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NewsAnalysis
1.SuccessesOverseasAreUnlikelytoHelpObamaatHome
WASHINGTON—PresidentObama’sannouncementthatthelastAmericansoldierswillleaveIraqbytheendofthisyearcappedamomentousweekinwhichhecouldalsotakecreditforhelpingdispatchoneoftheworld’sgreatvillains,Col.Muammarel-Qaddafi.
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DougMills/TheNewYorkTimes
"Afteradecadeofwar,we'returningthepageandmovingforward,"thepresidenttoldsupportersinane-mailonSaturday.
ConventionalwisdomholdsthatnoneofthiswillmattertoMr.Obama’sfrayedpoliticalfortunes,whichwillbedeterminedbytheeconomyratherthanthenotchesheispilinguponhisstatesman’sbelt.
YetMr.Obama’swithdrawalfromIraq—acampaignpledgekept—andthesuccessfulNATOaircampaigninLibya—withnoAmericancasualties,andatatinyfractionofthecostofIraq—allowedhimtothreadapoliticalneedle:
reaffirminghiscredentialsasawartimeleaderwhilereassuringhisDemocraticbasethatheismakinggoodonthepromisesthatgothimelected.
Thisone-twopunchmayalsostrengthenthepresident’shandagainsthiseventualRepublicanopponent,accordingtoMr.Obama’ssupporters,bydeprivingRepublicansofacudgeltypicallyusedonDemocraticpresidents,thattheyareweakonnationalsecurity.TheswiftandfiercecriticismofhisIraqdecisionbytheRepublicancandidatesshowshowreluctanttheyaretocedethisadvantagetohim.
“Thereisanaggregateeffecttoallthepresident’sforeignpolicysuccesses,”saidBillBurton,aformerWhiteHouseaidewhoisaseniorstrategistatPrioritiesUSAAction,apoliticalactioncommitteebackingtheObamacampaign.“Thenotionofwhoisastrongerleaderwillbedeeplyinfluencedbythepromisesthepresidentkept.”
Mr.BurtonsaidhecouldforeseetelevisionadvertisementsplayingupMr.Obama’sforeignsuccesses,includingthedeathsofbothOsamabinLadenandColonelQaddafi,thoughhedidnotsaywhetherhisgrouphadmadesuchplans.OnSaturday,Mr.BurtoncirculatedamemotoproducersoftheSundaytalkshowsdrawingacontrastbetweenthecostoftheIraqwarandthelower-costLibyaoperation.
Still,thereislittledoubttheelectionwillbedominatedbytheeconomyandtheweakjobmarket,wherethepresidentisdealingwithasteadydripofbadnewsandscanthopeofimprovementbeforeElectionDay.
AdiscussionofforeignpolicyhasbeenlargelyabsentfromthedebatesamongtheRepublicanpresidentialcontenders,astrikingfactgiventhatthenationisenmeshedinthreemajormilitaryconflictsandthatRepublicanshavehistoricallyclaimedanedgeinnationalsecurity.
“Foreignaffairsisimportant,butwhenplacedagainstthescaleoftheproblemwithjobsandtheeconomy,it’sdwarfed,”saidDavidWinston,aRepublicanstrategist.“It’stheequivalentofahouseonfire:
he’sfixingthewindowwhiletherestofthehouseisburningdown.”
KarlRove,aformerstrategisttoPresidentBush,said,“TothedegreeObamatriestosuggestheshouldbere-electedbecauseofforeignpolicystrength,helookslikehe’sdodgingthemainissue.”
Mr.Obama’spollnumbersalsoshowheisgettinglittlecreditforhissuccesses.Hisapprovalratingshotup11points,to57percent,inaNewYorkTimes/CBSNewssurveyafterheorderedthecommandoraidinPakistanthatkilledBinLadeninMay,butfellbackbelow50percentamonthlaterasfearsabouttheeconomypuncturedtheeuphoria.
Lastweek’ssuccessescouldfadetoo—ifsectarianviolenceinIraqflaresupaftertheAmericantroopsleave,ifLibyabecomesanotherSomaliaorifaterroristgroupmanagestostageanattackonAmericansoil.
“Ifthingsgoofftrackinthenextyearortwo,it’snotgoingtomatterwhatthemilitarysuccesseswere,”saidDavidRothkopf,aforeignpolicyexpertwhohaswrittenahistoryoftheNationalSecurityCouncil.
EvenasformerBushadministrationofficialspraisedMr.ObamaforthevictoryinLibya,theRepublicanpresidentialcandidatesweretryingtodrawattentiontothefailedtalksbetweentheUnitedStatesandIraqoverlegalimmunityforasmallforceoftrainersthatthePentagonhadwantedtoremain.
MittRomney,MicheleBachmann,JonM.HuntsmanJr.andHermanCainallcriticizedthepresident’sdecision,withMr.Romneyissuingthemoststridentcondemnation
TheNextWar
2.Panetta’sPentagon,WithouttheBlankCheck
WASHINGTON—Tanandruddy-faced,DefenseSecretaryLeonE.Panettatookhisseatinahearingroomonemorningthismonthreadyforbattle.Theenemy,hewarnedlawmakersominously,was“ablind,mindless”onethatcould“badlydamageourcapabilities”and“trulydevastateournationaldefense.”
JonathanErnst/Reuters
DefenseSecretaryLeonE.Panettawarnsagainstahollowingoutofthemilitary.
PeteSouza/TheWhiteHouse,viaAssociatedPress
PresidentObamaspeakingtoMr.Panetta,leftofcenter,andmembersofthenationalsecurityteamatameetingaboutthemissionagainstOsamabinLaden,intheSituationRoominMay.
Mr.PanettameantnotAlQaeda,theTalibanorIraqiinsurgents,butacreationofCongresspoisedtoinflictwhathedeemedunacceptablebudgetcutsonaPentagonthat,headmitted,had“ablankcheck”inthedecadeaftertheattacksofSept.11,2001.
“Aftereverymajorconflict—WorldWarI,WorldWarII,Korea,Vietnam,thefalloftheSovietUnion—whathappenedwasthatweultimatelyhollowedouttheforce,largelybydoingdeep,across-the-boardcutsthatimpactedonequipment,impactedontraining,impactedoncapability,”hesaid.“Whateverwedoinconfrontingthechallengeswefacenowonthefiscalside,wemustnotmakethatmistake.”
AsPresidentObama’sC.I.A.director,Mr.PanettaoversawtheraidthatkilledOsamabinLadenlastspring.Nowasthepresident’snewdefensesecretary,heischargedwithclosingthebooksonmultiplefronts—justlastweek,Col.Muammarel-QaddafiwaskilledinLibyaandthelastAmericantroopswereorderedhomefromIraqbytheendoftheyear.ButthebiggestchallengesaheadmayberetrofittingthemilitaryforaneweraofausterityandguardingMr.Obama’snationalsecurityflankheadingintoaturbulentelectionyear.
“Itisoneofthesewatershedpoints,”saidformerSenatorDavidBoren,co-chairmanofthePresident’sIntelligenceAdvisoryBoard.“It’sjustliketheendofthecoldwarwhenyou’reabouttoshiftgearsandwe’regoingtohavetoreprioritizewhatwehavetodo.”
ThedauntingtaskhasfallenonMr.Panetta,a73-year-oldformercivilrightschief,congressman,budgetdirectorandWhiteHousechiefofstaffwhosecareerdatestothedaysofPresidentLyndonB.Johnson.ReturningtoWashingtonfromhisCaliforniawalnutfarmin2009,Mr.Panettaknewlittleoffightingwars.WhathedidknowwasWashingtoninstitutions,atraitthatmadehimathrowbacktotheso-calledwisemencommandingrespectacrosspartylines.Whoelsethesedaysisconfirmed100to0bytheSenate?
Butyoudon’tgetto100to0withoutcompromiseorevolution.ThecoldwardovewhoopposedRonaldReagan’scontrawarinNicaraguainthe1980sandGeorgeBush’sPersianGulfwarof1991hasbecomeawaronterrorhawk,authorizingmoredronestrikesinPakistanthanGeorgeW.Bush.
ThecriticwhodenouncedtortureduringMr.Bush’stenuretookofficeandarguedagainstinvestigatingwhetherithappened.Theco-authoroftheIraqStudyGroupreportcallingforwithdrawingtroopsrecentlypressedtokeepmoretroopsthere.
ThecarefulpositioninghasmadeMr.PanettaonesubjectonwhichMr.ObamaandmanyRepublicansagree.“I’maLeonPanettafan,”saidformerRepresentativePeteHoekstra,whoisnoObamafan.“He’sfairlyhawkishandaggressiveonnationalsecurityissues,”agreedRepresentativeMikeRogers,theHouseintelligencechairman.
RepresentativePeterKing,thehomelandsecuritychairman,saidMr.Panettacouldhaveserved“thetoughestRepublicanpresident,notjustaDemocraticpresident.”
Howlongthatlasts,ofcourse,remainsuncertain.Heistreadingintodangerousterritoryashesearchesfor$450billionindefensecutsover10years.IfanewCongressionaldebtcommitteecannotforgeadeficit-reductionagreementbyThanksgiving,Mr.Panettafaceswhathecallsa“doomsdaymechanism”mandatinganadditional$500billionincuts.
Theissuesonthetableareenormous—thefinancialhealthofadebt-riddencountry,militaryreadinesstoconfrontastill-dangerousworldandmanythousandsofjobsandcontractorbusinessesinCongressionaldistrictsaroundthecountry.ThepoliticalcrosscurrentsaretreacherousforapartysosensitivetoitspublicstandingonsecuritythatMr.PanettaisthefirstDemocrattoserveasdefensesecretarysince1997.
3.JobsPlanStalled,ObamatoTryNewEconomicDrive
WASHINGTON—WithhisjobsplanstymiedinCongressbyRepublicanopposition,PresidentObamaonMondaywillbeginaseriesofexecutive-branchactionstoconfronthousing,educationandothereconomicproblemsoverthecomingmonths,heraldedbyanewmantra:
“Wecan’twait”forlawmakerstoact.
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Accordingtoanadministrationofficial,Mr.ObamawillkickoffhisnewoffensiveinLasVegas,groundzeroofthehousingbust,bypromotingnewrulesforfederallyguaranteedmortgagessothatmorehomeowners,thosewithlittleornoequityintheirhomes,canrefinanceandavertforeclosure.
AndWednesdayinDenver,theofficialsaid,Mr.Obamawillannouncepolicychangestoeasecollegegraduates’repaymentoffederalloans,seekingtoalleviatethefinancialconcernsofstudentsconsideringcollegeatatimewhenstatesareraisingtuition.
Thepresident’sannouncementswillbookendathree-dayWesterntripduringwhichhealsowillh