Competing on Analytics HBR classic 10 哈佛商业评论经典案例 1001.docx
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CompetingonAnalyticsHBRclassic10哈佛商业评论经典案例1001
CompetingonAnalytics
by ThomasH.Davenport
Somecompanieshavebuilttheirverybusinessesontheirabilitytocollect,analyze,andactondata.Everycompanycanlearnfromwhatthesefirmsdo.
ReadtheHBRInBrief
Weallknowthepowerofthekillerapp.Overtheyears,groundbreakingsystemsfromcompaniessuchasAmericanAirlines(electronicreservations),OtisElevator(predictivemaintenance),andAmericanHospitalSupply(onlineordering)havedramaticallyboostedtheircreators’revenuesandreputations.Theseheralded—andcoveted—applicationsamassedandapplieddatainwaysthatupendedcustomerexpectationsandoptimizedoperationstounprecedenteddegrees.Theytransformedtechnologyfromasupportingtoolintoastrategicweapon.
Companiesquestingforkillerappsgenerallyfocusalltheirfirepowerontheoneareathatpromisestocreatethegreatestcompetitiveadvantage.Butanewbreedofcompanyisuppingthestakes.OrganizationssuchasAmazon,Harrah’s,CapitalOne,andtheBostonRedSoxhavedominatedtheirfieldsbydeployingindustrial-strengthanalyticsacrossawidevarietyofactivities.Inessence,theyaretransformingtheirorganizationsintoarmiesofkillerappsandcrunchingtheirwaytovictory.
Organizationsarecompetingonanalyticsnotjustbecausetheycan—businesstodayisawashindataanddatacrunchers—butalsobecausetheyshould.Atatimewhenfirmsinmanyindustriesoffersimilarproductsandusecomparabletechnologies,businessprocessesareamongthelastremainingpointsofdifferentiation.Andanalyticscompetitorswringeverylastdropofvaluefromthoseprocesses.So,likeothercompanies,theyknowwhatproductstheircustomerswant,buttheyalsoknowwhatpricesthosecustomerswillpay,howmanyitemseachwillbuyinalifetime,andwhattriggerswillmakepeoplebuymore.Likeothercompanies,theyknowcompensationcostsandturnoverrates,buttheycanalsocalculatehowmuchpersonnelcontributetoordetractfromthebottomlineandhowsalarylevelsrelatetoindividuals’performance.Likeothercompanies,theyknowwheninventoriesarerunninglow,buttheycanalsopredictproblemswithdemandandsupplychains,toachievelowratesofinventoryandhighratesofperfectorders.
Andanalyticscompetitorsdoallthosethingsinacoordinatedway,aspartofanoverarchingstrategychampionedbytopleadershipandpusheddowntodecisionmakersateverylevel.Employeeshiredfortheirexpertisewithnumbersortrainedtorecognizetheirimportancearearmedwiththebestevidenceandthebestquantitativetools.Asaresult,theymakethebestdecisions:
bigandsmall,everyday,overandoverandover.
Althoughnumerousorganizationsareembracinganalytics,onlyahandfulhaveachievedthislevelofproficiency.Butanalyticscompetitorsaretheleadersintheirvariedfields—consumerproducts,finance,retail,andtravelandentertainmentamongthem.AnalyticshasbeeninstrumentaltoCapitalOne,whichhasexceeded20%growthinearningspershareeveryyearsinceitbecameapubliccompany.IthasallowedAmazontodominateonlineretailingandturnaprofitdespiteenormousinvestmentsingrowthandinfrastructure.Insports,therealsecretweaponisn’tsteroids,butstats,asdramaticvictoriesbytheBostonRedSox,theNewEnglandPatriots,andtheOaklandA’sattest.
Atsuchorganizations,virtuositywithdataisoftenpartofthebrand.Progressivemakesadvertisinghayfromitsdetailedparsingofindividualinsurancerates.Amazoncustomerscanwatchthecompanylearningaboutthemasitsservicegrowsmoretargetedwithfrequentpurchases.ThankstoMichaelLewis’sbest-sellingbookMoneyball,whichdemonstratedthepowerofstatisticsinprofessionalbaseball,theOaklandA’sarealmostasfamousfortheirgeekynumbercrunchingastheyarefortheirathleticprowess.
Toidentifycharacteristicssharedbyanalyticscompetitors,IandtwoofmycolleaguesatBabsonCollege’sWorkingKnowledgeResearchCenterstudied32organizationsthathavemadeacommitmenttoquantitative,fact-basedanalysis.Elevenofthoseorganizationsweclassifiedasfull-boreanalyticscompetitors,meaningtopmanagementhadannouncedthatanalyticswaskeytotheirstrategies;theyhadmultipleinitiativesunderwayinvolvingcomplexdataandstatisticalanalysis,andtheymanagedanalyticalactivityattheenterprise(notdepartmental)level.
Thisarticlelaysoutthecharacteristicsandpracticesofthesestatisticalmastersanddescribessomeoftheverysubstantialchangesothercompaniesmustundergoinordertocompeteonquantitativeturf.Asonewouldexpect,thetransformationrequiresasignificantinvestmentintechnology,theaccumulationofmassivestoresofdata,andtheformulationofcompanywidestrategiesformanagingthedata.Butatleastasimportant,itrequiresexecutives’vocal,unswervingcommitmentandwillingnesstochangethewayemployeesthink,work,andaretreated.AsGaryLoveman,CEOofanalyticscompetitorHarrah’s,frequentlyputsit,“Dowethinkthisistrue?
Ordoweknow?
”
AnatomyofanAnalyticsCompetitor
Oneanalyticscompetitorthat’satthetopofitsgameisMarriottInternational.Overthepast20years,thecorporationhashonedtoascienceitssystemforestablishingtheoptimalpriceforguestrooms(thekeyanalyticsprocessinhotels,knownasrevenuemanagement).Today,itsambitionsarefargrander.ThroughitsTotalHotelOptimizationprogram,Marriotthasexpandeditsquantitativeexpertisetoareassuchasconferencefacilitiesandcatering,andmaderelatedtoolsavailableovertheInternettopropertyrevenuemanagersandhotelowners.Ithasdevelopedsystemstooptimizeofferingstofrequentcustomersandassessthelikelihoodofthosecustomers’defectingtocompetitors.Ithasgivenlocalrevenuemanagersthepowertooverridethesystem’srecommendationswhencertainlocalfactorscan’tbepredicted(likethelargenumberofHurricaneKatrinaevacueesarrivinginHouston).Thecompanyhasevencreatedarevenueopportunitymodel,whichcomputesactualrevenuesasapercentageoftheoptimalratesthatcouldhavebeencharged.Thatfigurehasgrownfrom83%to91%asMarriott’srevenue-managementanalyticshastakenrootthroughouttheenterprise.Thewordisoutamongpropertyownersandfranchisees:
Ifyouwanttosqueezethemostrevenuefromyourinventory,Marriott’sapproachistheticket.
Clearly,organizationssuchasMarriottdon’tbehaveliketraditionalcompanies.Customersnoticethedifferenceineveryinteraction;employeesandvendorslivethedifferenceeveryday.Ourstudyfoundthreekeyattributesamonganalyticscompetitors:
Widespreaduseofmodelingandoptimization.
Anycompanycangeneratesimpledescriptivestatisticsaboutaspectsofitsbusiness—averagerevenueperemployee,forexample,oraverageordersize.Butanalyticscompetitorslookwellbeyondbasicstatistics.Thesecompaniesusepredictivemodelingtoidentifythemostprofitablecustomers—plusthosewiththegreatestprofitpotentialandtheonesmostlikelytocanceltheiraccounts.Theypooldatageneratedin-houseanddataacquiredfromoutsidesources(whichtheyanalyzemoredeeplythandotheirlessstatisticallysavvycompetitors)foracomprehensiveunderstandingoftheircustomers.Theyoptimizetheirsupplychainsandcanthusdeterminetheimpactofanunexpectedconstraint,simulatealternatives,androuteshipmentsaroundproblems.Theyestablishpricesinrealtimetogetthehighestyieldpossiblefromeachoftheircustomertransactions.Theycreatecomplexmodelsofhowtheiroperationalcostsrelatetotheirfinancialperformance.
Leadersinanalyticsalsousesophisticatedexperimentstomeasuretheoverallimpactor“lift”ofinterventionstrategiesandthenapplytheresultstocontinuouslyimprovesubsequentanalyses.CapitalOne,forexample,conductsmorethan30,000experimentsayear,withdifferentinterestrates,incentives,direct-mailpackaging,andothervariables.ItsgoalistomaximizethelikelihoodboththatpotentialcustomerswillsignupforcreditcardsandthattheywillpaybackCapitalOne.
Progressiveemployssimilarexperimentsusingwidelyavailableinsuranceindustrydata.Thecompanydefinesnarrowgroups,orcells,ofcustomers:
forexample,motorcycleridersages30andabove,withcollegeeducations,creditscoresoveracertainlevel,andnoaccidents.Foreachcell,thecompanyperformsaregressionanalysistoidentifyfactorsthatmostcloselycorrelatewiththelossesthatgroupengenders.Itthensetspricesforthecells,whichshouldenablethecompanytoearnaprofitacrossaportfolioofcustomergroups,andusessimulationsoftwaretotestthefinancialimplicationsofthosehypotheses.Withthisapproach,Progressivecanprofitablyinsurecustomersintraditionallyhigh-riskcategories.Otherinsurersrejecthigh-riskcustomersoutofhand,withoutbotheringtodelvemoredeeplyintothedata(althougheventraditionalcompetitors,suchasAllstate,arestartingtoembraceanalyticsasastrategy).
Anenterpriseapproach.
Analyticscompetitorsunderstandthatmostbusinessfunctions—eventhose,likemarketing,thathavehistoricallydependedonartratherthanscience—canbeimprovedwithsophisticatedquantitativetechniques.Theseorganizationsdon’tgainadvantagefromonekillerapp,butratherfrommultipleapplicationssupportingmanypartsofthebusiness—and,inafewcases,beingrolledoutforusebycustomersandsuppliers.
UPSembodiestheevolutionfromtargetedanalyticsusertocomprehensiveanalyticscompetitor.Althoughthecompanyisamongtheworld’smostrigorouspractitionersofoperationsresearchandindustrialeng