PPP养老模式复习课程Word文档格式.docx

PPP养老模式复习课程Word文档格式.docx

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WAISAHMADBAHEEN

2017280350

Contents

1.Introduction

Apublic-privatepartnershipisacooperativearrangementbetweentwoormorepublicandprivatesectors,typicallyofalong-termnature（GraemeA.Hodge）.PPPsofteninvolveacontractbetweenapublicsectorauthorityandaprivateparty,inwhichtheprivatepartyprovidesapublicserviceorprojectandassumessubstantialfinancial,technicalandoperationalriskintheproject.

Public-privatepartnership（PPPs）areanincreasinglycommonmodelfordeliveringinfrastructureprojectsglobally（Hovy）.OneofthekeymotivationsforgovernmentstoprocureanddeliverInfrastructureprojectviaPPPmodelsistheassumptionthatPPPsdelivergreatervalueformoney（VFM）thanconventionaldeliverymethods.However,duetothelongconcessionperiodandlargeamountofinvestment,therisksassociatedwithPPPprojectsshouldnotbeunderestimated.Generally,riskmanagementincludes:

riskidentification,riskassessmentandriskresponses（PMBOK,2004）.AllocatingrisksinPPPs,however,isinherentlychallenging（Hovy）.Risktransfertotheprivatesectorcomesataprice,andtransferringrisksthatthepublicagencyisbetterabletomanageislikelytoerodeVFM.

Chinaisfacingarapidgrowthofpeoplewhoseageis60yearsorabove,whichispredictedtodoubleoverthenextdecade.Bythe2014thenumberofelderlypeoplewhoseagewas60orabovehadreached210million.Andisprojectedtoexceed400millionoverthenextdecade,which

Figure1PercentageofOlderPopulation

isanincreaseof28.7percent,from15.5percentasofyear2014.MorethanhalfofChineseelderlyagepeoplearelivingontheirown.Andthispercentageisevenhigherinthelargeandmediumcities.Accordingtoaresearchresult,about70percentofolderadultsarelivingaloneorwithaspouseonlyThustofacethecurrentrapidgrowthofagingprobleminChina,governmenthasfocusedonestablishingsocialinfrastructuresandimprovinghealthcareandwell-beingofpeople.Apossiblewayofcombatingtheagingproblemisseeminglyestablishingapublic-privatepartnershipprojectforaginginplace.

Traditionally,Chineseolderadultsremainedathome,caredbyfamilymembersratherthanbylong-termcareinstitutions.Duetothe“emptynest”problem,anincreasingnumberofolderadultswillbeinneedofexternalcareservices,buttheavailabilityofaffordable,publicnursinghomesislimiteddespitethegovernment’scontinuedeffortstoexpandthecapacity.（Luo）.

Public-privatepartnershipventureisaninnovativeAginginPlacemodelfortheelderlyofferingcarecoordinationandhealthcareservicestoolderadultsresidinginspeciallydesignedseniorapartments,otherseniorprivateorpubliccongregatehousing,orintheirownhomesinthecommunity.Aginginplaceisamuchhealthierapproachascomparewithlong-termcaredeliverytrajectorythatforcesafrailolderpersontomovefromonesettingtoanotherasneedschangeandresultsinmentalandphysicaldeterioration（（Karen）.

Aquestionarisesastohowgovernmentcanbestdrivedesirableoutcomes,whileenduringthattheprivatesectoracceptsanappropriatelevelofrelatedriskandisgivenscopetoinnovateindesigningtheinfrastructure.AndashowgovernmentcanensureasuccessfuldeliveryofsuchlongtermAginginPlaceproject（fosterinfrastructure,2012）.ForAginginPlacetobesuccessfulolderadultsmustliveinanenvironmentsupportiveofindependence,andcaremustbecoordinatedthroughoutthehealthcaresystem（Karen）.

2.Background:

AginginPlaceinChina

Ifinterpretedintermsofrelaxationofrules,someofthepensionprogramscurrentlyonthemarketareactuallyproductsofconcertedeffortsbetweenthegovernmentandenterprisesandcanbecalledPPPinabroadsense.

AsofJune30th2016,therewere239nationalpensionPPPproject,accountingfor2.57%ofthe9,285PPPprojectsnationwide.ThenumberofPPPprojectsaimedatmedicalandhealth（433）incomparetomostlyusedPPPdeliveryprojectssuchasengineering（3241）,transportation（1132）,areadevelopment（554）andotherfields,arerelativelysmall.

Figure2PPPProjectsPortion

AsofJune30th2016,thetotalinvestmentinpensionprojectsnationwidereached141.1billionyuan,accountingfor1.33%ofthetotalinvestmentinthecountry’sPPPprojectsof10.6trillionyuan.

AsofJune30th2016,ShandongandGuizhouprovinceshavethelargestnumberofpensionprogramsthatusethePPPmodel,46and40respectively.FollowedbyHenan（21）,Sichuan（19）andXinjiang（19）,respectively.Oftheeightprovincesandmunicipalitiesthataredirectlyunderthecentralgovernment,therearenoPPPpensionprogramsestablishedinthesecities,includingShanghai.

AsofJune30th2016,ofthe239pensionPPPprojectsinthecountry,thenumberofprojectsinvestedinretirementstandat137（57%）whichislargerincomparetoprojects,suchaselderlyapartmentprojects50（21%）,healthcareprojects48（20%）andotherfieldsprojects4（2%）,respectively.

Figure3NumberofPesionPPPProjects

Asoneofthefinancialinstrumentsusedbythegovernmenttoboostthedevelopmentofoldindustries,thePPPmodelhasdrawnmuchattentionduetothehighdegreeofgovernmentsupport,thelong-termstabilizationofthemarketdemandtherelativelytransparentchargingpricingmechanism.However,theroleofPPPmodelinthefieldofAginginPlacehasnotyetbeenbroughtintofullplay.Governmentleverageneedstobeincreasedtofacilitatetheeffectiveparticipationofdiversesocialcapital.

3.IdentifyingriskinPPPprojects

Riskmanagementbeginswithriskidentificationandclassification（PMBOK,2004）.Hence,it’simportanttoidentifytheriskinPPPprojects,andtherisksallocatedwithAginginPlaceproject.InaPPP,theprivatesectorpartnerhasanincentivetocompleteconstructionon,oraheadof,timeandprovidehigh-qualityservices,aspaymentsdonottypicallycommenceuntiltheassethasbeenbuiltandanagreedlevelofserviceisbeingprovided.Onavalue-weightedaveragebasis,PPPprojectsaredelivered3%aheadofschedulecomparedto24%behindschedulefornon-PPPprojects.Asshownbelow:

Figure4DeliveryAdvantage

WithreferencetothecommonlyacceptedacademicanalysismethodsandcombiningwiththecharacteristicsoftheAginginPlaceprojects,theriskofPPPprojectinAginginPlacearedividedintothreelevels:

macrorisk,mid-rangerisk,andmicrorisk.

i.MacroRisk

Macroriskistheriskthatcomesfromtheenvironmentinfluencewheretheprojectislocated.Specificallyreferstothecountry,industryandnaturalrisks,suchaspoliticalandlegalconditions,economicconditions,socialconditions,andclimateconditions.Essentially,theserisksstemfromtheriskeventsthatoccuroutsidetheprojectssystemboundaries,impactingtheprojectitselfandthepost-operationaloutputsacrosstheprojectssystemboundaries.PPPprojectsinAginginPlaceshouldalsotakeintoaccounttherelevantlegalpolicies,socialconcepts,marketdemandandotherriskfactors.Macro-riskisdividedintofivemajorcategories:

politics,economy,law,societyandnaturalenvironment.Asshownbelow:

Figure5Macro-riskFactorsinPPPAginginPlaceprojects

ii.Mid-rangerisk

Themid-rangeriskarisesfromtheprojectitself,andtheriskeventsandtheirconsequencesoccurwithintheproject’ssystemboundaries,reflectingtheimplementationofthePPPproject.Themid-rangeriskaredividedintofourdifferentfactors:

finance,design,implementation,andlogistic.Asshownbelow:

Figure6Mid-ragerisksinPPPAginginPlaceprojects

iii.Micro-Risk

Themicro-riskisrelatedtoeachparticipantoftheprojectandistheriskcausedbythedevelopmentandchangeofvarioustypesofcontractualrelationshipsbetweenvariousstakeholdersintheprocessofprocessofprojectimplementation,anditalsobelongstoendogenousrisk.Micro-risksinthisarticleiscarriedoutfromtheaspectofcooperationamongpartnersandthird-partyresponsibilities.Themostimportantriskarisesfromtheconflictofinterestbetweengovernment,publicsectorandthesocialcapitalparticipants.Thepublicsectorinterestsaremainlyembodiedintherealizationofsocialbenefits.Theactionsofsocialcapitalparticipantsarecompletelyfreeandprofit-driven.Conflictsofinterestareinevitable,resultinginariskperiodthataffectstheoutputoftheproject.Therelationshipisshownbelow:

Figure7Micro-RisksinPPPAginginPlaceProjects

4.AllocatingRiskinPPPAginginPlaceProject

Thegoalofprojectsharingistomaximizethesatisfactionofpublicandprivatesectoroftheplansothattheresultofriskallocationwouldreducetheprobabilityofriskoccurrenceandriskmanagementcost,andtomakePPPprojectattractivetoallparties.Thisrequiresthattheriskappetiteofdifferentrisk-bearingentitiesshouldbeestablishedandacorrespondingrisk-sharingmechanismshouldbeestablishedsothattheprojectcanachieveawin-winsituation.

Consideringhugeinvestment,longconstructionandoperationperiods,andmanyuncertaintiesintheconcessioncouldhappen,inadditionthecomplicatedrelationshipamongtherisk-bearingentities,theriskshouldbeallocatedtothepartybestabletomanagethem.Inotherwords,thepartythatisbestabletounderstandarisk,controllikelihoodoftheriskoccurringand/orminimizetheimpactoftheriskshouldalsoberesponsibleformanagingit（PaluineHovy,2015）.

1.

a）Government

ThepoliticalenvironmentriskandlegalriskfacedbypensionPPPprojectsmainlycomefromthes