价格形态百科三重顶底2.docx

价格形态百科三重顶底2.docx

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价格形态百科三重顶底2

42、TripleBottoms

RESULTSSNAPSHOT

Appearance

Threedistinctminorlowsataboutthesamepricelevel

ReversalOrConsolidation

Short-term（upto3months）bullishreversal

FailureRate

4%

AverageRise

38%,withmostlikelyrisebeing20%

VolumeTrend

Downward

Throwbacks

70%

Percentagemeetingpredictedpricetarget

73%

SurprisingFinding

Formationswithathirdbottomabovethesecondoneperformbetterwithanaveragegainof48%versus31%.Formationswithhighervolumeontherightbottom,whencomparedtothecenterone,havegainsaveraging40%versus28%forthereversecombination.

Seealso

BroadeningBottoms;BroadeningFormations,Right-AngledandDescending;BroadeningWedges,Descending;Head-and-ShouldersBottoms;Headand-ShouldersBottoms,Complex;Triangles,Descending

Oneofthesurprisingthingsabouttriplebottomsistheirlowfailurerate:

4%.Forsomereason,Iexpectedittobehigher.Ifoneplaysbytherulesandwaitsforanupsidebreakout,thenfewtriplebottomsfailtocontinuemovingup,manyrimessubstantially.Theaverageriseis38%withalikelygainof20%,aboutwhatyouwouldexpectfrombullishformations.

令人吃惊的低失败率-4%，我本以为失败率会高一些。

如果按照规则突破后买入，几乎没有三重底会失败。

平均涨幅38%，最可能20%，符合牛市形态的一般情况。

Almostthreeoutoffourformations（70%）throwbacktothebreakoutpoint.Thisissomewhatmisleadingbecausethebreakoutpointcanbefarremovedfromthefinaltrough—anaverageofalmost6weeksaway.Butthetimeiswellspentaspricesclimbfromthethirdrecessiontothebreakoutorconfirmationpoint.

70%的三重底突破后会回调。

Justforkicks,Imeasuredtheaveragegainforthoseformationswithathirdbottomabovethelowpostedbythesecondone.Thegainis48%,whereasthosewithathirdbottombelowthesecondonescoregainsaveragingjust31%.Thedifferencesarestatisticallysignificantbutitmaysurpriseyoutolearntheaveragepricedifferencebetweenthetwobottomsisonly35cents.Volumeisimportanttoperformance.Whenthevolumeonthecenterbottomisbelowthatofthelastbottom,theformationshavegainsaveraging40%.Withthereversesituationwherethecenterbottomhasthehighervolumeofthetwo,performancedwindlesto28%.Iexplorestatisticslaterinthischapter.

Tour

Figure42.1showsanexampleofatriplebottom.Pricesdescendtothe37areathreetimesandeachtime,theyturnaway;thelevelmarksazoneofsupportpreventingfuturedeclines.ThesharpV-shapedrecession,especiallyduringthelastvalley,istypicalfortriplebottoms.Therounded-lookingrisefromthefirstvalleytothesecondisalsocharacteristicoftriplebottomsbutnotastrictrequirement.

图42.1是一个典型的三重底。

价格从三次跌至37美元区域，每次都反转。

这个区域标志着强烈的支撑。

第三次的V形反转，第二次的圆形上涨，都是三重底的典型特征，不过不是严格要求。

Thepricelevelofthethreevalleysisnearlythesame,inthiscase,within3/8ofoneanother.ThatisakeyelementoftriplebottomsasweseeintheIdentificationGuidelinessection.

三个价格底部的价格水平是近似的，在本例中，3/8美元以内。

这是三重底的重要规定。

Eachchartformationisuniquewithcharacteristicsthatdistinguishitfromotherpatterns,andtheoneinFigure42.1isnoexception.Thestockreachesalowinmid-October1992,aftertrendingdownfor5months.Thenpricesretracetheirlossesandstrayintonewhighterritorybeforeheadingdowntothefirsttriplebottomlow.SupportreachedduringformationofthefirstlowissetupbythepeakbackinMay1992.Pricesclimbtothe37areaseveraltimesfromJanuarytoMaybutfailtoburstthroughtheresistance.

每种形态都是独一无二的区别于其他形态的，图42.1中也不例外。

股票在下跌5个月后，于1992年十月中旬达到低谷。

然后回调，运动到高价区域，之后跌倒第一个低谷。

之后往复运动，多次触及。

Themultiplehitsontheceilingareinnosmallmeasureresponsibleforthesupportthetriplebottomencounters.Aspricesdescendto37,investorswillingtopartwiththeirsharesatthelowerlevelarescarce.Whensomeonedoesoffertosell,buyerssnatchthestockbelievingtheyaregettingagoodbargain.Andtheyareright.Pricesdonotmeanderatthe37levelforlong.IfyoulookcloselyatFigure42.1,eachvalleyfloorisa1-daydownwardspike,albeitsmallbutvisible.

Thestartoftheformation,fromthefirsttothesecondbottom,lookslikeabroadeningtop,right-angledandascendingwithitshorizontalbottomandup-slopingtoptrendline.However,therearenotenoughpricecrossingstoreallyvalidatetheformation.ItalwaysmakesmenervouswhenIseeplentyofwhitespaceinaformation（suchasthatshownbetweenthefirstandsecondbottoms）.Whentherisebetweenthesecondandthirdtroughsfailstocomeanywhereneartheup-slopingtrendline,thejigisup.

形态开始阶段，看起来像上升三角喇叭形。

然后，价格往复太少，无法确认形态（空白区域太大）。

Pricesstoprisingatthesamepoint,about46,makingthetriplebottomlooklikeadoubletop.This,too,failstocometofruitionwhenpricesreachthe37supportzoneandturnaround.Thedoubletopremainsunconfirmedanditjustbecomesanothertwobumpsonthepricechart.

Theconvolutedcreationofatriplebottomhelpsexplainwhytheformationissoscarce,butIdiscussstatisticslater.First,howdoyouidentifyatriplebottom?

IdentificationGuidelines

Table42.1outlinestheguidelinesforidentifyingtriplebottoms.Ithinkmosttechnicalanalystswilltellyouthatnotanythreebottomswilldoforatriplebottom.Thethreebottomsareusuallylargeandwellseparatedwithgenerallyroundedrisesinbetween.Thelowestpriceineachbottomisataboutthesamelevel.Ifthecenterpriceislowerthantheothertwo,thenyoumightbelookingatahead-and-shouldersbottom.Whenthebottomsaresuccessivelylowerinprice,itmightbeoneofthebroadeningseriesofformations（broadeningbottoms;broadeningformations,right-angledanddescending;broadeningformations,right-angledandascendingifthebottomsareflatbutthetopsformsuccessivelyhigherpeaks;andbroadeningwedges）,soconsulttheappropriatechapteronthoseformations.

Thevolumetrendusuallyrecedesoverthecourseoftheformation.Sincetheformationtendstobelong,thevolumepatternappearsraggedorirregularattimes.Eachofthethreebottomsusuallyshowsvolumethatpeaksabovethedaysleadingtothebottomwiththefirstbottomusuallyhavingthehighestvolumeofthetrio.IntheStatisticssectionofthischapterwedelveintothevolumepatternmorethoroughly.

Nowthatwehavereviewedmostoftheguidelines,whatdoesatriplebottomlooklike?

Figure42.2showsagoodexampleofatriplebottom.Noticethethreedownwardpricerecessions.Theyaredistinctandseparatedwiththerallybetweeneachbottomquitepronounced.Pricesrisefromthelowofabout35totheconfirmationlinejustover40.Theconfirmationlineisthehighesthighreachedduringthechartpattern.Itservesasthebreakoutpoint,thepointtowhichpricesmustrisebeforeanythreeminorlowsbecomeatruetriplebottom.Whenpricesriseabovetheconfirmationline,theformationconfirmsandpricesshouldcontinuerising.

YoucanseeinFigure42.2diatthethreebottomsareatnearlydiesameprice.Onlythelastbottomfallsshortofthegoal.AsweseeintheStatisticssection,diisoftensignalsabetterperformingformation.Thistriplebottomisthebeginningofalarge,extendedmovehattakespricesfromalowof34!

/2toahighof73'/2in16months.

Thevolumetrendindiisformationisdownwardwithdielargestconcentrationofhighvolumeondiefirstbottom.ThecenterbottomhassubduedvolumeandisevenloweronthediirdbottominearlyOctober.Volumespikesupwardaspricesrisetotheconfirmationpointinmid-November.Then,pricesconsolidateforaboutaweekbeforeattemptingtopiercedieoldresistancelineat40'/2.Onaboveaveragevolume,pricespushthroughtheoldbarrierandquicklyjumpthreepoints,buildabroadeningtopformation,diencontinuehigher.

TriplebottomsareusuallylargeenoughtobevisibleonweeklychartssuchasthatshowninFigure42.3.Thethreeminorlowsareevidentindieweeklychart.ThefirstrallypeakinginearlyMaymarksdiehighpointthatlaterbecomestheconfirmationlevel.Theclimbbetweendiesecondandthirdbottomissuspiciouslyflat,butrarelydoesanychartpatternfittheidealshape.Indiisinstance,eachbottomissuccessivelylowerdianthepriorone.Alowerlowpriceondielastbottomisacluetoimpendingunderperformance.Thatisexactlywhathappensaspricesclimbabovedieconfirmationpointof213/storeachahighof26beforeheadingbackdown.Aldioughdie22%gainisbelowaverage,itisstillbetterthantakingaloss.

Investorsnotsellingatthehighseetheirinvestmentdwindleto173/sbylateApril1994.Iftheyholdtheirshares,thestockreboundsanddoesmuchbetter,toppingoutat66l/iinearlyMarch1996.

ThethrowbacktotheconfirmationlinecouldencompassanynumberofweeksbeginninginlateOctober1993.Pricespiercetheconfirmationline,movingup,thenthrowbacktoitwithinamonth.Pricesreturningtotheconfirmationlinebeyondthe30-daytimelimitclassifyasnormalpriceaction,notthrowbacks.

FocusonFailures

Oncepricesreachdieconfirmationline,theyusuallyhavebeenrisingforwelloveramonth,onaverage,sincethethirdbottom.Pricesoftenpiercedieresistancelinebutdoubleback,hesitatingbeforecontinuingup—mostofthetime.Insomecases,pricesriseabovetheconfirmationpointbylessthan5%beforethrowingbackandcontinuingdown.Whenthathappens,itiscalleda5%failure.Inthisstudyoftriplebottoms,allchartpatternsmuststageanupsidebreakout（ariseabovediehighesthighintheformation）beforebeinglabeledatriplebottom.Sinceallformationshaveupsidebreakouts,only5%failuresremaintowipethewarmglowofasuccessfulinvestmentfromanoviceinvestor'sface.Fortunately,5%failuresarerare.Onlyfive（4