美赛一等奖论文资料下载.pdf

美赛一等奖论文资料下载.pdf

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AbAbstractstractThispaperaimstoanalyzetheproblemsofsustainabledevelopmentanddevelopamodalofsustainability.AsforTask1,wefirstlychoose8relevantfactorsconcerningthesustainability.Inordertomakethesefactorsquantified,weselect8representativedatatorepresentthefactors.Then,weworkouttheweightwofthese8factorsbasedonAPHtheory.Afterthat,weapplythemethodofClusteringAnalysistodividethe8statisticsof20countriesintothreeperiods.Meanwhile,wemustsetastandardforsustainablecountry,whichwecallitSustainabilityIndex（SI）.Finally,werandomlychoose10countriesdatatoexamineourmodal.InordertosolveTask2,weselectDemocraticRepublicoftheCongoastheresearchobject.BasingontheModalofSI,thepresentSIofCongois0.84,whichmeansitsintheunsustainableperiod.Then,wedoathoroughresearchonCongoandfindoutthattheproblemsTherefore,wemakeupa20-year-planforCongobasedonourresearchandmodalinTask1tohelpitimproveitsustainability.AimingattheTask3,wefindoutthe8relevantstatisticsofCongossustainabledevelopment（2003-2012）.Then,basedonthemethodofReducingDimensionsandFactorAnalysis,weuseSPSStodotheanalysisoflinearregressionontheconnectionsbetweentheeightrelevantstatisticsandthesustainability.Afterthat,wepredictthattheSIofCongoin2035shouldbe1.1,whichmeansitbasicallymovestowardsustainableperiod.Butittakesmuchlongerwithouttheplanwemake.Thesustainableplanscanimprovetheirsustainabilityinahigherspeed.Finally,wedeveloptheModelofGreyRelationtohelpICMfindtheoptimalpolicies.TheGreyRelationIndexesof8factorsare:

（0.7776,0.7876,0.8681,0.8381,0.8631,0.7512,0.9604,0.9348）TR，Therefore,thepoliciesconcerningsocietystabilityandeconomymakethemaximumbenefits.Finally,weevaluatethemodelsinourpaper,anddiscussitstrengthsandweaknesses.KeyKeywordwordss:

SustainabilityAHPClusteringAnalysisSustainabilityIndexGreyPredictionTeam#40476Page2of19IntroductionNowadays,everycountriestriesallmeanstoincreasetheirGDPwhileabusingnaturalresourcesandpayingnoattentiontoenvironmentprotecting,whichhaveacontinuouslybadinfluenceonnextgenerationsandfurtherdevelopment.Inordertochangetheseirrationaldevelopingpatternsandbenefitsournextgenerations.TheUNputforwardtheconceptionofSustainableDevelopmentin1987.Butherecomesaquestionthathowcanwemeasurewhetheracountrysdevelopmentpatternissustainableornot?

Howcanthisdevelopmentpatternhelpthegovernmenttomakerationalpolicies?

Meanwhile,weneedtopredicateeveryconsequenceafterputtingapolicyintopracticeandevaluatewhetherithelpsthiscountrymovetowardsamoresustainablefuture.Therefore,theproblemsneededtobesolvedinourmodelareclearthat:

Developamodelforthesustainabilityofacountry.Thismodeloffersanassessmentmeasuretoevaluateeverycountryssustainability.AnditcanalsogivetheInternationalConglomerateofMoney（ICM）usefulinformationandsuggestionsfortheirinvestments.Makea20-yearplanofsustainabledevelopmentforaleastdevelopedcountry（LDC）basedonourmodalsandresearch.Useourmodalstoevaluatetheeffectsthe20-yearsustainabilityplanhasonacountryssustainabilityandchoosethemostbeneficialpoliciesorplans.Explainourmodalsandplansandanalyzeitsstrengthsandweaknesses.AssumptionsThedatawechooseinTask1canrepresentacountryssustainabilityandotherfactorsareneglected.Wars,governmentchanginganddevastatingnaturaldisasterswillnotoccurduringthe20years.The20countriesthatwechooseinTask1arerepresentativeenoughtoreflectthedevelopinglevelallovertheworld.Allthedatawefindarereliableandauthentic.SolutionTeam#40476Page3of1911.TheModalofSustainabilityIndexTheModalofSustainabilityIndex（SI）（SI）Wehave5stepstodevelopthismodel:

StepStep11Choose4keyfactorswhicharemostrelatedtoacountryssustainability-Environment,Economy,PersonalHealthandSocietystability.StepStep22Dividethemintoeightrepresentativeaspects-life,foodsecurity,accesstocleanwater,localenvironmentalquality,energyefficiency,education,economy,societystability.Consideringthattheseeightaspectsareabstractandunclear,weintroduceeightmeasurablenationalstatisticstorepresentthemandquantifyeverycountryssustainability.Ithelpsusdevelopthemodelandmakethisproblemmeasurable.Step3Step3Whendefiningacountryssustainabledevelopmentlevel,weapplyAnalyticHierarchyProcess（AHP）andgiveeveryinfluentialfactoracertainweightbasedontheUNscalestandards.SSteptep44Select20representativecountries8nationalstatisticsassample.ThenweapplyClusterAnalysisbasedonSPSStofindareliablefigureanddefineitasthesustainabledevelopmentstandard.Step5Step5FindanequationtocalculateitsSustainabilityIndex（SI）basedonMATLAB.Figure1InfluentialRelationshipTherefore,everypolicyorcountrysSIcanbecalculatedsothatwecanevaluatewhetheritssustainableornotbyinputtingtheseeightstatistics.Meanwhile,theproblemthatwhichpolicyorcountryismorebeneficialtoinvestcanalsobesolved.Team#40476Page4of191.11.1DecidingWeightsBasedonAHPDecidingWeightsBasedonAHPThroughAHP,wecandefineeveryfactorsweightonsustainabilitybasedontheirinfluence.AHPdividesdecisionproblemsintogeneralgoals,sub-goalsandevaluationstandards.ThenAHPestablishesprioritiesamongtheelementsofthehierarchybymakingaseriesofjudgmentsbasedonpairwisecomparisonsoftheelements.Thelargestweightmeanthefirstpriorityelements.Andfinallybasingontheweightwecalculatedtomakethebestchoicesandplans.Stepsofpractice:

Stepsofpractice:

1.ModeltheproblemasahierarchyThefirststepintheanalytichierarchyprocessistomodeltheproblemasahierarchy.Indoingthis,participantsexploretheaspectsoftheproblematlevelsfromgeneraltodetailed,thenexpressitinthemultileveledwaythattheAHPrequires.2.EstablishpriorityThissectionexplainspriorities,showinghowtheyareestablishedbyusingprioritycomparisonmatrix.Chart1TheStandardsofImportanceComparisonAsimportanceRelativetoBEssentialHighlyimportantMoreImportantSlightlyimportantSame97531AsimportanceRelativetoBSlightlylessimportantLessimportantMuchlessimportantLeastimportant1/31/51/71/98,6,4,2,1/2,1/4,1/6,1/8asthemediumnumberbetweeneachevaluatingstandard.3.developthemodelGGoallevel:

oallevel:

sustainabilityTeam#40476Page5of19CCriterialevel:

riterialevel:

humanhealth,foodsecurity,accesstocleanwater,localenvironmentalquality,energyefficiency,education,economy,AAlternativeslevel:

lternativeslevel:

countriesandpoliciesReferringtothedatawefind,wechoose20countriesrelevantnationaldata,whichinclude10developedcountriesand10developingcountries.Theyliein5differentcontinentsrandomlyandbasicallycanrepresentthesustainabledevelopmentlevelallovertheworld.TheseeightdiversefactorshavedifferentimpactsontheSustainabilityIndexInordertofindouttheirconnectionsandhelpussetpriority,weanalyzethesedatawiththehelpofEXCEL.Andwegetthecurveofdifferentfactorsfortheirinfluentiallevel.Figure2CurveofDifferentFactorsforInfluenceLevel4.EstablishpriorityTeam#40476Page6of19Afterreferringtotheconnectionofdifferentfactors,wegivethepriorityasfollows:

AB1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B111/71/21/21/21/41/51/7B271555231B321/51111/21/31/5B421/51111/21/31/5B521/51111/21/31/5B641/222211/21/4B751/3333211/3B871555431B1humanhealthB2environmentB3foodsecurityB4accesstocleanwaterB5energyefficiencyB6educationB7economyB8societystabilityThengetthereciprocalmatrixas:

1171212121415177155523121511112131521511112131521511112131541222211214513333211371555431A5.CalculationofMatrixAsWeightVectors&

ConsistencyCheck5.15.1CCalculationofWeightalculationofWeightiwandtheLargestEandtheLargestEigenvalueigenvaluemaxInordertogettheresult,weuseEXCELandMATLABtocalculatebasedontheAHPssummeasure.Thenwegettheeigenvector:

（0.0302,0.2703,0.0540,0.0540,0.0540,0.1010,0.1417,0.2948）Tw,Thelargesteigenvaluemax8.12605.2ConsistencyCheckofMatrixATeam#40476Page7of19max（n）0.018（n1）CI，max8.1260，AsmatrixA:

8n，then,0.0180.01280.11.41CICRRITherefore,matrixApassestheconsistencycheckandwegettheeigenvalueofmatrixAas（0.0302,0.2703,0.0540,0.0540,0.0540,0.1010,0.1417,0.2948）TwTherefore,theweightsofeightrelevantfactorsareasfollow:

FactorsFactorsB1B2B3B4weightweight0.03020.27030.05400.0540FactorsFactorsB5B6B7B8weightweight0.05400.10100.14170.2948Tomakeitclear,wemakeasectordiagram:

Figure3SectorDiagramofRelevantElementsFromtheFigure3,wecanconcludethatthe3mostinfluentialfactorsonanationsSustainabilityIndexareenvironment,economy,societystability.Ittellsusthatwhenmakingnewpoliciesorplans,wemusttakethesefactorsasthefirstpriority.Team#40476Page8of191.2DefineStandardizedSIbasedonClusterAnalysisUNputforwardtheconceptionofsustainabledevelopment,buttherearenostandardsorcriteriaforustojudgewhetheracountryissustainableornot.Toquantifyacountryssustainability,itrequiresustoestablishcriteriaofeightfactors.Thereforewecancalculatethesustainabilityofacountry,whichwecall“SustainabilityIndex”.Referringtothedatawefind