六级正题Word文档格式.docx

六级正题Word文档格式.docx

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　　PartIIReadingComprehension（SkimmingandScanning）（15minutes）

　　IntotheUnknown

　　Theworldhasneverseenpopulationageingbefore.Canitcope?

　　Untiltheearly1990snobodymuchthoughtaboutwholepopulationsgettingolder.TheUNhadtheforesighttoconvenea“worldassemblyonageing”backin1982,butthatcameandwent.By1994theWorldBankhadnoticedthatsomethingbigwashappening.Inareportentitled“AvertingtheOldAgeCrisis”,itarguedthatpensionarrangementsinmostcountrieswereunsustainable.

　　Forthenexttenyearsasuccessionofbooks,mainlybyAmericans,soundedthealarm.TheyhadtitleslikeYoungvsOld,GrayDawnandTheComingGenerationalStorm,andtheirmessagewasblunt:

health-caresystemswereheadingfortherocks,pensionersweretakingyoungpeopletothecleaners,andsoontherewouldbeintergenerationalwarfare.

　　Sincethenthedebatehasbecomelessemotional,notleastbecausealotmoreisknownaboutthesubject.Books,conferencesandresearchpapershavemultiplied.InternationalorganisationssuchastheOECDandtheEUissueregularreports.Populationageingisoneveryagenda,fromG8economicconferencestoNATOsummits.TheWorldEconomicForumplanstoconsiderthefutureofpensionsandhealthcareatitsprestigiousDavosconferenceearlynextyear.Themedia,includingthisnewspaper,aregivingthesubjectextensivecoverage.

　　Whetherallthatattentionhastranslatedintosufficientactionisanotherquestion.Governmentsinrichcountriesnowacceptthattheirpensionandhealth-carepromiseswillsoonbecomeunaffordable,andmanyofthemhaveembarkedonreforms,butsofaronlytimidly.Thatisnotsurprising:

politicianswithaneyeonthenextelectionwillhardlyrushtointroduceunpopularmeasuresthatmaynotbearfruitforyears,perhapsdecades.

　　Theoutlineofthechangesneededisclear.Toavoidfiscal（财政）meltdown,publicpensionsandhealth-careprovisionwillhavetobereinedbackseverelyandtaxesmayhavetogoup.Byfarthemosteffectivemethodtorestrainpensionspendingistogivepeopletheopportunitytoworklonger,becauseitincreasestaxrevenuesandreducesspendingonpensionsatthesametime.Itmayevenkeepthemalivelonger.JohnRother,theAARP’sheadofpolicyandstrategy,pointstostudiesshowingthatotherthingsbeingequal,peoplewhoremainatworkhavelowerdeathratesthantheirretiredpeers.

　　Youngerpeopletodaymostlyacceptthattheywillhavetoworkforlongerandthattheirpensionswillbelessgenerous.Employersstillneedtobepersuadedthatolderworkersareworthholdingonto.Thatmaybebecausetheyhavehadplentyofyoungeronestochoosefrom,partlythankstothepost-warbaby-boomandpartlybecauseoverthepastfewdecadesmanymorewomenhaveenteredthelabourforce,increasingemployers’choice.Butthereservoirofwomenableandwillingtotakeuppaidworkisrunninglow,andthebaby-boomersaregoinggrey.

　　Inmanycountriesimmigrantshavebeenfillingsuchgapsinthelabourforceashavealreadyemerged（andrememberthattherealshortageisstillaroundtenyearsoff）.Immigrationinthedevelopedworldisthehighestithaseverbeen,anditismakingausefuldifference.Instill-fertileAmericaitcurrentlyaccountsforabout40%oftotalpopulationgrowth,andinfast-ageingwesternEuropeforabout90%.

　　Onthefaceofit,itseemstheperfectsolution.Manydevelopingcountrieshavelotsofyoungpeopleinneedofjobs;

manyrichcountriesneedhelpinghandsthatwillboosttaxrevenuesandkeepupeconomicgrowth.Butoverthenextfewdecadeslabourforcesinrichcountriesaresettoshrinksomuchthatinflowsofimmigrantswouldhavetoincreaseenormouslytocompensate:

toatleasttwicetheircurrentsizeinwesternEurope’smostyouthfulcountries,andthreetimesintheolderones.Japanwouldneedalargemultipleofthefewimmigrantsithasatpresent.Publicopinionpollsshowthatpeopleinmostrichcountriesalreadythinkthatimmigrationistoohigh.Furtherbigincreaseswouldbepoliticallyunfeasible.

　　Totackletheproblemofageingpopulationsatitsroot,“old”countrieswouldhavetorejuvenate（使年轻）themselvesbyhavingmoreoftheirownchildren.Anumberofthemhavetried,somemoresuccessfullythanothers.Butitisnotasimplematterofofferingfinancialincentivesorprovidingmorechildcare.Modernurbanlifeinrichcountriesisnotwelladaptedtolargefamilies.Womenfindithardtocombinefamilyandcareer.Theyoftencompromisebyhavingjustonechild.

　　Andiffertilityinageingcountriesdoesnotpickup?

Itwillnotbetheendoftheworld,atleastnotforquiteawhileyet,buttheworldwillslowlybecomeadifferentplace.Oldersocietiesmaybelessinnovativeandmorestronglydisinclinedtotakerisksthanyoungerones.By2025atthelatest,abouthalfthevotersinAmericaandmostofthoseinwesternEuropeancountrieswillbeover50—andolderpeopleturnouttovoteinmuchgreaternumberthanyoungerones.Academicstudieshavefoundnoevidencesofarthatoldervotershaveusedtheirpowerattheballotboxtopushforpoliciesthatspecificallybenefitthem,thoughifinfuturetherearemanymoreofthemtheymightstartdoingso.

　　Noristhereanysignoftheintergenerationalwarfarepredictedinthe1990s.Afterall,olderpeoplethemselvesmostlyhavefamilies.Inarecentstudyofparentsandgrown-upchildrenin11Europeancountries,KarstenHankofMannheimUniversityfoundthat85%ofthemlivedwithin25kmofeachotherandthemajorityofthemwereintouchatleastonceaweek.

　　Evenso,theshiftinthecentreofgravitytoolderagegroupsisboundtohaveaprofoundeffectonsocieties,notjusteconomicallyandpoliticallybutinallsortsofotherwaystoo.RichardJacksonandNeilHoweofAmerica’sCSIS,inathoughtfulbookcalledTheGrayingoftheGreatPowers,arguethat,amongotherthings,theageingofthedevelopedcountrieswillhaveanumberofserioussecurityimplications.

　　Forexample,theshortageofyoungadultsislikelytomakecountriesmorereluctanttocommitthefewtheyhavetomilitaryservice.Inthedecadesto2050,Americawillfinditselfplayinganever-increasingroleinthedevelopedworld’sdefenceeffort.BecauseAmerica’spopulationwillstillbegrowingwhenthatofmostotherdevelopedcountriesisshrinking,Americawillbetheonlydevelopedcountrythatstillmattersgeopolitically（地缘政治上）.

　　Askmein2020

　　Thereislittlethatcanbedonetostoppopulationageing,sotheworldwillhavetolivewithit.Butsomeoftheconsequencescanbealleviated.Manyexpertsnowbelievethatgiventherightpolicies,theeffects,thoughgrave,neednotbecatastrophic.Mostcountrieshaverecognisedtheneedtodosomethingandarebeginningtoact.

　　Buteventhenthereisnoguaranteethattheireffortswillwork.Whatishappeningnowishistoricallyunprecedented.RonaldLee,directoroftheCentreontheEconomicsandDemographyofAgeingattheUniversityofCalifornia,Berkeley,putsitbrieflyandclearly:

“Wedon’treallyknowwhatpopulationageingwillbelike,becausenobodyhasdoneityet.“

　　注意：

此部分试题请在答题卡1上作答。

　　1.Inits1994report,theWorldBankarguedthatthecurrentpensionsysteminmostcountriescould______.

　　[A]notbesustainedinthelongterm

　　[B]furtheracceleratetheageingprocess

　　[C]hardlyhaltthegrowthofpopulation

　　[D]helptideoverthecurrentageingcrisis

　　2.WhatmessageisconveyedinbookslikeYoungvsOld?

　　[A]Thegenerationgapisboundtonarrow.

　　[B]Intergenerationalconflictswillintensify.

　　[C]Theyoungergenerationwillbeattheold.

　　[D]Oldpeopleshouldgivewaytotheyoung.

　　3.Onereasonwhypensionandhealthcarereformsareslowincomingisthat______.

　　[A]nobodyiswillingtosacrificetheirownintereststotackletheproblem

　　[B]mostpeopleareagainstmeasuresthatwillnotbearfruitimmediately

　　[C]theproposedreformswillaffecttoomanypeople’sinterests

　　[D]politiciansareafraidoflosingvotesinthenextelection

　　4.Theauthorbelievesthemosteffectivemethodtosolvethepensioncrisisisto______.

　　[A]allowpeopletoworklonger[C]cutbackonhealthcareprovisions

　　[B]increasetaxrevenues[D]startreformsrightaway

　　5.Thereasonwhyemployersareunwillingtokeepolderworkersisthat______.

　　[A]theyaregenerallydifficulttomanage

　　[B]thelongertheywork,thehighertheirpension

　　[C]theirpayishigherthanthatofyoungerones

　　[D]youngerworkersarereadilyavailable

　　6.Tocompensateforthefast-shrinkinglabourforce,Japanwouldneed______.

　　[A]toreviseitscurrentpopulationcontrolpolicy

　　[B]largenumbersofimmigrantsfromoverseas

　　[C]toautomateitsmanufacturingandserviceindustries

　　[D]apoliticallyfeasiblepolicyconcerningpopulation

　　7.Whydomanywomeninrichcountriescompromisebyhavingonlyonechild?

　　[A]Smallfamiliesarebecomingmorefashionable.

　　[B]Theyfindithardtobalancecareerandfamily.

　　[C]Itistooexpensivetosupportalargefamily.

　　[D]Childcareistoobigaproblemforthem.

　　8.Comparedwithyoungerones,oldersocietiesarelessinclinedto______________________________.

　　9.Thepredictedintergenerationalwarfareisunlikelybecausemostoftheolderpeoplethemselves_________________________.

　　10.Countriesthathaveashortageofyoungadultswillbelesswillingtocommitthemto____________________________.

　　PartIIIListeningComprehension（35minutes）

　　SectionA

　　Directions:

Inthissection,youwillhear8shortconversationsand2long