外文翻译现行水泥工业的分析.docx

外文翻译现行水泥工业的分析.docx

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外文翻译现行水泥工业的分析

TheAnalysisofCurrentCementIndustry

2.1Uprisingoverallsituationofcurrentcementindustry

Currentcementindustryrealizesco-increaseofproductionandbenefit，andhasentereditsuprisingtrack．Sinceitsreversingfromlosetobenefit，theenterprises’benefithasbeenrebounding．Cemententerprisesgained

500millionYuanin2000；3.05billionYuanin200l：

4.65billionYuanin2002．Incementmarket．Cemententerpriseskeephighproduction—salesrate：

99.4％in2001，101％in2002．Itisalsodelightedthatlargesizedenterpriseshasrealizedprofitof2.79billionYuan，covering91％oftheoverallsector’sprofitin2001，andtheirprofitreached3.84billionYuan．covering82.6％ofthetotalprofitofthissector.

Thosestatisticsshowthatcurrentcementmarketrealizesitsfunctionofassigningcementresourcesinaccordancetothesupply—demanddevelopment，andkeepsthestabilityofcementmarketprice．Since1993cementpricehasbeenfluctuating，butoverallcementindustryhasrealizeditsreversefromlosetobenefit，production—salesratehaskeptover98％,andthewholesectormaintainsrobustgrowth．Themainreasonofthissituationisthatthecostreductionbroughtaboutbythetechnologygrowth，forexample，newdryprocesscement’sunitproductionhasbeenreducedby50％．

2.2Theimprovedtechnologyofnewdryprocesscementequipmentoptimizesthecementsector’sstructure

SinceChinaentersitsFifth—TenYearProjectphase，newdryprocesscementtechnologyhasspedup，andthecementindustrystructurehasoptimized．Newdryprocesscementproductioncovers10％to15％ofthetotalcementproduction．Itisevenmoredelightedthatnewdryprocesscementequipmentandcraftsmanshiphaveimproved．Also，ithasbasicallyrealizedthatlarge—sizedequipmentcanbeproducedinChina，whichprovesthecompetitivenessofChina’scementindustry．Productioninvestmentofpertonclinkerhasbeenreducedfrom800-1200Yuanto200-300Yuan，whichcanpossessthecapabilitytocompetewithshaftkilninvestment．Thecostofclinkerinagreatnumberoflarge-sizedenterprisescanbelowerthanthatoftheshaftkilncement．

Thedevelopmentofnewdryprocesscementisfavoredbygovernmentsupport，marketdemand，diversifiedinvestment，andenterpriseindependence．

2．3Competitiveshaftkilnenterprisesbeginto

transformintonewdryprocess

Currently，alargescaleofenterprisesofshaftkilnenterprisehastransformedtodevelopnewdryprocess．In2002，51productionlineshavebeentakenintooperationinChina，amongwhich27aretransformedfromshaftkilnenterprises．It’sprovethatcementindustry’slimitationandrestructureembracedmarketprinciple．

2．4Theaverageproductionscaleofcemententerprisesisenlarged．

Thetotalsumofdomesticcemententerpriseshasreducedfrommorethan8000to4700plus．

Theaverageproductionscaleofcementindustryhasreachedto200thousandtonsfrom60thousandtons．Meanwhile，thenumberoflarge—sizedenterprisesinChinahasbeenincreased．Thetotalproductionof9cementgroupssupportedbytheNationalTenth-FiveYear

Projectwas32.6milliontons．covering4.7％ofnationaltotalproduction．In2002，thetotalannualproductionofthose9cementgroupsexceeded62million，covering7.5％ofthetotaldomesticproductioncapacityand50％ofnationalnewdryprocessproductioncapacity．

Allinall，China’scementindustryenjoyshealthydevelopment，andthedevelopmentofnewdryprocesscementisbroughtaboutbytherestructureofcementindustry，andmarket—driveninvestment．NosignofoverheatedcompetitionexistsinChina．

3TheTrendandRiskofCementIndustry

3．1ThedevelopmentspaceOfChinacementindustry

Thereportof16thSessionofChina’sCommunistPartypointedoutthatChinawillkeep7％GDPgrowthby2020．Currently，investmentisthemainfactorofeconomicgrowthandcementincrease．Itisconcluded，by2005，domesticcementconsumptionvolumewillkeepsteadygrowth．

Expertspredictthatiffixedassetinvestmentmaintains10％～12％growthinthelastthreeyearsoftheTenth-FiveYearProgramPeriod，domesticcementconsumptionwillincrease30～46milliontons，annualincreasespeedwillkeep4．2％～6.3％，aswell，domesticconsumptionisexpectedtoincrease53～69milliontonswithannualincreaseof7.2％～9％．

3.2Newdryprocesscementisthemosteffectivemethodtosolvetheproblemofrestructuringthecementindustry

Currentcementproductioncapacitydevelopsharmoniouslywiththetotaldemandofconsumptionmarket．WiththedevelopmentofChina’seconomicdevelopment，cementsectorhasgreatpotentia1．Thismeansthatshaftkiln，thebackwardprocessingmethod，stillhascertainmarketspace．That’swhyshaftkilnkeepsitsannual30milliontonsproduction．

Newdryprocesscementischaracterizedbyitsmaturedtechnology，sparedinvestment，lowercost，lessenergy—consumption，higherqualityandbenefitsandsoon．Sotosay，newdryprocesscementhasgreatdevelopingcapacity．

Sotoconclude，thebestwaytosatisfymarketdemand，adjustsectorstructureanddevelopChina’scementindustryistoseizetheopportunityofsupportingthedevelopmentofnewprocesscement．Itwillnotcauseoverheatedinvestment，butwillcurbthebackwardtechnology，speeduptheadjustmentofcementsector，aswellasreduceenergyconsumptionandimproveenvironmentprotection．Otherwise，Chinawilllosetheopportunityinthenewcycleofcementindustry’srestructure．

3.3TheRiskAnalysisofNewDryProcessCement

（1）Investmentrisk

Herefollowsinvestmentsourceanalysisofthe51linesofnewdryprocesscementinQ002．and132linesofnewdryprocessestablishedandtobeestablished．

Anamountof9.22billionYuanwasinvestedinbuilding51productionlinesin2002，whichwerecapableofproducing35.9milliontonsofcement．Theprojectiscompetitive，consideringitslowlevelofinvestmentmarkedby255Yuanperton．

Ananalysisofthecapitalsourceshowsthatamongtheexpensesoftheprojectscompleted，43.23％（3.98billionYuan）wasfrombankloans，36.23％（3.39billionYuan）fromcapitalraisedbytheenterprisesand15.4％（1420millionYuan）fromoverseasinvestment．Fundsotherthanbankloansconstitute56.77％0fthetotal,amongwhich53％（27programs）ofthetotalprogramswerefromprivateandforeignenterprises．Fundsraisedbyenterprisesarethemaincomponentoftheconstructioncapital，asshowninthefactthat70％～95％ofthetotalfundswereraisedbytheenterprisesthemselves．Amongtheprogramsscheduledtostartfrom2002to2004，52.76％willbefundedbybankloansand41.8％byenterprise-raisedcapita1.63.94％ofthecementprogramsofstate-ownedandstatestock-holdingenterpriseswillbefundedbybankloans，towhichattentionmustbepaidbecausethecapitalwouldbeatriskofincompetentproject．

Tosumup，consideringthefinancialrisksbornebythestate，todevelopthenewdryprocesscementisnotquiteaventure．

（2）Resourcesrisk

Chinaisabundantinlimestonedeposits．Thelimestonereservesasawholecanmeettheneedsofthecurrentproductionandfuturedevelopmentofourcountry．Butthesituationofsomecementprojectsunderconstructionshowsthatcertainenterprisesareblindintheirconstruction．Someenterprisesstartedprogramsrecklesslydespitethefactthatthereislittlelimestonedepositsaround．Littleimportancewasattachedtomineresourcesbysomeshaftkilnenterpriseswhichplannedtobuildlarge-scalenewdryprocesscementproductionlinesandsomeprivatecemententerprises.Productionlineswerebuiltbeforecapitalwasinvestedtoproveupdepositsandbuildthetransportationsystem．Suchbackwardconstructionmethodisboundtocauseseverewasteofcapitalandresourcesandwillalsocripplethesteadyproductionoftheenterprises．Tosummarize，effortsmustbepaidtoguideandregulatetheconductoftheenterprises，otherwiserisksoftheresourceswillloombecauseoftheirblindexploitationandutilization．

（3）Environmentrisk

Impactontheenvironmentmustbeattachedgreatimportancetointheplanningofnewdryprocesscementprojects．Environmentwillbepollutedandscenerywillbedamagedifcementfactoriesarebuiltnearfamousscenicspotsandbigcities．Severeeconomiclosswillbecausediflarge—scalecementprojectsareterminatedormoved．Somecementprojectsfundedbyprivateenterpriseswerebuiltwithoutstrictexaminationandapproval，resultinginthefactthatsomefactorieswerebuiltnearfamousscenicspots，causinggreatenvironmentalrisks．

Toconclude，blindexploitationandconstructionisthemajorprobleminthecurrentdevelopmentofChina’scementindustry，whichisprovedbythefactthatsomelocalgovernmentsandenterprisesstartedprograms（somewereverybackward）blindlywithoutconsiderationoftheconditionsofthemarket，technique，resources，capital，productionscale，environmentandtheirowncompetitiveability．Oncemarketdemandvaries．theseenterpriseswillfacetheproblemofdifficultoperationbecauseoftheincompetenceoftheirprojects．Suchcaseswillresultinwasteofcapitalandresources，environmentalpollution，andeventheincreaseofbadloansinthebanks，thusdestabilizingthemarket．Althoughcausesoftheseblindandlow-levelconstructionofrepeatedprojectsdiffer，greatattentionmustbepaidandimportancemustbeattachedtotheproblem．Theseproblemsmustnotbesolvedsimplisticallyandabruptly．butthrougheconomicandlegalmeansandwiththeassistanceofthelocalgovernmentsafterthoroughandcomprehensiveanalysis．

4EssentialsofCurrentMacroeconomicControl

4.1Strengthentheguideoftheindustrialpolicy

Industrialandsocialinvestmenttothecementindustrymustbeguidedappropriatelywitheffortspaidtoacceleratetheestablishingandpublicizingofthetradep