咨询公司case分析方法Word格式.docx

咨询公司case分析方法Word格式.docx

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时间序列估计，可比公司估计

市场细分很重要，nichemarket

A. 

地理细分

B. 

人口细分（年龄及生命周期阶段细分，性别细分，收入细分）

C. 

心理细分（社会阶层，生活方式，个性特征）

D. 

行为细分（购买时机-柯达，利益细分-牙膏，用户状况，使用率，忠诚度）

2．行业分析类

市场（市场规模，市场细分，产品需求/趋势分析，客户需求）

竞争（竞争对手的经济情况，产品差异化，市场整合度，产业集中度）

顾客/供应商关系（谈判能力，替代者，评估垂直整合）

进入/离开的障碍（评估公司进入/离开。

对新加入者的反应，经济规模，预测学习曲线，研究政府调控）

资金金融（主要金融资金来源，产业风险因素，可变成本/固定成本）

风险预测与防范

3．新产品引入类

营销调研

产品？

价格？

即4P

4C（Customer,Competition,Cost,Capabilities）

市场促销，分校渠道（渠道选择，库存，运输，仓储）

STP和4P（Product,Price,Place,Promotion）

产品生命周期

二．BusinessOperation

1．市场容量扩张（竞争对手，消费者，自己实力）

2．利润改善型

Revenue,Cost分析，到底是销售额下降造成，还是成本上升造成

如果销售额下降，看4P了（是价格过高？

产品质量问题？

分校渠道问题？

还是promotion的efficacy有问题？

）

如果成本上升，看固定成本or可变成本是否有问题？

（固定成本过高，设备是否老化，需要关闭生产线、厂房，降低管理者工资等，可变成本过高，看原材料价格是否上升，有没有降低的可能，switchsuppliers?

还是人员工资过高，需要裁员等）

成本结构是否合理，产能利用率如何（闲置率）

3. 

推销任何一种产品/服务

4P，3c

4. 

定价

以成本为基础的定价

成本加成定价，以目标利润（盈亏平衡定价）

以价值为基础定价

以竞争为基础定价

三．MarketSizing/Estimation

市场趋势，市场规模，市场份额，市场壁垒等

市场集中度

市场驱动因素（价格，服务，质量，外观）

关键成功要素KSF

四．M&

A类

整合原因（synergy,scale,managementimpulse,Taxconsideration,Diversification,BreakupValue）

5C（Character,Capacity,Capital,Conditions,CompetitiveAdvantage）

类型：

horizontal,vertical,congeneric,conglomerate

估值方法：

DFC，MarketMultiple（EBITDA，P/E，P/B）

DFC：

ProFormaCashFlowStatement，DiscountRate

HostileVSFriendlytakeovers

所有咨询公司面试可能用到的分析结构

Advancedconcepts&

frameworks

MBAsandothercandidateswithbusinessbackground,takenote-interviewerswillexpectyoutohaveamoredetailedtakeonyourcasethananundergraduatewouldhave.Herearesomecommonlyusedcaseconcepts.

Netpresentvalue

Perhapsthemostimportanttypeofdecisioncompanymanagersmustmakeonadailybasisiswhethertoundertakeaproposedinvestment.Forexample,shouldthecompanybuyacertainpieceofequipment?

Buildaparticularfactory?

Investinanewproject?

Thesetypesofdecisionsarecalledcapitalbudgetingdecisions.Theconsultantmakessuchdecisionsbycalculatingthenetpresentvalueofeachproposedinvestmentandmakingonlythoseinvestmentsthathavepositivenetpresentvalues.

Example:

HernandezistheCFOofWesternManufacturingCorp.,anautomobilemanufacturer.ThecompanyisconsideringopeninganewfactoryinOhiothatwillrequireaninitialinvestmentof$1million.Thecompanyforecaststhatthefactorywillgenerateafter-taxcashflowsof$100,000inYear1,$200,000inYear2,$400,000inYear3,and$400,000inYear4.AttheendofYear4,thecompanywouldthensellthefactoryfor$200,000.Thecompanyusesadiscountrateof12percent.Hernandezmustdeterminewhetherthecompanyshouldgoaheadandbuildthefactory.Tomakethisdecision,Hernandezmustcalculatethenetpresentvalueoftheinvestment.Thecashflowsassociatedwiththefactoryareasfollows:

HernandezthencalculatestheNPVofthefactoryasfollows:

Sincethefactoryhasanegativenetpresentvalue,Hernandezcorrectlydecidesthatthefactoryshouldnotbebuilt.

Thenetpresentvaluerule

NotefromtheexampleabovethatoncetheconsultanthasfiguredouttheNPVofaproposedinvestment,shethendecideswhethertoundertaketheinvestmentbyapplyingthenetpresentvaluerule:

Makeonlythoseinvestmentsthathaveapositivenetpresentvalue.

Aslongastheconsultantfollowsthisrule,shecanbeconfidentthateachinvestmentismakingapositivenetcontributiontothecompany.

TheCapitalAssetPricingModel（CAPM）

Intheaboveexample,weassumedagivendiscountrate.However,partofaconsultant'

sjobistodetermineanappropriatediscountrate（r）tousewhencalculatingnetpresentvalues.Thediscountratemayvarydependingontheinvestment.

Beta

Thefirststepinarrivingatanappropriatediscountrateforagiveninvestmentisdeterminingtheinvestmentsriskiness.Themarketriskofaninvestmentismeasuredbyits"

beta"

（?

）,whichmeasuresriskinesswhencomparedtothemarketasawhole.Aninvestmentwithabetaof1hasthesameriskinessasthemarketasawhole（so,forexample,whenthemarketmovesdown10percent,thevalueoftheinvestmentwillonaveragefall10percentaswell）.Aninvestmentwithbetaof2willbetwiceasriskyasthemarket（sowhenthemarketfalls10percent,thevalueoftheinvestmentwillonaveragefall20percent）.

CAPM

Oncetheconsultanthasdeterminedthebetaofaproposedinvestment,hecanusetheCapitalAssetPricingModel（CAPM）tocalculatetheappropriatediscountrate（r）:

Therisk-freerateofreturnisthereturnthecompanycouldreceivebymakingarisk-freeinvestment（forexample,byinvestinginU.S.Treasurybills）.Themarketrateofreturnisthereturnthecompanycouldreceivebyinvestinginawell-diversifiedportfolioofstocks（forexample,S&

P500）.

Shen,Inc.,acoalproducer,isconsideringinvestinginanewventurethatwouldmanufactureandmarketcarbonfilters.Shen'

schieffinancialofficer,Apelbaum,wantstocalculatetheNPVoftheproposedventureinordertodeterminewhetherthecompanyshouldmaketheinvestment.Afterstudyingtheriskinessoftheproposedventure,Apelbaumdeterminesthatthebetaoftheinvestmentis1.5.AU.S.Treasurynoteofcomparablematuritycurrentlyyields7percent,whilethereturnontheS&

P500stockindexis12percent.Therefore,thediscountrateApelbaumwillusewhencalculatingtheNPVoftheinvestmentwillbe:

Althoughthisisanoverlysimplifieddiscussionofhowconsultantscalculatediscountratetouseintheircash-flowanalysis,itdoesgiveyouanoverviewofhowconsultantsincorporatethenotionofaninvestment'

smarkettoselecttheappropriatediscountrate.

Porter'

sFiveForces

DevelopedbyHarvardBusinessSchoolprofessorMichaelPorterinhisbookCompetitiveStrategy,thePorter'

sFiveForcesframeworkhelpsdeterminetheattractivenessofanindustry.Beforeanycompanyexpandsintonewmarkets,divestsproductlines,acquiresnewbusinesses,orsellsdivisions,itshouldaskitself,"

Istheindustrywe'

reenteringorexitingattractive?

"

ByusingPorter'

sFiveForces,acompanycanbegintodevelopathoughtfulanswer.ConsultantsfrequentlyutilizePorter'

sFiveForcesasastartingpointtohelpcompaniesevaluateindustryattractiveness.

Take,forexample,entryintothecopystoremarket（likeKinko'

s）.Howattractiveisthecopystoremarket?

Potentialentrants:

Whatisthethreatofnewentrantsintothemarket?

Copystoresarenotveryexpensivetoopen-youcanconceivablyopenacopystorewithonecopierandoneemployee.Therefore,barrierstoentryarelow,sothere'

sahighriskofpotentialnewentrants.

Buyerpower:

Howmuchbargainingpowerdobuyershave?

Copystorecustomersarerelativelypricesensitive.Betweenthechoiceofacopystorethatcharges5centsacopyandastorethatcharges6centsacopy,buyerswillusuallyheadforthecheaperstore.Becausecopystoresarecommon,buyershavetheleveragetobargainwithcopystoreownersonlargeprintjobs,threateningtotaketheirbusinesselsewhere.Theonlymitigatingfactorsarelocationandhours.Ontheotherhand,priceisnottheonlyfactor.Copystoresthatarewillingtostayopen24hoursmaybeabletochargeapremium,andcustomersmaysimplypatronizethecopystoreclosesttothemifotherlocationsarerelativelyinconvenient.

Supplierpower:

Howmuchbargainingpowerdosuppliershave?

Whilepaperpricesmaybeontherise,copierpricescontinuetofall.Theskilllevelemployeesneedtooperateacopyshop（forbasicservices,likecopying,collating,etc.）arerelativelylowaswell,meaningthatemployeeswillhavelittlebargainingpower.Suppliersinthissituationhavelowbargainingpower.

Threatofsubstitutes:

Whatistheriskofsubstitution?

Forbasiccopyingjobs,morepeoplenowpossesscolorprintersathome.Additionally,faxmachineshavethecapabilitytofulfillcopyfunctionsaswell.Largecompanieswillnormallyhavetheirowncopyingfacilities.However,forlarge-scaleprojects,mostindividualsandemployeesatsmallcompanieswillstillusetheservicesofacopyshop.TheInternetisapotentialthreattocopystoresaswell,becausesomedocumentsthatformerlywouldbedistributedinhardcopywillnowbepostedontheWeborsentthroughe-mail.However,forthetimebeing,thereisstillrelativelystrongdemandforcopystoreservices.

Competition:

Competitionwithintheindustryappearstobeintense.Storesoftencompeteonprice,andarewillingto"

underbid"

oneanothertowinprintingcontracts.Storescontinuetoaddnewfeaturestocompeteaswell,suchasexpandinghoursto24-hourserviceandofferingfreedelivery.

Fromthisanalysis,youcanascertainthatcopystoresaresomethingofacommoditymarket.Consumersareveryprice-sensitive,copystoresareinexpensivetosetup,andthemarketisrelativelyeasilyenteredbycompetitors.Advancesintechnologymayreducethesizeofthecopystoremarket.Value-addedservices,suchaslatehours,convenientlocations,oradditionalservicessuchascreatingcalendarsorstickers,mayhelpcopystoresdifferentiatethemselves.Butoverall,thecopystoreindustrydoesnotappeartobeanattractiveone.

Asdot-comscomeunderfire,onecasequestionwe'

veheardincreasinglyis"

HowwouldyoucreatebarrierstoentryasanInternetStartup?

Productlifecyclecurve

Ifyou'

reconsideringaproductcase,figureouthow"

mature"

yourproductorserviceis

Strategy