贝恩咨询分析方法-ProfitPools1.ppt

贝恩咨询分析方法-ProfitPools1.ppt

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Author:

DanaPeckReviewer:

MichaelCollins,ProfitPools,December1998,Copyright1998Bain&Company,Inc.,2,Agenda,ProfitPoolsConceptApplicationsProfitPoolStepsClientExampleKeyTakeaways,3,ProfitpoolsarethetotalprofitsearnedinanindustryatallpointsalongtheindustrysvaluechainPatternofprofitconcentrationinanindustryisverydifferentfromthepatternofrevenueconcentration（seeexample）Forexample,profitsandrevenuesintheautomotiveindustrycanbedividedamongmanyvaluechainactivities-vehiclemanufacturing,newandusedcarsales,gasolineretailing,insurance,after-salesserviceandparts,andleasefinancingalthoughcarmanufacturinganddealersaccountforalmost60%ofindustryrevenueautoleasingandfinancingarebyfarthemostprofitablebusinesses,WhatareProfitPools?

Profitpoolsanswerthequestion:

“Whereandhowismoneybeingmade?

”,Source:

ProfitPools:

AFreshLookatStrategy（May-June1998）:

OritGadieshandJamesL.Gilbert,4,WhatisProfit?

Accountingprofit-representscompanysearningsasformallyreportedmostcommonlyusedasthebasicprofitmeasureexamplesincludenetincomeorearningspersharecalculationsReturnoninvestment-representscompanysearningsaftertakingintoaccountthecostofcapitalinvestedinthebusiness.Twocommonlyusedmeasuresinclude:

ROC,accountingbasedReturnonCapital（bookvalue）ROIC,accountingbasedReturnonInvestedCapital（bookvalue）Cash-flowcontribution-companysearningsbeforetakingfixed-assetandcapitalcostsintoaccount（e.g.EBITDA）representstheamountofcashleftfromasaleaftersubtractingthevariablecostsassociatedwiththatsaleusedasabasisfordecision-makinginmature,highfixedcostandcyclicalindustries,Profitcanbedefinedinoneofthreeways:

Beawareofdifferencesinaccountingstandardswhenevaluatingcompanieswithprofitsspanningdifferentindustries,Source:

HowtoMapYourIndustrysProfitPool（May-June1998）;OritGadieshandJamesL.Gilbert,5,Revenuevs.ProfitSplit,TruckFinance,PartsandService,BodyManufacturing,andTruckAssembly,ChassisManufacturing,andSales,TruckFinance,PartsandService,BodyManufacturing,andTruckAssembly,ChassisManufacturing,andSales,RevenueSplitbyActivity,ProfitSplitbyActivity,$3,865MM,$600MM,0%,20%,40%,60%,80%,100%,PercentofTotal,Source:

PBIRProfileoftheU.S.TruckBodyIndustry;R.L.PolkRegistrationDatabase;LiteratureSearch;TEMFinancials;PriorBainPLPanalysis（7/96）;Bainestimates,Thepatternofprofitconcentrationinthetruckmanufacturingindustryisverydifferentfromthepatternofrevenueconcentration.,TruckManufacturingBusinessExample,6,WhyUseProfitPools?

OfferaviewoftheunderlyingindustrystructureHelpillustratetheeconomicandcompetitiveforcesdrivingtheindustrysprofitdistributionOfferadifferentperspectiveonanindustryIllustraterelationshipbetweenprofitandrevenuesHighlightspotentialwatchouts（chokepointsinthevaluechain）whichcaninfluencetheprofitflowinanindustry,IllustratetheCurrentStateoftheIndustry,ProvideaCompetitiveAdvantagetoYourClient,HelptoDevelopInnovativeStrategies,HelpcompaniesseewhattheirrivalsdontseeFosterthepotentialtodictatethetermsofcompetitionwithintheindustryKeepcompaniesabreastofchangesinrapidlychanging（turbulent）industriesalertpotentialshiftsinprofitdistributionalongthevaluechainillustratepotentialchangeinprofitsourcesfromnewentrants,HelpguideimportantdecisionsaboutacompanysoperationandstrategyEncouragerethinkingolddecisionsandpursuingcounterintuitiveinitiativestocreateandcontrolprofitpoolsReducethepossibilityofblindspotsinacompanysstrategicvisionreducepotentialtooverlookattractiveprofitbuildingopportunitieslessonpotentialtobecometrappedinareasofweak/fadingprofitabilityExampleapplications,Companiesthatrecognizethevariabilityofprofitabilityandcanexploitthedeepestpoolswillearnsuperiorreturns.,Source:

ProfitPools:

AFreshLookatStrategy（May-June1998）:

OritGadieshandJamesL.Gilbert,7,HowProfitPoolsIllustratetheStateoftheIndustry,Thevaryingconcentrationsofprofitalongthevaluechain（knownastheshapeoftheprofitpool）reflectthecompetitivedynamicsofabusinessprofitconcentrationsresultfromtheactionsandinteractionsofcompaniesandcustomersprofitpoolsforminareaswherebarrierstocompetitionexistprofitpoolsexistinareasthathavebeenoverlookedbycompetitorsEverymarkethasanunevendistributionofprofitbetweenproductcategories,customergroups,geographicregionsand/ordistributionchannelsProfitpoolsarenotstagnantaspowershiftsamongtheplayersinanindustry（competitors,suppliers,andcustomers）,thestructureoftheprofitpoolchanges,Therearemanydifferentsourcesofprofitinanybusiness,Profitpoolsprovideameanstoevaluatethecompetitivedynamicsofanindustry.,Source:

ProfitPools:

AFreshLookatStrategy（May-June1998）:

OritGadieshandJamesL.Gilbert,8,ProfitPoolWatchouts（ComputerIndustryExample）,Examples:

Beawareof“chokepoints”-particularbusinessactivitiesthatcontroltheflowofprofitsthroughoutanindustry.,Impact:

Controlofachokepointcaninfluencethedistributionofprofitsamongcompetitorsandmoredistantvalue-chainparticipants,IntelsdominanceofmicroprocessorsEstablishmentofanindustrywidestandardthatallcompaniesmustnowobey,MicrosoftsdominanceofWindowsConsolidationofcontroloverthecustomerinterface,*includesoperatingsystemandapplicationsoftwareSource:

ProfitPools:

AFreshLookatStrategy（May-June1998）:

OritGadieshandJamesL.Gilbert,Micro-processors,OtherComponents,PersonalComputers,Software*,Peripherals,Services,9,Micro-,processors,OtherComponents,PersonalComputers,Soft-,ware,Peripherals,Services,0%,10%,20%,30%,40%,OperatingMargin,ShareofIndustryRevenue,ProfitPoolWatchouts（ComputerIndustryExampleCon.）,*includesoperatingsystemandapplicationsoftwareSource:

ProfitPools:

AFreshLookatStrategy（May-June1998）:

OritGadieshandJamesL.Gilbert,AnalyzingtheprofitpoolhasenabledDelltobeprofitableintheleastprofitablepersonalcomputerssegment（seeexample）,Althoughchokepointsexistinthecomputerindustry,itisstillpossibleforcompaniestocreateandleveragenewprofitpoolswithinthisindustry.,PCIndustryProfitPool,100%,10,0%,5%,10%,15%,20%,25%,OperatingMargin,Theautomotiveindustryencompassesmanyvalue-chainactivities.Themostprofitableareasofthecarbusinessarenottheonesthatgeneratethebiggestrevenues.,Automanufacturing,Newcardealers,Usedcardealers,Autoloans,Leasing,Gasoline,Autoinsurance,Servicerepair,Aftermarketparts,Autorental,ShareofIndustryRevenue,100%,U.S.AutoIndustryExample,11,KeyQuestionstoHelpDevelopInnovativeStrategies,Whyhaveprofitpoolsformedwheretheyhave?

Aretheforcesthatcreatedthosepoolslikelytochange?

Willnew,moreprofitablebusinessmodelsemerge?

Howdosomeprofitsourcesexertinfluenceoverothersandshapecompetition?

Howdowegainadisproportionateshareofindustryprofits?

Buildinganunderstandingofprofitpoolsputsstrategicthinkingonafirmfootingandpromptsthefollowingquestions:

Source:

ProfitPools:

AFreshLookatStrategy（May-June1998）:

OritGadieshandJamesL.Gilbert,12,Agenda,ProfitPoolsConceptApplicationsProfitPoolStepsClientExampleKeyTakeaways,13,Applications（1of2）,AnalyzingprofitpoolsallowedU-Haultoidentifyalargeuntappedsourceofprofitinthelowmargintruckrentalbusinessseizedthefirstmoveradvantageandenteredaccessorybusinessatalowcostreducedprices（andprofits）incoretruckrentalbusinesstoattractcustomersforhighermarginaccessorybusinessInanticipationofapotentialreconfigurationoftheprofitpoolfrompharmacy-benefitmanagers（PBM）,MerckandothersverticallyintegratedthevaluechainandacquiredPBMsinsulatedthemselvesfromnewentrantsandprotectedtheirexistingsourcesofprofitsgainedgreateraccesstopatientinformationincreasedthelikelihoodthatthepoolwouldevolveinabeneficialratherthandestructiveway,Companiescanusetheirunderstandingofprofitpoolsindifferentways:

IdentifyNewSourcesofProfit,ChartAcquisitionandExpansionStrategies,Examples,Source:

ProfitPools:

AFreshLookatStrategy（May-June1998）:

OritGadieshandJamesL.Gilbert,14,Applications（2of2）,DellComputerCorp.utilizestheprofitpoolapproachtoevaluatewhichcustomerstopursueandwhichchannelstousedirectsalesapproachallowsDelltokeepaportionofdealersprofitsforitselfandtosharetherestwithcustomersthroughlowerpricesregularresegmentationofcustomerbaseenablesthemtoidentifythemostprofitablecustomersandreactquicklytonewsourcesofprofitAfterrecognizingthattheindustrysprofitpoolwasdrivenbythepremiumbeersegments,AnheuserBushrefocusedtheirstrategytoexpandtheirshareofthepremiumsegmentgaineddominanceofthepremiumsegmentthroughincreasedmarketingofpremiumbrandsandbymanagingthepricedifferentialsbetweenpremiumanddiscountbrandsverticalintegrationintocanproductionraisedcompetitivebarriersaroundthepoolbycuttingmanufacturinganddistributioncost,DevelopDistributionStrategy,GuidePricing,ProductandOperatingDecisions,Thecompanythatseeswhatothersdonotwillbebestpreparedtocaptureadisproportionateshareofindustryprofits,Source:

ProfitPools:

AFreshLookatStrategy（May-June1998）:

OritGadieshandJamesL.Gilbert,15,Agenda,ProfitPoolsConceptApplicationsProfitPoolStepsClientExampleKeyTakeaways,16,MappingaProfitPool,Mappingaprofitpoolinvolvesfoursteps.,DefinethePool,DeterminetheSizeofthePool,EstimatetheDistributionofProfits,ReconciletheEstimates,Step1:

Step2:

Step3:

Step4:

Source:

HowtoMapYourIndustrysProfitPool（M