofexportlosses.2Chinaismostthreateningtoneighborsthatrelyprimarilyonlowwagesfortheirexportadvantage.However,asitupgradesitsexportstructure,themoreadvancedeconomies（Singapore,HongKong,KoreaandTaiwan）alsofearfortheircompetitiveness.Thecurrenthollowingoutoftheirlow-endmanufacturingmaysoonextendtocomplexproduction,design,developmentandrelatedservices.DomesticmarketsarealsothreatenedbyChina,butsofarmostattentionseemstohavebeenonexports.

OffsettingthisthreatarethepromiseofthegiantChinesemarket（WTOaccessionisonlyoneofseveralinitiativestoliberalizeregionaltrade）andthepotentialforcollaborationwithitinexportingtotherestoftheworld.TradewithintheEastAsianregionisflourishing.Chinaisagrowingimporterfromtheregionofnaturalresourcesthatitdoesnotpossess.Itisalsoraisingimportsofmanufacturedproducts.Itsadvancedneighborsaresellingitsophisticatedconsumerandproducergoods,andusingitasabaseforprocessingexportstothirdcountries.Themultinationalcompanies（MNCs）thatnowaccountforaroundhalfofChineseexports（andfarmoreofitshightechnologyexports,UNCTAD,2002）areincorporatingChinaintoproductionsystemsspanningtheregion（‘fragmentation’and‘segmentation’areusedtodescribethisphenomenon3）,sopromotingconsiderableintra-firmtradewithotherregionalbases.China’sownenterprisesarelikelytospecializewithrespecttoregionalcounterpartsandsoraiseintra-industrytradeindifferentiatedproducts.Perhapsworryinglyforcompetitorsinotherregions,suchintegrationcanleadChinatocomplementregionalcompetitivenessasawhole,ratherthansubstituteitsexportsforthoseofitsneighbors.

Itisdifficulttoassess,however,whethercomplementarilybetweenChinaandtheregionaleconomieswillfullyoffsetitscompetitivethreat.Thedynamicsandcomplexityoftheinteractionsmakeitimpossibletoquantifytheoutcome,eventopredictbroaddirections.ThebasicissueiswhetherChina’shigherwageneighborscanmoveintomoreadvancedexportactivitiesorfunctionsrapidlyenoughtopermitcontinuedexportexpansion.Iftheycan,theycancontinuewithexport-ledgrowth.Iftheycannot,theywillsufferexportdecelerationand/orashiftinspecializationtowardsprimaryproductsorslow-growingsegmentsofmanufacturedexports.Theoutcome,inotherwords,willdependontherelativegrowthoftechnologicalandothercapabilitiesinChineseandregionalenterprises,withtheformerhavingsuchadvantagesaslowerwages,largerscaleeconomies,greaterindustrialdepth,poolsoftechnicalskillandaproactivegovernment.However,asEastAsiancountriesdifferwidelyinthesefactors（Lall,2001）,theyfacedifferentkindsandintensityofcompetitivethreat.Thenatureofthethreatdepends,moreover,ontheorganizationoftheproductionandmarketingsystem:

independentlocalfirmsarelikelytocompetemoredirectlythanaffiliatesofthesameMNCspreadoverdifferentcountriesinanintegratedsystem.

ThispaperdoesnottrytomeasureChina’scompetitivethreatoritseffects,buttomaprelativeexportperformanceinthe1990sbytechnologyanddestinationandsoassesswherethethreatappearsmostintense.WefocusonmajorEastAsianexporters5andonexportstothirdmarkets,butwealsoanalysescomplementaritiesbetweenChinaandEastAsia,particularlyinelectronics,theregion’slargestexportandtheonewhereMNCsystemsdominate.Asthe1990spredateChina’sWTOaccession,wedonotgointotheimplicationsofthisaccession;

however,theanalysisofcompetitivetrendshasimplicationsfortheevolutionoffuturetradebytheregionasliberalizationgrows.

BackgroundonChineseexportperformance

Chinesemanufacturedexportsgrewby16.9%perannumover1990-2000,comparedto6.4%fortheworld,12.0%foralldevelopingcountriesand10.3%fortherestofEastAsia.Itsshareofworldmanufacturedexportsrosefrom1.7%to4.4%overthedecadeandcontinuedrisingrapidly.6Thus,by2002Chinaaccountedfor5.1%ofworldmerchandiseexports;

itwasthenthefifthlargestexporter（afterUSA,Germany,JapanandFrance,andaheadoftheUK）.China’sshareofdevelopingworldmanufacturedexportsrosefrom11%to20%overthe1990sandoftheEastAsianregionexcludingChinafrom18.7%to41.8%.Itsexportgains（seebelow）spannedtheentiretechnologicalspectrum,andweremostdynamicinthecomplexendoftherange,inproductsthathaverecentlydriventheexportgrowthoftherestofEastAsia.

Thisexportsurgeislikelytobesustainedforsometimetocome.Chinahas‘sparecapacity’inthatitspercapitaexportsarestillrelativelysmall,7wagesaremuchlowerthaninitsmainneighborsandithaslargereservesofcheapanddisciplinedlabor（thoughdrawingitintoexportswillinvolvethecostofbuildinglinkswiththeinterior）.8Moreimportantly,itsadvantagesarenotstatic（confinedtocheaplabor）;

theyareupgradingrapidly.Chinaisinvestingheavilyintechnologyandadvancedskills;

forexample,theshareoftherelevantagegroupenrolledintertiaryeducationrosefrom9percentin1997to13percentin2000（UNESCOwebsite）.Itisexploitingthescaleofferedbyitsgiantmarkettobecomecompetitiveincapital-intensiveactivitiesbeyondthereachofmanyneighbors.Itisusingitsdiverseindustrialbasetodeepenlocalcontent.Itisdrawinginexport-orientedFDIatanimpressiverate,usingitsmarketattractionstoinduceinvestorstoraiselocalR&

Dandlinkages;

tillnowithasbeenabletoimposeperformancerequirementsofthetypesoontobebannedunderWTOrules.

WTOaccessionmayconstrainChina’sabilitytouseindustrialpolicy（Nolan,2001）butitwillalsoopenupnewexportopportunities,particularlyintextilesandgarments.9Accessionmayalsoenhanceitsdomesticcompetitiveness:

itwillimprovetheinvestmentclimateforFDI,makeimportedinputscheaper（forenterprisesoutsidespecialexportregimes）andinducefasterrestructuringofdomesticenterprises（Ianchovichinaetal,2003,andLemoyneandUnal-Kesenci,2002）.

Marketsharechangesinmajordevelopedcountrymarkets

WeanalyzemarketsharesofChinaanditsneighborsinthreemajormarkets:

Japan,theUSandWestEurope,accordingtotechnologycategories（AnnexTable1）.Intermsofvalue,themostimportantmarketforChinain2000istheUS（$49billion）,followedbyJapan（$36billion）andWestEurope（$38billion）.However,therestoftheworldisalmostaslargeadestinationforChineseexportsasthesetogether（$106billionin2000）andwithinthistherestofEastAsiaislargerthananymajorOECDmarketbyitself（$74.6billion）.

Thecompetitivepositionofeachcountrycanbeanalyzedintermsofthemarketsharein1990and2000andthechangeoverthedecade.Theannextableshowsthefollowing:

Totalmanufacturedexports:

ChinadoesbestinJapan,followedatsomedistancebytheUS.Incommonwithmostneighbors,itsmarketsharegainisweakestinWestEurope.KorealosesmarketsharesinbothJapanandUS,whileTaiwanlosesonlyintheUS.HongKong’slosesmarketsharesinallmarkets,particularlyintheUSandJapan.LikeTaiwan,SingaporelosesonlyintheUS.ThenewTigersgainshareinallmarkets.WiththeexceptionofIndonesia,witharathertepidperformance,theothersallgainmostshareintheJapanesemarket.

Resourcebasedproducts:

Chinaagainleadstheregionintermsofmarketshareincreases,withapatternsimilartothatfortotalexports.However,KoreahasalargegaininJapan,incontrasttoTaiwanandSingapore,whichloseshares;

thelattertwoalsoloseintheUS.ThailandisabiggainerinJapanwhileIndonesiaandthePhilippinesloseoutintheUS.Lowtechnologyproducts:

China’smassivemarketsharegainsareagainconcentratedinJapan.ThefourmatureTigersgenerallysufferlossesinmarketshare,butSingaporeseesanincreaseinJapanesemarketshar