国际金融第八章课件.ppt

国际金融第八章课件.ppt

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1,PartIIMacroPoliciesforOpenEconomies,Focusonmacroeconomicperformance.8Howdoestheopenmacroeconomywork?

9Internalandexternalbalancewithfixedexchangerates10Floatingexchangeratesandinternalbalance,2,macroeconomicperformance（宏观经济运行）thebehavior（变化）ofacountrysoutput,jobs,andpricesinthefaceofchangingworldconditions.,CHAPTER8,HowDoestheOpenMacroeconomyWork?

开放的宏观经济是如何运行的？

4,Frameworkofthischapter,Theperformanceofanationaleconomy一国经济的状况EquilibriumGDPandspendingmultipliers均衡GDP和支出乘数Threemarkets三个市场（产品、货币和外汇市场）,5,Theperformanceofanationaleconomy,Howwellisacountryseconomyperforming?

Wejudgetheperformanceofanationaleconomyagainsttwoobjectives.Internalbalanceandexternalbalance.,6,InternalBalanceFullemployment,oranacceptablylowunemploymentratePricestability,oranacceptablylowinflationrate,7,ExternalbalanceSustainable（能保持一定水平的）balanceofpaymentswiththerestoftheworldUsefulindicator:

Officialsettlementsbalanceapproximatelyequaltozero（sothatthecountryisnotlosingofficialinternationalreservesoracquiringunwantedofficialinternationalreserves）,8,Ourdiscussionherefocusonthecountryscurrentaccount.Thegoalhereneednotbeazerobalance.,9,Aframeworkformacroeconomicanalysisp164,AnalysisonthebehavioroftheeconomyintheshortrunisrelativelyKeynesian（凯恩斯主义者）inthatthepricelevelisnotimmediatelyresponsivetoaggregatedemand（AD）andsupply.Analysisonthebehavioroftheeconomyinthelongerrunismoreclassical（古典学派的）inthatthepriceleveldoesrespondtodemandandsupply.,10,DeterminantsofrealGDP（representingbothdomesticproductandnationalincome）,11,Domesticproductiondependsonaggregatedemand,Amajorperformancegoalofaneconomyistoachieveproductionofgoodsandservicesthatisclosetotheeconomyspotential.ThevalueofproductionofgoodsandservicesistheeconomysrealGDP（Y）;itisnearlythesamethingasrealnationalincome.,12,Intheshortrun（andwithintheeconomyssupplycapabilities）,domesticproductionisdeterminedbyaggregatedemand:

Y=AD=C+Id+G+（X-M）国内产出（国民收入）总需求消费国内投资政府支出净出口（X-M）:

Exportsaretheforeigndemandforourgoods;importsarealreadyincludedintheotherkindsofspending.,13,Y=AD=C+Id+G+（X-M）,E,Nationalspendingongoodsandservices,14,Contd,Nationalspendingongoodsandservices:

E=C+Id+GC=C（Y）（+）Id=Id（i）（-）Gistreatedasapoliticaldecision.,15,Tradedependsonincomep166,M=M（Y）,importsMareapositivefunctionofY.Marginalpropensitytoimport（m）:

theamountbywhichourimportsincreasewhenourincomegoesupbyonedollar.边际进口倾向：

每增加一元的收入所增加的进口量。

Xdependsonincomeofforeigncountries.,16,EquilibriumGDPandspendingmultipliers,EquilibriumGDPTheconditionforequilibrium:

realGDP=AD,AD=E+X-M,holdingtheinterestrateconstant,AD（Y）=E（Y）+X-M（Y）,Therefore,theequilibriumconditionisY=AD（Y）=E（Y）+X-M（Y）,17,Thespendingmultiplierinasmall,openeconomy,ThespendingmultipliershowshowequilibriumGDPrespondstoexogenous（外来的）changesinanycomponentofaggregatedemand.支出乘数体现了均衡GDP是如何随总需求各组成部分的变化而变化的。

乘数是指由总支出变动引起的国民收入增加的倍数。

18,Supposethatthegovernmentraisesitspurchasesofdomesticallyproducedgoodsandservicesby10units,10unitspurchases,10extraincomeforwhoeverproduces,Spendingpartoftheextraincometoconsume,Extrapartincomeforwhoeverproduces,19,Contd,Witheachextradollarofincome,peoplewillSave20centsmarginalpropensitytosave（s）?

Spend30centsonimportsmarginalpropensitytoimport（m）?

Spend50centsdomesticallymarginalpropensitytoconsumedomesticproduct（1-s-m）?

20,Both20%savedand30%importsintheextraincomerepresent“leakages”fromthedomesticexpenditurestream.Inthesecondroundofincomeandexpenditures,only50%（1-20%-30%）willbepassedonanddividedupintofurtherdomesticspending.,21,10unitspurchases,10extraincomeforwhoeverproduces,Spending5unitsoftheextraincometoconsume,5unitsincomeforwhoeverproducesgoodsandservice,2.5unitsspendingondomesticconsumption,22,Contd,ThespendingmultiplierinasmallopeneconomyisY/G=1/（s+m）国民收入的增量/政府支出的增量=1/（边际储蓄倾向+边际进口倾向）Note:

Themultiplierissmallerinasmallopeneconomythanitinacomparableclosedeconomy（inwhichmiszero）Exercise:

Q4p185a,b,23,a.Thespendingmultiplierinthissmallopeneconomyisabout1.82（=1/（0.15+0.4）.Ifrealspendinginitiallydeclinesby$2billion,thendomesticproductandincomewilldeclinebyabout$3.64billion（=1.82$2billion）b.Ifdomesticproductandincomedeclineby$3.64billion,thenthecountrysimportswilldeclinebyabout$1.46billion（=$3.64billion0.4）.,24,ForeignSpillovers（需求溢出）andForeign-IncomeRepercussions国外需求溢出和外国收入的影响,ForeignSpilloversSpillover:

需求溢出-因某种商品不足而引起对其他有关商品的需求Spillovereffect:

溢出效应，是指事物一个方面的发展带动了该事物其它方面的发展。

如，一国总需求与国民收入增加对别国的影响。

25,Ifthecountryisnotsmallthefollow-oneffectsoftheseimportsTheeffectscanbeimportantintwoways:

-changesinproductionandincomeofalargecountryhavespillovereffectsonproductionandincomeinforeigncountries.-thechangeinforeignincomesalterforeignpurchasesofthefirstcountrysexports,26,e.g.theU.S.accountsforabout21percentofworldproduction,anditaccountsfor20percentofworldimports.Theeuroareahas16percentofworldproductionand17percentofworldimports.,Figure8.2,27,Foreign-IncomeRepercussionsp171,Foralargecountrywhosetradenoticeablyaffectsdomesticproductioninothercountries,foreignincomerepercussionsincreasethetruespendingmultiplier.Achangeinthislargecountrysincomechangesitsimports,whichchangesforeignexportsbyenoughtoalterforeignproductionandincome.,28,Figure8.3ForeignTradeandIncomeRepercussions,29,Contd,Thisrepercussionswasevidentinbusinesscycles.e.g.theGreatDepressionofthe1930sThesameinterdependenceofincomespersiststoday.Whenworldeconomyissluggish,increasinggrowthinbigcountriesmaybesufficienttoraiseworldgrowthoverall.,30,Amorecompleteframeworkforanalyzingacountrysmacroeconomyintheshortrunrequiresthatweareabletopicturenotonlydomesticproduct,income,andaggregatedemandbutalsosupplyanddemandofmoneyandcountrysoverallbalanceofpayment.,31,Amorecompleteframework:

Threemarkets,Thedomesticproductmarketsupplyanddemandfordomesticgoodsandservices.Themoneymarketsupplyanddemandformoney.Theforeignexchangemarketsupplyanddemandforforeigncurrency.,32,Figure8.4OverviewofMacromodel（Mundell-FlemingModel）,ThefirsttwomarketsdetermineYandi;Yandiimpactthethirdmarket;exogenousforcesaffectthesethreemarkets.,决定,影响,33,外生变量：

由模型以外的因素决定的已知变量，它是模型据以建立的外部条件。

内生变量：

该模型所要决定的变量。

它可在模型体系内得到说明。

34,Thedomesticproductmarket,Theaggregatedemandforwhatourcountryproducesdependsnotonlyonincome（Y）butalsointerestrate（i）.IScurve.,35,两部门收入模型漏出：

指居民户把一部分收入转化为储蓄。

注入：

企业所得到的额外的投资。

金融机构,储蓄S,投资I,商品或劳务,货币（消费C）,提供生产要素,货币（工资或利息）,居民户,企业,36,两部门经济中国民收入均衡的条件AD=C+I=AS=C+S，即I=S。

37,Contd,IS（investment-saving）curveshowsallcombinationsofdomesticproductlevels（Y）andinterestrates（i）forwhichthedomesticproductmarketisinequilibrium.p173IS曲线表示在产品市场上，投资等于储蓄（I=S）时利率和收入的各种组合的点的轨迹。

DomesticproductmarketisinequilibriumwhenS（Y）=Id（i）+X-M（Y）,+,+,38,Figure8.5,ISCurve,利率=i,国内产出Y（国民收入）,0,0.07,0.05,0.09,C,A,B,80,100,120,IS,WhydoestheIScurveslopedownward?

EquilibriumpointA.Ifi=0.05,loweriinducemoredomesticinvestment,resultinginahigherlevelofdomesticproduct.（Y=120）pointB,39,IS曲线的移动,AchangeinanyinfluenceonaggregatedemandotherthaninterestratesresultsinashiftintheIScurve.i不变，而是总需求的其他因素发生变化时，会导致IS曲线的位移。

e.g.anincreaseingovernmentspending?

foreigndemandforthecountrysexportsincreases?

40,Themoneymarket,Monetarypolicydeterminesmoneysupplyofacountry.Thedemandformoney（L）isrelatedtothe（nominal）GDPandinterestrates.,ValueofGDP=（PY）,Opportunitycosttoholdingmoney（i）,41,L=L（PY,i）EquilibriumofmoneymarketisMS=L（PY,i）,42,Contd,LMcurveshowsallcombinationsofproductionlevelsandinterestratesforwhichthemoneymarketisinequilibrium.LM曲线表示在货币市场中，货币供给等于货币需求时收入与利率的各种组合的点的轨迹。

43,Figure8.6LMCurve,44,WhydoesLMcurveslopeupward?

EquilibriumatpointA.Ifinterestrateishigher,say,at0.09,peoplewouldholdlessmoneybutmorebondsinstead.Tohavethemoneymarketequilibriumatthathigherinterestrate,peoplewouldhavetohavesomeotherreasontoholdthesameamountofmoneysupplyatpointA.sothelevelofdomesticproductandincomeshouldbehigher,raisingtheirtransactionsdemandforholdingmoney.,45,LM曲线的移动,AchangeinthemoneysupplyorachangeinaninfluenceonmoneydemandotherthanYoriresultsinashiftintheLMcurve.Y或者i不变，而是货币供给或影响货币需求的因素发生变化时，会导致LM曲线的位移。

e.g.anincreaseinthenominalmoneysupplybythecentralbank？

46,Contd,IftheIScurveisaddedtoLMcurve.,i,0,Y,LM,IS,0.05,0.07,0.09,100,80,A,F,G,120,47,Theforeignexchangemarket,Balance-of-paymentsapproachforthismarket.B=CA（Y）+KA（i）HowdoYandiaffectthecountriesbalanceofpayments?

Balanceongoodsandservicestradedependsnegativelyonourdomesticproduct,throughthedemandforimports。

Internationalcapitalflowsdependsoninterestrates.,+,（X-M）,48,FEcurve,TheFEcurveshowsallcombinationsofYandithatresultinazeroofficialsettlementsbalance.FE曲线表示总差额为零时收入与利率的各种组合的点的轨迹。

49,Figure8.7,Interestrate=i,Domesticproduct=Y,0.03,0.07,0.11,J,A,H,FE,LM,IS,surplus,deficit,0,当国内产出和收入增加时，进口增加，经常账户差额恶化，但这种情况可随高利率吸引外资流入为来冲销。

因此，FE曲线向上倾斜。

80,100,120,50,FE曲线的移动,AchangeinaninfluenceonthecurrentorcapitalaccountsotherthanYoricausesashiftintheFEcurve.Y或者i不变，而是影响经常账户或资本账户的因素发生变化时，会导致FE曲线的位移。

e.g.anincreaseinforeignincomeincreasesdemandforourexportsFEcurveshiftstoright,51,Threemarketstogether,Theofficialsettlementsbalance（B）isinsur