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财务管理
Chapter4
FinancialPlanningandForecasting
Definitionsaboutbudgetingandpercentofsalesmethod→topredictthefutureassets/liabilitiesaccordingtotherelationshipbetweenthepresentsalesrevenueandassets/liabilities.→DFN(Discretionaryfinancingneeds)/AFN(Additionalfundsneeded).
1.Budget(putthingsinPerspective)isaquantitativeexpressionofaplanofactionthathelpsmanagerscoordinateandimplementtheplan.
(1)comprehensivebudget(全面预算体系):
asetoffinancialstatementandotherschedulesshowingtheexpectedresultsforafutureperiod.
(2)thecomprehensivebudgetisatooltomakeplanningefficientandalsoprovidesameansformonitoringwhetheractivitiesaregoingaccordingtoplan.
Itshouldinclude:
(1)financialbudgets:
proformabalancesheet;cashbudget;proformaincomestatement.
(2)operatingbudgets:
productionschedules;purchasingschedules;fixedassetacquisition(capitalbudgeting).
2.Organizationofbudget:
(1)continuousbudget(延续或滚动预算):
abudgetforamonth(oraquarter)willbeaddedasoneoftheseperiodsgoesby.Thustherewouldbea12monthbudgetatalltimes.
bypreparingcontinuousbudgets,managersarethenkeptawareoftheneedsforthenext12months,regardlessofthetimeoftheyear.
(2)staticbudget(静态预算)(preparedforonlyonlevelofvolumewhichistheorganization’sgoal):
thestaticbudgetisnotalteredafteritisdrawnup,regardlessofchangesinvolume,saleprices,orcosts.
thefocusofthestaticbudgetisfutureplanning.
(3)flexiblebudget(弹性预算)(asetofbudgetscoveringarangeofvolumeratherthanasinglevolumelevel.Itisalsocalledavariancebudget):
theflexiblebudgetshowshowrevenuesandcostsvarywithvolumethroughoutthebudgetrange;thefocusoftheflexiblebudgetisevaluatingpastperformance.
3.After-taxcashflow=Earningsaftertaxes+depreciationexpense+deferredtaxes
4.Percentofsalesmethod:
permitsacompanytoforecasttheamountoffinancingitwillneedforagivenincreaseinsales.
(1)***/currentsales=***%
(2)projectedsales×***%=$$$
(3)projectedsales×(netincome/sales)×[1-(cashdividends/netincome)]=&&&
(4)discretionaryfinancingneeded=projectedtotalassets–projectedtotalliabilities–projectedowner’sequity
5.DFN(Discretionaryfinancingneeds):
fundsthatafirmmustraiseexternallythroughborrowingorbysellingnewcommonorpreferredstock.
EFN(Externalfinancingneeds):
Allthefirm’sneedsforfinancingbeyondthefundsprovidedinternallythroughtheretentionofearnings,thusEFN=Predictedchangeintotalassets–predictedchangeinretainedearnings.
Chapter5
TheTimeValueofMoney
FVn=PV0(1+i)n=PV0FVIFi,n
Compoundedinterest→
PV0=FVn[1/(1+i)n]=FVnPVIFi.n
FVAn=PMT×FVIFAi,n
Ordinaryannuity
PV=PMT×PVIFAi,n
Annuitiesdue=Annuities×(1+i)
Annuities
Delayedannuity(unevencashflowstreams):
先把不均衡的年金加成均等,用普通年金方法算完后,减去多加(加上多减)的钱数的现值。
PV=R/I→perpetuity
PerpetuityandGrowingperpetuity
PV=R/i-g→Growingperpetuity,growthrate=g
Chapter6
AnalysisofRiskandReturn
Theriskandreturnofonecertainasset→...oftwoassets→...ofnassets→...ofarisk-free
assetandnriskyassets→therelationshipbetweenariskyassetandnriskyassets→howto
decidethepriceofariskyasset
1.concepts:
(1)holdingperiodreturn→R=[Dt+(Pt-Pt-1)]/Pt-1
↓↓↓
Dividendendingbeginning
priceprice
(2)expectedreturn:
r=E(r)多个资产时加权平均
(3)σ=标准差=standarddeviationσAB=Cov(RA,RB)=E[(RAt-E(RA))(RBt-E(RB))]
σp2=XA2σA2+XB2σB2+2(XAσA)(XBσB)ρABp=portfolio
(4)z=[r-E(r)]/σ即标准化成标准正态分布,z是横轴上的值
(5)v=σ/E(r)变异系数用于比较两种不同规模的投资的风险的时候
(6)ρ相关系数ρAB=Corr(RA,RB)=σAB/σAσB
(7)requiredreturn=risk-freereturn+riskpremium=realrateofreturn+expectedinflationpremium
2.theriskandreturnoftwoassets(graph)
3.Theriskandreturnofnassets&arisk-freeassetandnriskyassets(graph)
efficientfrontier
capitalmarketline(CML)
optimalriskyportfolio(CML与efficientfrontier的切点)
4.therelationshipbetweenariskyassetandnriskyassets
(1)βj=Covariancej,m/variancem=ρjmσjσm/σm2
(2)varianceandstandarddeviationinaportfolioofmanyassets:
thevarianceoftheindividualassetscompletelyvanishasthenumberofassetsbecomeslarge.However,thecovariancetermsremain.σp2=σ*(σ*=allcovariancesinthetable)
(3)characteristicline:
y=ax+ba=β
5.howtodecidethepriceofariskyasset
CapitalAssetPricingModel(CAPM):
Ri=RF+βI(RM–RF)
Expectedreturnonasecurity=risk-freerate+betaofthesecurity×marketriskpremium
MajorproblemsofCAPM:
1.Estimatingexpectedfuturemarketreturns
2.Determininganappropriaterf
3.Determiningthebestestimateofβ
4.Investorsdon’totallyignoreunsystematicrisk
5.Betasarefrequentlyunstableovertime
6.Requiredreturnsaredeterminedbymacroeconomicfactors
6.名词解释:
1)CML:
capitalmarketline(graph)
2)SML(securitymarketline):
therelationshipbetweensystematicriskandrequiredratesofreturnforindividualsecurities.(graph)
3)CAPM(Capitalassetspricingmodel)
4)CL(Characteristicline)(graph)
Chapter7&8
ValuationofSecurities
Definitionsofvalue→characteristicsofbondspreferredstockandcommonstock→bondvaluation
1.Definitionsofvalue:
liquidationvalueVSgoing-concernvalue(清算价值与持续经营价值)
BookvalueVSmarketvalue(账面价值与市场价值)
bookvalue=accounting/historicvalue
marketvalue=normallyrelatedtoexpectedfuturecashflow
*marketvaluedoesnotnecessarilybearanyrelationshiptobookvalue
*marketvaluemaybeeithergreaterorlessthanbookvalue
Intrinsicvalue/economicvalueVSMarketvalue(内在价值/经济价值与市场价值)
2.Bonds:
1)Differentkindsofbondspurediscountbond(无息债券)
level-couponbonds(普通债券)
consols(perpetualbonds)(永续债券)
2)Featuresofbondsindenture(合同约束)
callfeatureandbondrefunding(赎回条款)
sinkingfund(偿债基金条款)
convertible(可转换性)
warrant(认股权证)
bondratings(债券信用评级)
Preferredstock:
featuresofpreferredstocksellingpriceandparvalue(面值与销售价格)
adjustablerates(可调整收益率)
cumulativedividends(可累积)现在没钱,以后会补齐。
participation(参与盈余分配)
maturity(到期日)
callfeature(可赎回条款)
votingrights(投票权)无投票权
preferredstock’sclaimonassetsandincome(对公司收益和资产的优先索取权)
convertibility(可转换性)
Commonstock:
featuresofcommonstockresidualclaimonincomeandassets(剩余索取权)
preemptiverights(优先认股权)
limitedliability(有限责任)
takeover(接管)或代理proxy
closelyheldcorporation/privatelyowned(紧密持股公司)
publiclyownedcorporation/tobelisted(上市公司/公众公司)
3.Bondvaluation:
PV=F/(1+i)n→purediscountbonds
PV=CF/i→perpetualbonds(consols)
PV=I×PVIFAi,n+M×PVIFi,n→level-couponbonds
Chapter9
CapitalBudgetingandCashFlowAnalysis
Principlesofestimatingcashflows→howtodealwithtaxes,depreciation,andworkingcapital.
1.Principlesofestimatingcashflows:
1)onanincrementalbasis
→ifcashflowstillexistwhenprojectdoesnotexist,thenexcludeit.
2)onanaftertaxbasis
3)includeindirecteffects
→ifnewproductcausesexistingcustomerstodemandlessofcurrentproducts,weneedtorecognizethat.
4)excludesunkcosts
→sunkcostsareirrelevant
5)opportunitycostsofresources
2.EstimatingtheNINV:
step1costplusinstallationandshipping
plus
step2increasesinnetworkingcapital
minus
step3netproceedsfromsaleofexistingassets
plusorminus(高于账面价值时算正outflow)
step4taxesassociatedwiththeabovesale
equals
NINV
Tax:
savingsbeforetaxes(profitcolumn)×taxrate=$$$
netcashflowaftertaxes=savingsbeforetaxes(cashflowcolumn)-$$$
Depreciation:
increaseddepreciationexpense(profitcolumn),nothingaddedtothecashflowcolumn.
Recoveryofnetworkingcapital:
thetotalamountofaccumulatednetworkingcapitalisusuallyrecoveredattheendofthelifeoftheproject.
Theresultingdecreaseinnetworkingcapitalrepresentsanincreaseinnetcashflow.
Therearegenerallynotaxconsiderationsassociatedwiththerecoveryofnetworkingcapital.
Chapter10&11
CapitalBudgeting:
DecisionCriteria&Risk
Lifeoftheproject→(EAA)
NPVusedwhentwoprojects
IRRNPV与IRR不一致时→”NPVistheking!
”aremutuallyexclusive.
PI
PB
Differentinitialoutlays→IIRR/NPV(same)
MultipleIRRs(现金流有正有负)→MIRR→usedtosolvetheinternalproblemofaproject.
1.Concepts:
1)NPV(netpresentvalue):
—IO(NINV)
NPV≥0accept
NPV<0reject
2)PI(profitabilityindex):
PI=
÷IO(NINV)
PI≥1accept
PI<1reject
3)IRR(internalrateofreturn):
—IO=0求出IRR
IRR≥requiredrateofreturn(贴现率)accept
IRR<requiredrateofreturnreject
4)PB(paybackperiod):
Thepaybackperiodisthenumberofyearsneededtorecovertheinitialcashoutlay.
2.Lifeoftheproject:
A与B两项投资,持续时间不同。
步骤1,算出两项投资的NPV
2,利用NPV=EAA×PVIFAi,n求出两项投资的EAA
3.NPV与IRR不一致的时候(图):
4.Differentinitialoutlays
Date0
Date1
NPV(25%)
IRR
A
-10m
40m
22m
300%
B
-25m
65m
27m
160%
-15m
25m
IncrementalIRR:
(-15m+25m)/(1+IIRR)=0求出IIRR=66.67%>25%accept
NPVofincrementalcashflows:
(-15m+25m)/(1+25%)=5m>0accept
AcceptprojectB.
5.现金流有正有负时:
MIRR
PVout=PVin把负的现金流都贴到期初,把正的现金流都贴到期末,再把贴到期末的现金流除以(1+MIRR)n,贴回期初,令它与PVout相等,求MIRR。
公式:
Chapter12
TheCostofCapital
Costofdebt→valueofbonds×(1-t)
Preferredstock→发行费用(价格)
f=WACC→
Retainedearning
→Ri=Rf+β(Rm–Rf)
Newissuedstocks
1.CalculatingKa:
Ka=We(Ke)+Wd(Ki)+Wp(Kp)
1)Ki(after-taxcostofdebt):
利用P=It×PVIFAKd,n+M×PVIFKd,n求出Kd,再利用
Ki=Kd×(1-t)求出Ki
或者
Ki=I(1-t)/B(1-F)
↓↓↓↓
Interesttaxrateparvalueflotation(floatingfee)
ofthebond
↓↓
实际付出的钱公司实际拿到的钱
2)Kp(costofpreferredstock):
Kp=D