外文文献及翻译_中国的低碳发展之路 China’s Pathway to Low-carbon DevelopmentWord文件下载.docx
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JournalofKnowledge-based
InnovationinChina
文献、资料发表(出版)日期:
Vol.2No.3,2010
院(部):
管理工程学院
专 业:
工程造价
班 级:
姓 名:
学 号:
指导教师:
翻译日期:
2012.5.28
山东建筑大学毕业论文外文文献及译文
外文文献
China’sPathwaytoLow-carbonDevelopment
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Abstract
Purpose–ThepurposeofthispaperistoexploreChina’scurrentpolicyandpolicyoptionsregardingtheshifttoalow-carbon(LC)development.
Design/methodology/approach–Thepaperusesbothaliteraturereviewandempiricalsystemsanalysisofthetrendsofsocio-economicconditions,carbonemissionsanddevelopmentofinnovationcapacitiesinChina.
Findings–Theanalysisshowsthataholisticsolutionandco-benefitapproachareneededforChina’stransitiontoagreenandLCeconomy,andthat,especiallyfordevelopingcountries,itisnotenoughtohaveonlygoalsregardingmitigationandadaptation.Instead,aconcreteroadmaptowardsaLCfutureisneededthataddresseskeyissuesoftechnologytransfer,institutionalarrangementsandsharingthecostsinthecontextofaglobalclimateregime.Inthislight,itisarguedthatChinashouldadoptanapproachforlow-carbondevelopmentcentredoncarbonintensityreductionoverthenexttenyears.
Originality/value–Thepaperthusprovidesauniquesummary,inEnglish,oftheargumentssupportingChina’scurrentlow-carboninnovationpoliciesfromoneoftheauthorsofthispolicy.Keywords:
Carbon,Sustainabledevelopment,Environmentalmanagement,Governmentpolicy,China
Papertype–Researchpaper
Climatechangehasbecomethemostsignificantenvironmentanddevelopmentchallengetohumansocietyinthetwenty-firstcentury.Respondingtoclimatechangeisthecoretasktoachievingglobalsustainabledevelopment,bothfortodayandforaratherlongperiodoftimefromtoday.Internationalnegotiationsonpreventionofglobalwarmingandrelatedactionsnotonlyconcernthehumanlivingenvironment,butalsodirectlyimpactthemodernizationprocessofdevelopingcountries.Althoughtheprocessofglobalclimateprotectiondependsontheconsensusofourscientificawareness,politicalwills,economicinterests,society’slevelof
acceptance,aswellasmeasuresadopted,alow-carbon(LC)developmentpathis,undoubtedly,thecriticalchoiceoffuturehumandevelopment.
Thesciencebasisofclimatechangeanditsextendedpoliticalandeconomicimplications
Globalwarmingoftheclimatesystemhasbecomeanunequivocalfact.Accordingtoalargeamountofmonitoringdata,globalaveragelandsurfacetemperaturehasrisen0.748Coverthelastcentury(IPCC,2007a,b,c,d).Andtherateofrisinghasbeenspedup.Inthemeantime,globalaveragesealevelhasbeenconstantlyrisingtoo.GlobalwarminghasposedaseriouschallengetoChina’sclimate,environmentanddevelopment.Intheglobalcontextofclimatechange,China’sclimateandenvironmentarechangingtoo.Forinstance,inthelastcentury,thelandsurfaceaveragetemperaturehaswitnessedanobviousincrease;
thoughtheprecipitationhasnotchangedtoomuch,itsinterdecadalvariationsandregionaldisparityhavebeenbig.Inthelast50years,therehavealsobeenmajorchangesinthefrequencyandintensityofextremeweatherandclimateevents(EditorialBoardofChina’sNationalAssessmentReportonClimateChange,2007).
TheIPCC(2007a,b,c,d)integratedassessmentshowsthatsince1750,humanactivitieshavebeenamajorcauseofglobalwarming,whileinthelast50years,mostoftheglobalwarmingistheconsequenceofhumanactivities,withaprobabilityofmorethan90percent,inparticularfromthegreenhousegases(GHGs)emissionsduetothehumanuseoffossilfuels.Itisforecastthatbeforetheendofthetwenty-firstcentury,globalwarmingwillcontinue,andhowmuchthetemperaturewillrisedependsonwhatactionshumanswilltake.AccordingtheThirdWorkingGroupReportoftheIPCCfourthAssessment(IPCC,2007a,b,c,d),humanactionstomitigateclimatechangearefeasible,botheconomicallyandtechnologically.Actionstodeploykeymitigationtechnologiesinvarioussectors,adoptingpolicyandadministrativeinterferenceandshiftingthedevelopmentpathwaycouldallcontributegreatlytomitigationofclimatechange.WithChinabecomingtheworld’slargestCO2emitter,Chinafacesincreasingpressuretoreduceitsemissions.Beingaresponsiblecountry,Chinawilltakeactionstotackleclimatechange.Whendevelopingitsmitigationtarget,Chinawillconsidersuchfactorsaslevelofdevelopment,technologyknow-how,socialimpact,internationalimageandanewinternational
climateregimeunderpinnedbyfairnessandeffectiveness.Chinawillmoveintoawin-windevelopmentpathtoachieveclimateprotection,qualityeconomicdevelopmentandotherrelatedpolicytargets.
TodevelopLCeconomy–background,opportunitiesandchallenges
Asillustratedabove,systematicsolutionsarerequiredtotackleclimatechange,duetothecomplexityoftheglobalclimatesystemaswellasitscoverageofbroadsocialandeconomicissues.Afternearlytwodecades’exploration,humansocietyhasrealizedthatinordertoeffectivelymitigateandadapttoclimatechange,wehavetofundamentallyreduceourrelianceonfossilfuels,whichmeansthatwehavetoachievetheshifttoaLCfuturefromthewayweproduceandconsumetohowglobalassetsareallocated(includingindustries,technology,capitalsandresources)andhowtheyaretransferred.FromtheperspectiveofthelimitedstoragecapacityofGHGsintheclimatesystemasaglobalpublicgood,bothahighlevelofhumanwisdomandanewinternationalclimateregimetodealwithmarketfailurearerequired,whichalsodemandstheparticipationofallstakeholdersandtogethertheyshallcharteranewdevelopmentpathway.Humansocietyhastopaytheeconomicpricestosolveclimatewarming.Thus,thethreeflexible“mechanisms”intheKyotoProtocol(jointimplementation,emissionstradingandcleandevelopmentmechanism)demonstrateameaningfulexperimentfortheAnnexIcountriestodecreasetheiremissionsreductioncosts.Whatisneededistomoveforwardfromwherewearenowtoexploreamoreuniversallyapplicablemechanismthatwouldeffectivelyallocatetheresourcesamongthekeyresponsiblestakeholders.TheLCdevelopmentpathembodiesanintegratedsolutionstrategy.ItaimstobuildupaLCsocietythroughLCeconomicdevelopment,triestoachievetherestructuringofallthekeyelementsdiscussedaboveandoffersnewopportunitiesforhumansocietyinresponsetoclimatechangethroughcollaborations.
Asafundamentalvenuetocoordinatesocialandeconomicdevelopment,guaranteeenergy
securityandrespondtoclimatechange,developmentofLCeconomyisgraduallygainingtheneededconsensusfrommoreandmorecountries.Thoughwithoutafixedacademicdefinition,thecoreofdevelopingaLCeconomyistoestablishadevelopmentpathwaythathashigh-energyefficiency,low-energyconsumptionandlowemissions.Underafairandeffectiveinternational
climateregime,theefficiencyofenergyexploration,generation,transmission,transformationanduseisexpectedtobeincreasedgreatlyandenergyconsumptiongreatlyreduced,sothatthecarbonintensityinenergysupplyforeconomicgrowthisdramaticallyreduced,alongwiththecarbonemissionsfromenergyconsumption.Throughincreasingcarbonsinkandusingcarboncaptureandstorage(CCS)technology,theGHGemissionsfromfossilfuelsthatarehardtoreducecanbeoffset.Inthemeanwhile,throughtheestablishmentofreasonableandfairtechnologytransferandfinancialsupportmechanisms,developingcountriescanundertakethecostsofshiftingtowardsLCpatternswhilebeingatthelowestendofthevaluechainintheinternationaltradestructure.TheperspectivesofdevelopmentvalueneedtobechangedinordertopromotethetransitionofconsumptiontowardsasustainableandLCfuture.
Whatneedstobeclarifiedisthat,duetothedifferencesofvariouscountries’socialandeconomiccontexts,thestartingpointstowardsaLCfuturemightvary,asmightthepursuedgoals.Fordevelopedcountriesthataretakingtheleadtocommittoreductiontargets,theirfirstobjectivetodevelopaLCeconomyistoreduceemissions.Fordevelopingcountrieswhoseeconomiesarestillatafastgrowingstage,theirfirstpriorityisdevelopmentandtheirpercapitaenergyconsumptionisexpectedtocontinuetogrow.Theobjectivesshallbemultiple.Atthecurrentstage,itishardtomainstreamtheclimatechangepoliciesdomestically.Whatispossibleistoreduceenergyintensityandincreasecarbonproductivityinordertograduallydecoupleeconomicgrowthandcarbonemissions.WhatisequallyimportantisthatthereexistmanyuncertaintiesindevelopmentofLCeconomy,particularlyfordevelopingcountries.Tremendousdifficultiesandbarriersneedtobeovercomeintheprocess.Attheinternationallevel,theuncertaintiesofdevelopingLCeconomyinclude:
Costsandmarkets–atthismomentwecouldhardlybeabletoestimatethewholecoststhatarerequiredtodevelopaLCeconomy.ItisfarfrombeingassimpleascalculatingthedirectcostsofadoptingLCtechnologies.ItalsotakestimetoestablishLCtechnologyandproductmarkets,especiallynow,whentheglobalfinancialcrisishashiteveryonehardandwhennoonecangiveagoodestimateaboutwhentheworldeconomycouldturnaroundandrecover;
thoughmanyexpertsandscholarsholdthattheresponsetothelong-termclimatechangecouldbringnewopportunitiestoeconomicrecovery(Stiglitz,2009;
Wang,2008b).WhatmakesthesituationmorecomplicatednowishowtheUSA,China,India