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中英文双语土木工程管理专业有关工程造价建设项目成本评估估算核算影响因素的毕业设计外文文献翻译成品

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外文标题：

FactorsinfluencingaccuracyofconstructionprojectcostestimatesinPakistan:

Perceptionandreality

外文作者：

FarrukhArifa,SaroshH.LodibandNidaAzharc

文献出处:

FarrukhArifa,SaroshH.LodibandNidaAzharc.FactorsinfluencingaccuracyofconstructionprojectcostestimatesinPakistan:

Perceptionandreality[J].InternationalJournalofConstructionManagement,2018，15

（1）:

59-70（如觉得年份太老，可改为近2年，毕竟很多毕业生都这样做）

英文3658单词，中文5801汉字。

FactorsinfluencingaccuracyofconstructionprojectcostestimatesinPakistan:

Perceptionandreality

FarrukhArifa,SaroshH.LodibandNidaAzharc

Abstract：

Constructionprojectsareuniqueastheyarepricedbeforebeingconstructed.Therefore,accuracyofconstructionprojectcostestimatesispivotalinprojectsuccess.Severalstudieshavedeterminedfactorsinfluencingtheaccuracyofcostestimates.Comparativelylessinformationisavailableforconstructionindustriesindevelopingcountries.ThisstudyidentifiedfactorsinfluencingtheaccuracyofcostestimatesforconstructionprojectsinPakistan.Costdatawascollectedfor46completedconstructionprojects.Fourdimensions60factorswereconsidered.Dimensionsincluded:

projectcharacteristics,projectteam,estimatingprocedures,and（costingrelated）informationitems.Arigorousanalysisframeworkbasedonprincipalcomponentanalysisandregressionanalysiswasused.Involvementofthecontractorintheestimationprocedureandlabourrateswerefoundtobethemostsignificantfactors.Earlyinvolvementofthecontractorcanresultinrealisticestimatesthroughtimelyinputfromsubcontractors,materialssuppliersandmanufacturersamongothers.ThisalsohelpsincontrollinglabourcostsasmostoftheconstructionprojectsinPakistanemploylabourthroughsubcontractors.

Keywords:

costestimates;Pakistan;factorsinfluencingaccuracy;estimatebias;estimateconsistency;principalcomponentanalysis;regressionanalysis

Introduction

Theconstructionindustryisuniqueinitsworkingascomparedtoothermanufacturingandproductdevelopmentindustries.Sinceitisaproject-basedactivity,everyconstructionprojecthasitsownnature,requirements,andcharacteristics.Theuniquenessofconstructionprojectsisthattheyarepricedbeforebeingconstructed.Therefore,accuracyofprojectestimateshaveapivotalrole.Thisisthereasonthatmoreoftenthannot,comparisonofactualcosttoearlycostestimatesbecomesthemeasureoftheprojectteam,performanceandoverallsuccessoftheproject（Oberlender&Trost2001）.Pricingandtheprofitrequiredfromtheconstructionprojectaredecidedatthetimeofbiddingandthebid’sacceptance（Halpin&Senior2009）.Therefore,constructionprojectmanagersareprimarilyinvolvedincostcontrol.Thismakesitnecessaryforconstructionmanagerstounderstanddifferentfactorsthatinfluencetheaccuracyofprojectcostestimates.Severalresearchershaveconducteddetailedstudiesinordertodeterminefactorsinfluencingtheaccuracyofcostestimates.However,comparativelylessinformationonthisisavailablefortheconstructionindustriesindevelopingcountries.Realizingthisneed,thepaperpresentsarigorousanalysistodeterminefactorsinfluencingtheaccuracyofconstructioncostestimates.Thedatawascollectedfrom46constructionprojectsinPakistan.Theauthorsadoptedatwo-stagestatisticalanalysisframeworktodeterminetheperceivedandrealfactorsinfluencingtheaccuracyofestimatesofconstructionprojectcosts.Certainconclusionshavebeendrawnandstrategic-levelrecommendationsareprovided,basedonresultsoftheanalysis,toimprovethecostestimationprocessandtoreduceinaccuracyintheconstructionindustryofPakistan.

Thestudypresentedinthispaperfirstprovidesabriefsynopsisofsimilarpriorstudiesconductedfromdifferentperspectives.Thenitprovidesanaccountoftheresearchobjectivesandscope,followedbydetailsonresearchmethodologyanddatacollection.Themainpartofthepaperprovidesdetailsofthedataanalysisanditsresults.Thisisfollowedbydiscussionofresultsoftheanalysis.Finally,strategic-levelrecommendationsareprovidedfortheimprovementofcostestimationpracticesintheconstructionindustryofPakistanwhichcouldbeequallyapplicableforotherdevelopingconstructionindustries.

Priorstudies

Severalstudieshavebeenconductedrelatedtoaccuracyofcostestimatesforconstructionprojects.Onmanyoccasions,researchershaveattemptedtomeasuretheimpactofcertainprojectcharacteristicsontheaccuracyofestimates（Skitmore1988;Akintoye&Fitzgerald2000）.Akintoye（2000）conductedastudytoidentifyandunder-standthefactorsthatinfluencecontractors’costestimationpracticesintheUK.Itwasconcludedthatthemainfactorsinfluencingcostestimatingpracticesincludedthecomplexityoftheproject,thescaleandscopeoftheconstruction,marketconditions,themethodofconstruction,siteconstraintsandlocation.AibinuandPasco（2008）conductedastudytoexploretheaccuracyofpretenderbuildingcostestimatesinAustralia.Theyidentifiedeightprojectcharacteristicsandconductedanalysisusingmultipleregressionanalysis;theyfoundthattheaccuracyofestimatesisinfluencedbyprojectsize.

Ontheotherhand,certainotherstudieshadnotonlyaccountedforprojectcharacteristicsbutalsootheraspects,suchasprojectteam-relatedfactors,estimatingprocedures,and（costingrelated）informationitems.Carr（1989）conductedastudytodefinethebasicrequirementsfordevelopingreliableestimates.Heconcludedthattheaccuracyoftheestimatedependsontheestimator’sabilitytoseetheprojectfromamacroperspective,hisexperienceandjudgementskills.Ashwarth（1994）concludedthatavailabilityofinformationonthedesign,typeandqualityofcostdata,typeofproject,projectsize,numberofbiddersoncompetitiveprojects,stabilityofmarketconditions,personalfactors,proficiencyinestimating,andsheerquantitativeexperienceinfluencetheaccuracyofestimatingthecostsofconstructionwork.OberlenderandTrost（2001）developedanestimatescoringsystemandconsequentlysoftwaretomeasuretheaccuracyofestimates.Theyfoundthattheaccuracyofanearlyestimatehasfourdeterminants:

‘

（1）whowasinvolvedinpreparingtheestimate;

（2）howtheestimatewasprepared;（3）whatwasknownabouttheproject;and（4）otherfac-torsconsideredwhilepreparingtheestimate’.TrostandOberlender（2003）conductedfactoranalysisandmultivariateregressionanalysistodetermineasuitablemodelforpredictingtheaccuracyofestimates.Theyidentifiedfivefactorsthatweresignificantinpredictingaccuracy.Thesefactorsincluded:

basicprocessdesign,teamexperienceandcostinformation,timeallowedtopreparetheestimate,siterequirements,andbiddingandlabourclimate.Enshassietal（2010）identifiedfactorssuchassupplyofrawmaterialsandequipment,andfluctuationsinthecostofbuildingmaterialsasinfluencingcostoverruns.

Researchobjectivesandscope

TheprimeobjectiveofthisresearchwastoidentifythefactorsthatinfluencetheaccuracyofconstructionprojectcostestimatesinPakistan.Forthispurposeitwasdeemednecessarytoapproachthestudyfromtwomajorperspectives:

（1）thefactorsthatareperceivedtobeinfluencingtheaccuracyand

（2）thefactorsthatdidinrealityinfluencetheaccuracyofcostestimateswhenanalysedusingtheactualcostbiasintheprojectdata.

Researchmethodologyanddatacollection

Athoroughliteraturereviewwasperformedtoidentifythekeyelementsthatmayprovideagoodmeansofjudgingtheaccuracyofcostestimates.Theliteraturereviewwasdonethroughbooks,conferenceproceedings,theinternet,andleadingconstructionmanagementandengineeringjournals.Followingtheidentificationofthekeyelementsofthesurvey,someunstructuredexpertinterviews（23）wereconductedtoverifythekeyelementsaswellasidentifyanyfurtherelementsrelevanttothepracticesandissuesforestimatingcostsinthelocalconstructionindustry.

AstructuredquestionnaireconsistingoftwopartswasdesignedpartsAandB.PartArequestedtherespondent’spersonalinformation（e.g.workexperience,experienceascostestimator,etc.）andcompanyinformation（e.g.typeoforganization,typesofconstructionworkperformed,yearsinbusiness,annualvolumeofwork,numberofpermanentemployees,citiesofoperation,etc.）.PartBrequestedinformationonprojectcosts（e.g.projectname,type,client,estimatedprojectcost,totalprojectcost,estimatedprofitmargin,etc.）.

Thequestionnairewascirculatedamonggeneralcontractors,specialitycontractors,constructionmanagementcontractors,anddesignbuildcontractors.ThesamplingframeforthissurveywasconstructioncontractingcompaniesthatpossessalicenceorareamemberofthePakistanEngineeringCouncil（PEC）,whichisaregulatorybodyfortheengineeringprofessioninPakistan.Therespondentswereaskedtoprovidedataontheirmostrecentlycompletedproject.Thesurveyswereintendedtobefilledbythecostestimatingpersonnelrelatedtotheprojectsurveyed.Afewunstructuredinterviewswithselectedrespondentsfromthevariousgroupsofcontractorswerealsoconductedtoclarifytheirresponses,todiscussthesurveyresults,andtovalidatethesurvey.

Dataanalysisandresults

Generalcharacteristicsofrespondents

ThemajorityoftheresponseswerecollectedfromKarachi.SinceitisthebiggestcityinPakistan,itwasconsideredarepresentativesampleforPakistan’sconstructionindustry.AlloftherespondentswerelocalPakista