克鲁格曼第八版国际金融下答案Chap16.docx

克鲁格曼第八版国际金融下答案Chap16.docx

《克鲁格曼第八版国际金融下答案Chap16.docx》由会员分享，可在线阅读，更多相关《克鲁格曼第八版国际金融下答案Chap16.docx（11页珍藏版）》请在冰点文库上搜索。

克鲁格曼第八版国际金融下答案Chap16

Chapter16

OutputandtheExchangeRate

intheShortRun

1 ChapterOrganization

DeterminantsofAggregateDemandinanOpenEconomy

  DeterminantsofConsumptionDemand

  DeterminantsoftheCurrentAccount

  HowRealExchangeRateChangesAffecttheCurrentAccount

  HowDisposableIncomeChangesAffecttheCurrentAccount

TheEquationofAggregateDemand

  TheRealExchangeRateandAggregateDemand

  RealIncomeandAggregateDemand

HowOutputisDeterminedintheShortRun

OutputMarketEquilibriumintheShortRun:

TheDDSchedule

  Output,theExchangeRate,andOutputMarketEquilibrium

  DerivingtheDDSchedule

  FactorsthatShifttheDDSchedule

AssetMarketEquilibriumintheShortRun:

TheAASchedule

  Output,theExchangeRate,andAssetMarketEquilibrium

  DerivingtheAASchedule

  FactorsthatShifttheAASchedule

Short-RunEquilibriumfortheEconomy:

PuttingtheDDandAASchedulesTogether

TemporaryChangesinMonetaryandFiscalPolicy

  MonetaryPolicy

  FiscalPolicy

  PoliciestoMaintainFullEmployment

InflationBiasandOtherProblemsofPolicyFormulation

PermanentShiftsinMonetaryandFiscalPolicy

  APermanentIncreaseintheMoneySupply

  AdjustmenttoaPermanentIncreaseintheMoneySupply

  APermanentFiscalExpansion

MacroeconomicPoliciesandtheCurrentAccount

GradualTradeAdjustmentandCurrentAccountDynamics

  TheJ-Curve

  Exchange-RatePass-ThroughandInflation

  Box:

ExchangeRatesandtheCurrentAccount

Summary

AppendixI:

IntertemporalTradeandConsumptionDemand

AppendixII:

TheMarshall-LernerConditionandEmpiricalEstimatesofTradeElasticities

OnlineAppendix:

TheIS-LMandtheDD-AAModel

2 ChapterOverview

Thischapterintegratesthepreviousanalysisofexchangeratedeterminationwithamodelofshort-runoutputdeterminationinanopeneconomy.ThemodelpresentedissimilarinspirittotheclassicMundell-Flemingmodel,butthediscussiongoesbeyondthestandardpresentationinitscontrastoftheeffectsoftemporaryversuspermanentpolicies.Thedistinctionbetweentemporaryandpermanentpoliciesallowsforananalysisofdynamicpathsofadjustmentratherthanjustcomparativestatics.ThisdynamicanalysisbringsinthepossibilityofaJ-curveresponseofthecurrentaccounttocurrencydepreciation.Thechapterconcludeswithadiscussionofexchange-ratepass-through,thatis,theresponseofimportpricestoexchangeratemovements.

Thechapterbeginswiththedevelopmentofanopen-economyfixed-pricemodel（anonlineAppendixdiscussestherelationshipbetweentheIS-LMmodelandtheanalysisinthischapter）.AnaggregatedemandfunctionisderivedusingaKeynesian-crossdiagraminwhichtherealexchangerateservesasashiftparameter.Anominalcurrencydepreciationincreasesoutputbystimulatingexportsandreducingimports,givenforeignanddomesticprices,fiscalpolicy,andinvestmentlevels.Thisyieldsapositivelyslopedoutput-marketequilibrium（DD）scheduleinexchangerate-outputspace.Anegativelyslopedasset-marketequilibrium（AA）schedulecompletesthemodel.Thederivationofthisschedulefollowsfromtheanalysisofpreviouschapters.Forstudentswhohavealreadytakenintermediatemacroeconomics,youmaywanttopointoutthattheintuitionbehindtheslopeoftheAAcurveisidenticaltothatoftheLMcurve,withtheadditionalrelationshipofinterestparityprovidingthelinkbetweentheclosed-economyLMcurveandtheopen-economyAAcurve.AswiththeLMcurve,higherincomeincreasesmoneydemandandraisesthehome-currencyinterestrate（givenrealbalances）.Inanopeneconomy,higherinterestratesrequirecurrencyappreciationtosatisfyinterestparity（foragivenfutureexpectedexchangerate）.

Theeffectsoftemporarypoliciesaswellastheshort-runandlong-runeffectsofpermanentpoliciescanbestudiedinthecontextoftheDD-AAmodelifweidentifytheexpectedfutureexchangeratewiththelong-runexchangerateexaminedinChapters14and15.Inlinewiththisinterpretation,temporarypoliciesaredefinedtobethosewhichleavetheexpectedexchangerateunchanged,whilepermanentpoliciesarethosewhichmovetheexpectedexchangeratetoitsnewlong-runlevel.Asintheanalysisinearlierchapters,inthelong-run,priceschangetoclearmarkets（ifnecessary）.Whiletheassumptionsconcerningtheexpectationaleffectsoftemporaryandpermanentpoliciesareunrealisticasanexactdescriptionofaneconomy,theyarepedagogicallyusefulbecausetheyallowstudentstograsphowdifferingmarketexpectationsaboutthedurationofpoliciescanaltertheirqualitativeeffects.Studentsmayfindthedistinctionbetweentemporaryandpermanent,ontheonehand,andbetweenshortrunandlongrun,ontheother,abitconfusingatfirst.Itisprobablyworthwhiletospendafewminutesdiscussingthistopic.

Bothtemporaryandpermanentincreasesinmoneysupplyexpandoutputintheshortrunthroughexchangeratedepreciation.Thelong-runanalysisofapermanentmonetarychangeonceagainshowshowthewell-knownDornbuschovershootingresultcanoccur.Temporaryexpansionaryfiscalpolicyraisesoutputintheshortrunandcausestheexchangeratetoappreciate.Permanentfiscalexpansion,however,hasnoeffectonoutputevenintheshortrun.Thereasonforthisisthat,giventheassumptionsofthemodel,thecurrencyappreciationinresponsetopermanentfiscalexpansioncompletely“crowdsout”exports.Thisisaconsequenceoftheeffectofapermanentfiscalexpansionontheexpectedlong-runexchangeratewhichshiftsinwardtheasset-marketequilibriumcurve.ThismodelcanbeusedtoexplaintheconsequencesofU.S.fiscalandmonetarypolicybetween1979and1984.Themodelexplainstherecessionof1982andtheappreciationofthedollarasaresultoftightmonetaryandloosefiscalpolicy.

Thechapterconcludeswithsomediscussionofreal-worldmodificationsofthebasicmodel.Recentexperiencecastsdoubtonatight,unvaryingrelationshipbetweenmovementsinthenominalexchangerateandshiftsincompetitivenessandthusbetweennominalexchangeratemovementsandmovementsinthetradebalanceasdepictedintheDD-AAmodel.Exchange-ratepass-throughislessthancompleteandthusnominalexchangeratemovementsarenottranslatedone-for-oneintochangesintherealexchangerate.Also,thecurrentaccountmayworsenimmediatelyaftercurrencydepreciation.ThisJ-curveeffectoccursbecauseoftimelagsindeliveriesandbecauseoflowelasticitiesofdemandintheshortrunascomparedtothelongrun.Thechaptercontainsadiscussionofthewayinwhichtheanalysisofthemodelwouldbeaffectedbytheinclusionofincompleteexchange-ratepass-throughandtime-varyingelasticities.AppendixIIprovidesfurtherinformationontradeelasticitieswithapresentationoftheMarshall-Lernerconditionsandareportingofestimatesoftheimpact,short-runandlong-runelasticitiesofdemandforinternationaltradeinmanufacturedgoodsforanumberofcountries.

3 AnswerstoTextbookProblems

1.Adeclineininvestmentdemanddecreasesthelevelofaggregatedemandforanyleveloftheexchangerate.Thus,adeclineininvestmentdemandcausestheDDcurvetoshifttotheleft.

2.Atariffisataxontheconsumptionofimports.Thedemandfordomesticgoods,andthusthelevel

ofaggregatedemand,willbehigherforanyleveloftheexchangerate.ThisisdepictedinFigure16.1asarightwardshiftintheoutputmarketschedulefromDDtoDD.Ifthetariffistemporary,this

istheonlyeffect,andoutputwillriseeventhoughtheexchangerateappreciatesastheeconomy

movesfromPoints0to1.Ifthetariffispermanent,however,thelong-runexpectedexchangerateappreciates,sotheassetmarketscheduleshiftstoAA.Theappreciationofthecurrencyissharper

inthiscase.Ifoutputisinitiallyatfullemployment,thenthereisnochangeinoutputduetoapermanenttariff.

Figure16.1

3.Atemporaryfiscalpolicyshiftaffectsemploymentandoutput,evenifthegovernmentmaintainsabalancedbudget.Anintuitiveexplanationforthisreliesuponthedifferentpropensitiestoconsume

ofthegovernmentandoftaxpayers.Ifthegovernmentspends$1moreandfinancesthisspending

bytaxingthepublic$1more,aggregatedemandwillhaverisenbecausethegovernmentspendstheentire$1,whilethepublicreducesitsspendingbylessthan$1（choosingtoreduceitssavingaswellasitsconsumption）.Theultimateeffectonaggregatedemandisevenlargerthanthisfirstrounddifferencebetweengovernmentandpublicspendingpropensities,sincethefirstroundgeneratessubsequentspending.（Ofcourse,currencyappreciationstillpreventspermanentfiscalshiftsfromaffectingoutputinourmodel.）

4.ApermanentfallinprivateaggregatedemandcausestheDDcurvetoshiftinwardandtotheleftand,becausetheexpectedfutureexchangeratedepreciates,theAAcurveshiftsoutwardandtotheright.Thesetwoshiftsresultinnoeffectonoutput,however,forthesamereasonthatapermanentfiscalexpansionhasnoeffectonoutput.Theneteffectisadepreciationinthenominalexchangerateand,becausepriceswillnotchange,acorrespondingrealexchangeratedepreciation.Amacroeconomicpolicyresponsetothiseventwouldnotbewarranted.

5.Figure16.2canbeusedtoshowthatanypermanentfiscalexpansionworsensthecurrentaccount.

Inthisdiagram,thescheduleXXrepresentscombinationsoftheexchangerateandincomeforwhichthecurrentaccountisinbalance.PointsaboveandtotheleftofXXrepresentcurrentaccountsurplus,andpointsbelowandtotherightrepresentcurrentaccountdeficit.Apermanentfiscalex