我国城市房地产泡沫的形成及其影响因素.docx
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我国城市房地产泡沫的形成及其影响因素
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我国城市房地产泡沫的形成及其影响因素
——基于1998-2007年面板数据的实证分析
摘要
随着中国经济的持续快速健康发展，房地产业在国民经济发展中的支柱产
业作用日趋明显，其能否快速、稳定、持续发展直接影响我国的经济增长及百
姓民生。
我国城市房地产价格持续走高，房地产泡沫所导致的高房价，不仅影
响了居民的一般消费（挤出效应），导致经济过热，成为引发通货膨胀的原因之
一，而且也影响了房地产自身的健康发展，因此，房地产市场的泡沫问题引起
了社会各界人士的强烈关注。
本文从房地产市场的微观和宏观层面对我国城市房地产泡沫的形成及其
影响因素进行了分析，根据理论分析建立模型，收集我国除拉萨外的30个省会
城市和大连、宁波、厦门、青岛、深圳5个单列市1998-2007十年间房地产业
的相关指标数据，运用面板数据的多元回归分析方法，对我国城市房地产泡沫
的形成进行实证分析，结果表明：
（1）城市人均居住面积、利率、房地产信贷
额与房地产价格的变动成负相关关系。
（2）城市人均可支配收入、土地交易价
格、货币供应量、房地产投资额与房地产价格的变动成正相关关系。
（3）城市
人口规模对房地产价格的变动影响不显著。
在此基础上从房地产金融政策、土
地市场调控、税费政策等方面提出促进我国城市房地产健康发展的政策建议。
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关键词：
房地产泡沫；影响因素；健康发展
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TheFormationandInfluencingFactorsoftheUrbanReal
EstateBubbleinChina
——AnEmpiricalAnalysisBasedonPanelDataof
1998-2007
ABSTRACT
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Asthecontinued,fastandhealthydevelopmentofChineseeconomy,thepillar
functionofrealestatehasbecomemoreobviousinnationaleconomydevelopment.
It’sfast,stableandcontinuesdevelopmentwillaffectthenationaleconomyriseand
lifelevelofcitizensdirectly.Thepriceofrealestategorisingfastrecently.The
highhousingpricewhichleadbytherealestatebubblewillnotonlyaffectthe
dailyconsumptionofcitizen,leadtooverheatedeconomyandinflation,butalso
affectthehealthydevelopmentofrealestateindustry.Hereby,Theproblemofreal
estatebubbleattractsthegreatconcernfrompeopleofallsocialcircles.
Thispaperanalysestheformationandinfluencingfactorsfortherealestate
bubbleofthecityinourcountryfromthemicroandmacroperspectiveofreal
estatemarket.Weanalysetheformaitonofrealestatebubblethroughtheory
analysisandbuildmolds,andcollecttherelateddataof30provincialcapitalcity
and5citiesspecificallydesignatedinthestateplan;DalianQingdaoXiamen
NingboShenzhengfromthedecadesof1998-2007,applyingthemultivariate
regressionanalysismethodonpaneldate,andwegettheconclusionthat
（1）The
averagelivingspaceofcitizen,interestrate,realestatecreditvolumehasanegative
correlationwithhousingpricerising.
（2）Averagedisposableincomeofcitizen,
priceoflandtransactions,supplyofcurrency,realestateinvestmentvolumehasa
positivecorrelationwithhousingpricechanging.（3）Thesizeoftheurban
populationdonothasgreataffectiontohousingpricerising.Onthebaseof
analysis,wepresentproposalfromtheaspectofrealestatefinancepolicy,land
marketadjustmentandtaxpolicyinordertopushforwardthehealthydevelopment
ofcityrealestateindustryinournation.
Keywords：
Realestatebubble；Influencingfactor；Healthydevelopment
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目录
第一章绪论...........................................................................................................................................1
1.1选题背景和意义.............................................................................................................1?
1.2国内外研究综述..............................................................................................................1
1.2.1房地产泡沫产生的原因研究..........................................................................2?
1.2.2房地产泡沫的测算方法的研究......................................................................3?
1.2.3房地产泡沫的实证研究....................................................................................4?
1.3工作假说和研究目标........................................................................................................5
1.3.1工作假说..................................................................................................................5?
1.3.2研究目标..................................................................................................................6?
1.4技术路线和研究框架........................................................................................................6
1.4.1技术路线.....................................................................................................................6
1.4.2研究框架.....................................................................................................................7
1.5研究方法和数据来源........................................................................................................8?
1.5.1研究方法.....................................................................................................................8
1.5.2数据来源.....................................................................................................................8
1.6可能创新和不足之处........................................................................................................8?
1.6.1可能创新.....................................................................................................................8
1.6.2不足之处.....................................................................................................................8
第二章房地产泡沫形成的理论基础..........................................................................................9
2.1泡沫的定义和理解............................................................................................................9
2.2房地产泡沫........................................................................................................................10
2.3从微观理论看房地产泡沫的产生...............................................................................10
2.4从反射理论看房地产泡沫的形成...............................................................................13
2.5从地租理论看房地产价格的泡沫部分......................................................................14
第三章我国城市房地产泡沫的历史与现状分析...............................................................16
3.1我国房地产发展的历史及现状分析..........................................................................16?
3.1.1我国房地产发展历史演进.................................................................................16
3.1.2我国城市房地产发展现状分析........................................................................16
3.2房地产泡沫衡量标准及我国房地产泡沫的判定....................................................18
3.2.1房地产泡沫的含义和表现形式........................................................................18
3.2.2房地产泡沫的相关衡量指标............................................................................18
3.2.3我国城市房地产泡沫的判定............................................................................19
3.3我国城市房地产泡沫的特征........................................................................................21
3.4我国城市房地产泡沫对经济发展的影响.................................................................21
3.4.1加大房地产金融风险..........................................................................................21
3.4.2鼓励投机和腐败行为..........................................................................................22?
3.4.3造成社会资源浪费...............................................................................................22
3.4.4进一步拉大贫富差距..........................................................................................23
第四章我国城市房地产泡沫形成的微观机制和宏观基础...........................................24
4.1我国城市房地产泡沫形成的微观机制......................................................................24
4.1.1需求因素分析........................................................................................................24
4.1.2供给因素分析........................................................................................................24
4.1.3市场结构因素分析...............................................................................................25
4.1.4预期因素分析........................................................................................................25
4.2我国城市房地产泡沫形成的宏观基础......................................................................25
4.2.1货币金融政策分析...............................................................................................25
4.2.2税费政策分析........................................................................................................26
4.2.3土地政策分析........................................................................................................26
4.2.4监管制度分析........................................................................................................26
4.3我国城市房地产泡沫的影响因素分析......................................................................27
第五章我国城市房地产泡沫影响因素的实证分析..........................................................29
5.1模型的选取........................................................................................................................29
5.2指标的选取及数据来源.................................................................................................29
5.3回归分析............................................................................................................................30
5.4结论.....................................................................................................................................31
第六章促进我国城市房地产健康发展的政策建议..........................................................32
6.1严格监管房地产金融......................................................................................................32
6.2分离土地市场的调控职能与收益职能......................................................................32
6.3规范房地产价格相关的税费体系...............................................................................32
6.4建立房地产价格异常波动的预警与防范机制........................................................33
第七章结论与展望..........................................................................................................................34
7.1结论.....................................................................................................................................34
7.2进一步研究的展望..........................................................................................................34
参考文献.................................................................................................................................................36
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图表格清单?
图1-1技术路线图…………………………………………………………………………………7
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表3.11998-2008年全国70个大中城市房屋销售价格涨幅…………………17
表3.22000-2008年中国房地产开发投资额占GD
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