绿色新能源汽车发展外文文献翻译Word文档下载推荐.docx

绿色新能源汽车发展外文文献翻译Word文档下载推荐.docx

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PackDamon.TheresearchofgreennewenergyveluclesfJ].JournalofCleanerProduction，2017,1（6）:

17-26.

原文

Theresearchofsreennewenergyvehicles

PackDamon

1.Introduction

Provisionofenvironmentallysustainable（orgreen）privatetransportthroughouttheworldfacestwomainchallenges.Thefirstisurbanandevenregionalairpollution,particularlyintherapidlygrowingcitiesoftheindustrializingworld.Thesecondisglobalclimatechange,causedmainlybyrisingconcentrationsofgreenhousegases（GHGs）intheatmosphere.Thesetwobarrierstogreencarmobilitydifferinseveralimportantways.First,roadtrafficairpollutionproblemsaremorelocalized,becauseoftheshortatmosphericlifetimesofmostvehiclepollutantsand•Thusregionalsolutionsareoftennotonlypossible,butalsoessential-Australiancities,forexample,can（andmust）solvetheirairpollutionproblemsthemselves-Mattersareverydifferentforglobalclimatechange.Exceptpossiblyforgeo-engineeringmeasuressuchasplacinglargequantitiesofsulphateaerosolsinthelowerstratosphereorerectinghugereflectingmirrorsinspace，onecountrycannotsolvethisproblemalone.Climatechangeisaglobalproblem.Nevertheless,itispossibleforsomecountriesto‘freeload’ifthemajorityofnationsthatareimportantGHGemitter.

Second，thereisagreementthatairpollution,especiallyinurbanareas，ispotentiallyaserioushealthhazard，andthatroadtransportcancontributegreatlytourbanpollutantlevel•Forthesereasons,governmentsinmanycountriesarealreadytakingeffectiveactiononairpollution.Butuntilrecently,climatechangewasnotrecognizedasamajorproblembysomekeypolicymakers,andallcountrieshaveyettotakeeffectiveactiononreducingemissions.

Third,vehicularairpollutantproblems，atleastintheOrganisationforEconomicCooperationandDevelopment（OECD）countries,arealreadyshowingthemselvesamenabletovarioustechnicalsolutions,suchaslow-sulphurfuels,unleadedpetrol,andthree-waycatalyticconverters.Someresearchershavearguedexplicitlythatglobaltransportemissionscanbereducedtoverylowlevelswithacombinationoftwokeytechnicalsolutions-largeimprovementsinvehiclefuelefficiencyandaswitchtoalternativetransportfuels,suchasliquiabiofuelsandhydrogenderivedfromrenewableenergy.Amuchlargergroupimplicitlysupportthispositionbyprojectinglargefutureincreasesincarnumbersandtravelandevenagloballyinterconnectedhighwaysystem.

Further，governmentsthroughouttheworldhaveendorsedthe

UnitedNationsFrameworkConventiononClimateChange（whichcameintoeffectin1994）,butatthesametimeareexpandingtheirroadnetworks，encouragingtheircarindustry，andplanningforfuturecartrafficexpansion.Overall,themajorityofbothresearchersandpolicymakersappeartoconsiderthatclimatechangeposesnothreattoglobalcarmobility.Nevertheless,otherresearchersargueingeneralthattechnologycannotsolvetheseriousenvironment/resourceproblemstheworldfacesglobalwarminginparticular.Also，theauthorsthemselveshaveearlierquestionedwhetherthecurrentglobaltransportsystemcancontinueonitspresentcourse.Thispaperattemptstoresolvethesecompetingclaims.

Transport,ofcourse,isnottheonlysourceofeitherairpollutionorglobalclimatechange.Allenergy-usingsectors,andevenland-usechanges，cancontributetothesetwoproblems.Itisthusimportantthatanyattemptstoreducetransport^emissionsdonotcompromisesimilareffortsinothersectorsoftheeconomy.Itisalsopossiblethatemissionreductionpoliciesinonecountrycouldadverselyaffectreductioneffortselsewhere.

Theaimofthispaperistoshowthatprivatecartravelcannotformthebasisforasustainableglobalsystemofsurfacepassengertravel.Tosimplifytheanalysis,onlyGHGemissionswillbeanalysed.Wearguethattheriskofglobalclimatechangerequireseffectivereductionsinthenexttwodecadesorso,whereastechnicalsolutionstodrasticallycutcartraveFsgreenhousegasemissionsareonlypossibleinamuchlongertimeframe,and,insomecases，possiblynoteventhen.Overall,theworldwillhavetorelyonalternativemodes（variousformsofpublictransport，walkingandcycling）,and，formuchoftheindustrialisedworld，much-reducedlevelsofpersonaltravelaswell.Ofcourse,itisquitepossiblethatthelimitedtimeframeavailableisalsomuchtooshortfortravelreductionsandmodalshiftsofthemagnitudeproposedhere.Theconclusionsofthispaperhaverelevanceforfreightandairtransport,andalsoforothersectorsoftheeconomyfacedwiththeneedfordeepcutsinGHGemissions.

2.Globalclimatechangeandglobalcartravel

Thevastmajorityofclimatescientistssupporttheviewthatemissionsofheat-trappinggasesintotheatmosphere,particularlyC02,fromfossilfuelcombustionandland-usechanges,causeglobalwarmingbyalteringtheearth'

sradiationbalance.The2007reportfromtheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange（IPCC）statesthatsealevelsarerising，glaciersandseaicecoverarediminishing，and11ofthe12warmestyearssince1850haveoccurredinthe1995-2006period.Theirlatestestimate（withaprobabilityof66%orgreater）forclimatesensitivity-theequilibriumincreaseinglobaltemperatureresultingfromadoublingofC02intheatmosphere-isfrom2.0°

Cto4.5°

C,withabestestimateof3-0°

C.AtmosphericC02concentrationsarecurrentlyrisingbysometwopartspermillion（ppm）annually.

Moreover,largepositivefeedbackeffectscouldresultinemissions,andthustemperatures，risingmuchmorerapidlythanexpectedonthebasisofpresentfuelandland-useemissionreleases.Onesuchfeedbackislarge-scalemethanereleasefromnortherntundraaspermafrostmelts.Thereissomepreliminaryevidencethatthisprocessisalreadyunderwayand.Further，studiesofpastclimatehaveshownthatabruptclimaticchangecanoccuroverthecourseofadecadeorevenafewyearsand•JamesHansen，aprominentUSclimatescientist，hasarguedonthebasisofpaleoclimaticdatathatiffurtherglobalwarmingisnotlimitedto1°

Cbeyondtheyear2000value，feedbackscouldaddtobusiness-as-usualemissions，makingtheworlda‘differentplanet’.His1°

Criseabovetheyear2000figureisonlyslightlybelowtheEUvalueof2°

Cabovethepre-industrialvalue,giventheestimated0.74°

Cwarmingthathasoccurredsince1880.HeconcludesthatwecanonlycontinuepresenttrendsforGHGemissionsforanotherdecadeorsobeforecommittingtheclimatetoirreversiblechange.Here,wetakeapositionintermediatebetweendenElzenandMeinshausenandHansen,andassumethatby2030globalemissionsofbothC02andotherGHGsmustbereducedto25%theircurrentvalue-afour-foldreductionincurrentglobalemissions.

Thus,tolimitdangerousclimaticchange,annualemissionstotheatmosphereofC02andothergreenhousegaseswillneedtobegreatlycurtailed,unlessgeo-engineeringorcarbonsequestrationtechniquescanbesuccessfullydeployedintime.Equalemissionspercapitaforallcountries，asadvocatedby‘contractionandconvergence’proponents，arelikelytobetheonlyacceptableproposal,sinceitisimprobablethatindustrialisingcountriessuchasChinaorIndiawillpermanentlyacceptlowerpercapitaemissionsthanthealreadyindustrialisedcountries.Theycouldgofurther，anddemandparityincumulativepercapitaemissionsoverthepastcenturyforC02,along-livedgas.Suchanapproachwouldrequirethealreadyindustrialisedcountriestoreduceemissionstonearzero.In2003，globalC02emissionsfromfossilfuelsaveraged4.2t/capita,butvariedwidelyfromcountrytocountry.TheUS,AustralianandJapaneseemissionswere,respectively,4.8,43and2.2timeslargerthantheworldaverage,implyingreductionfactorsofroughly19,17and9.（TheUSreductionvalueof19by2030canbecomparedwithHussmann’scalculatedvalueof66，althoughhisreductionisfor2050.）AlthoughmanytropicalAfricancountriesemittedlessthan5%oftheaverageglobalvalue，mostoftheindustrializingworldwouldalsoneedtoreduceemissions.Intheabsenceofreliablenationaldata,weassumeherethatotherGHGemissionsforeachcountryfollowthesamepatternasfossilfuelC02emissions.

Whataretheimplicationsfortransport,andprivatecartravelinparticular,oftheseproposedreductionsinGHGemissions?

iransportcontributedanestimated19%ofglobalGHGemissionsin1971,but25%in2006•In2003，therewereroughly715millioncarsintheworld（includinglightcommercialvehiclesintheUS），and6270millionpeople,foranaveragecarownershipof114/1000personsand.Butwhenconsideredatthenationallevel，ownershipisfarfromnormallydistributedAlthoughtheglobalaverageis114/1000persons，onlyabout18-5%oftheworldpopulationlivedincountrieswithbetween20and200cars/1000persons.Afurther65%livedincountrieswithlessthan20cars/1000（includingChinaandIndia）,andtheremaining16.5%incountrieswithgreater-usuallyfargreater-than200cars/1000.

Clearly,carownershipispresentlyheavilypolarised;

peopleeitherliveinhighlymotorisedcountries-usuallyintheOECD-orincountrieswithverylowlevelsofcarownership.Butthepictureischanging.Peopleinallcountries，butparticularlythoseinAsia，wanttoownacar;

indeed,Asiareportedlyleadstheworldinaspirationsforcarownership.Whereincomesarerisingrapidly,asinpopulousChinaandIndia,sotooarecarsalesandownership.In2006,China，withsalesof4.1million，becametheworld’sthirdlargestmarketforcars,overtakingGermany（3.4millio