现金流贴现估值(公司的自由现金流FCFF).xls

现金流贴现估值(公司的自由现金流FCFF).xls

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最新修改增加了FCFE估值、DDM估值、APV估值、EVA估值和AE估值。

原先的估值对应FCFF估值。

其他估值模型有些数是链接到FCFF的，因此FCFF的估值要做全更改了自由现金流定义EBIT（1-所得税率）折旧资本支出非现金性流动资本变化预测前首先需要自己输入的数据3主营收入及成本：

各公司收入及成本的预测方法不尽相同，需要分析师自己做4预测假设：

各种假设条件5固定资产预测：

历史折旧和摊销7损益表及利润分配：

2003-2004A利润数据8资产负债表：

2003-2004历史数据7损益表及利润分配、8资产负债表：

无公式的单元格需要手动填入，如一些特殊会计科目DCF估值（FCFF）：

分析日期、股本结构，假设条件中的“第二阶段增长率、长期增长率、应付债券利率、”。

注意：

第二阶段（2010-2017）年数不可更改。

其他估值模型：

各假设条件（第二阶段年数也不可更改）11输出结果：

2003-2004年经营活动现金流量、投资活动现金流量、融资活动现金流量增加了FCFE估值、DDM估值、APV估值、EVA估值和AE估值。

原先的估值对应FCFF估值。

其他估值模型有些数是链接到FCFF的，因此FCFF的估值要做全DCF估值（FCFF）：

分析日期、股本结构，假设条件中的“第二阶段增长率、长期增长率、应付债券利率、”。

注意：

第二阶段（2010-2017）年数不可更改。

估估值值过过程程中中所所用用的的固固定定参参数数参参数数数数值值无风险利率Rf5.00%平均风险股票必要报酬率Rm10.00%一般情景预测历史数据区名名称称20032004产产品品分分产产品品收收入入/合合并并报报表表炸药收入20,587.0023,960.00管类收入5,806.006,467.00索类收入1,890.002,297.00爆破工程收入6,152.006,978.00炸药收入增长率16.38%管类收入增长率11.38%索类收入增长率21.53%爆破工程收入增长率13.43%分分产产品品价价格格炸药均价/元/吨4,860.353,872.41管类均价/元/万发7,541.245,259.54索类均价/元/万米3,302.465,688.08炸药价格上涨幅度-20.33%管类价格上涨幅度-30.26%索类价格上涨幅度72.24%分分产产品品产产销销量量炸药产销量/吨42,357.0061873.68管类产销量/万发7,699.0012295.75索类产销量/万米5,723.004038.27炸药产销量增长率46.08%管类产销量增长率59.71%索类产销量增长率-29.44%主主要要产产品品收收入入合合计计（万万元元）34,435.0039,827.00其它产品收入（万元）0.000.00其它产品占主营收入比例0.00%0.00%主主营营业业务务收收入入（万万元元）34,43539,827调调整整比比例例0.00%0.00%主主营营业业务务收收入入（万万元元）调调整整后后34,43539,827主营收入增长率%15.7%主主营营业业务务成成本本预预测测20032004主营业务成本22729.0028039.00折旧人工硝酸铵煤电其他硝酸铵价格煤价电价其他均价硝酸铵用量煤用量电用量其他均用量主营业务税金及附加350.00401.00主营业务利润11356.0011387.00主营业务利润增长率0.27%主主营营业业务务毛毛利利率率33.99%29.60%子公司收入预测并并表表子子公公司司股股权权比比例例20032004贵州新联爆破工程有限公司97.62%贵州久联化工有限责任公司51.00%贵州久联民爆器材经营有限责任公司40.00%利润总额贵州新联爆破工程有限公司贵州久联化工有限责任公司贵州久联民爆器材经营有限责任公司子公司净利润预测并并表表子子公公司司股股权权比比例例20032004贵州新联爆破工程有限公司贵州久联化工有限责任公司贵州久联民爆器材经营有限责任公司合合计计少少数数股股东东权权益益333.00672.00调调整整后后少少数数股股东东权权益益333.00333.00672.00672.00公司产品结构调整计划表/来自04H招股说明书铵梯炸药/吨3000030000铵油炸药/吨12601380混装车铵油炸药/吨00粉状乳化炸药/吨00澎化硝铵炸药/吨00乳化炸药/吨70508000火雷管/万发35702970普通电雷管/万发19312100钝感电雷管/万发00普通导爆管雷管/万发387430高强度导爆管雷管/万发00导火索/万米16401340普通导爆索/万米267300低能导爆索/万米00导爆管/万米29983300行业产品知道价调整状况（含增值税）/元/吨/元/万反/元/万米1994年指导价1996指导价岩石铵梯油炸药2831.44668.3岩石乳化炸药3437.94539.6煤矿乳化炸药4024.84855.5火雷管35003837电雷管6481.87274.3导火索5311.85709.6注:

按照05年指导价公司炸药实际调升630元/吨,管类调升670元/吨,索类调升470元/吨,幅度分别为15%12%与14%.2003A耗电660万千瓦时,消耗煤炭8800吨显性期预测20052006E2007E2008E2009E2010E31,174.0034,677.9640,781.2850,405.6655,446.2358,218.549,106.009,845.4111,357.6613,453.1514,125.8115,008.672,954.003,346.884,002.874,535.254,762.025,000.124,541.005,222.156,266.586,893.247,237.907,599.7930.11%11.24%17.60%23.60%10.00%5.00%40.81%8.12%15.36%18.45%5.00%6.25%28.60%13.30%19.60%13.30%5.00%5.00%-34.92%15.00%20.00%10.00%5.00%5.00%4,618.514,757.064,994.925,144.765,144.765,144.767,174.097,317.577,537.107,763.217,763.217,763.215,742.225,914.496,151.076,335.606,335.606,335.6019.27%3.00%5.00%3.00%0.00%0.00%36.40%2.00%3.00%3.00%0.00%0.00%0.95%3.00%4.00%3.00%0.00%0.00%67498.0072,897.8481,645.5897,974.70107,772.17113,160.7712692.9013,454.4715,069.0117,329.3618,195.8319,333.075144.355,658.796,507.607,158.367,516.287,892.109.09%8.00%12.00%20.00%10.00%5.00%3.23%6.00%12.00%15.00%5.00%6.25%27.39%10.00%15.00%10.00%5.00%5.00%47,847.0053,092.4062,408.3975,287.3081,571.9585,827.120.000.000.000.000.000.000.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%47,84753,09262,40875,28781,57285,8270.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%47,84753,09262,40875,28781,57285,82720.1%11.0%17.5%20.6%8.3%5.2%20052006E2007E2008E2009E2010E31019.0032507.4636094.0742617.3446367.0948785.783000.003240.003628.804354.564790.025029.527500.007950.008904.0010239.6010751.5811423.5513888.0014805.5016365.4019508.4321459.2722532.24497.31527.15553.51636.53623.80662.79407.96448.75471.83519.01510.90536.455725.736104.006747.118042.928847.219289.571550.001530.001510.001500.001500.001500.00320.00320.00300.00300.00280.00280.000.350.350.320.320.300.308.969.6810.8413.0114.3115.021.551.651.852.122.232.371165.591282.151474.471621.921703.011788.17508.00580.00650.00700.00750.00800.0016320.0020004.9425664.3231969.9634454.8636241.3443.32%22.58%28.29%24.57%7.77%5.18%35.17%37.68%41.12%42.46%42.24%42.23%20052006E2007E2008E2009E2010E6,687.008,363.00604.621,274.162,041.7520052006E2007E2008E2009E2010E505.00606.00666.60733.26769.92808.42945.101,134.121,247.531,372.291,440.901,512.941,065.001,278.001,405.801,546.381,623.701,704.881,242.001,336.941,470.641,617.701,698.581,783.511,242.001,242.001,336.941,470.641,617.701,698.581,783.513000025000150005000150050006200740003000350040000120001600020000030003600400088009700107001230023701770117057023002600280030900200025003000500600800100006008001000104074034014035060080010000600800100036004200560070002005年指导价注:

按照05年指导价公司炸药实际调升630元/吨,管类调升670元/吨,索类调升470元/吨,幅度分别为15%12%与14%.2003A耗电660万千瓦时,消耗煤炭8800吨一般情景预测11、经经营营活活动动200420052006E2007E2008E主营业务收入同比增长率15.66%20.14%10.96%17.55%20.64%主营业务成本/主营业务收入70.40%64.83%62.32%58.88%57.54%主营业务税金及附加/主营业务收入（营业税率）1.01%1.06%1.03%1.03%1.03%营业费用/主营业务收入3.00%3.29%3.15%3.15%3.15%管理费用/主营业务收入13.52%17.32%15.42%15.42%15.42%实际税率22.62%26.14%24.38%24.38%24.38%股利分配比例0.00%109.31%50.00%50.00%50.00%22、营营运运资资金金200420052006E2007E2008E货币资金/主营业务收入75.62%59.76%59.76%59.76%59.76%应收帐款周转天数（相对于主营业务收入）56.1844.4850.3350.3350.33应收票据周转天数（相对于主营业务收入）3.522.382.952.952.95存货周转天数（相对于主营业务成本）31.0137.0234.0134.0134.01应付票据周转天数（相对于主营业务成本）2.035.513.773.773.77应付帐款周转天数（相对于主营业务成本）22.2630.8026.5326.5326.53预付帐款增加/主营业务成本1.85%2.91%2.38%2.38%2.38%待摊费用增加/营业费用和管理费用0.44%0.30%0.37%0.37%0.37%预收帐款（负债）增加/主营业务收入3.56%1.23%2.39%2.39%2.39%预提费用增加/营业费用和管理费用-0.02%0.09%0.04%0.04%0.04%其他流动资产增加/主营业务收入增加0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%其他流动负债增加/主营业务收入增加0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%其他长期资产增加/主营业务收入增加0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%其他长期负债增加/主营业务收入增加0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%坏帐准备/应收帐款0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%短期投资跌价准备#DIV/0!

#DIV/0!

0.00%0.00%0.00%存货跌价准备（含工程亏损准备）0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%长期投资减值准备0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%固定资产减值准备0.47%0.37%0.42%0.42%0.42%在建工程减值准备0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%33、资资本本性性投投资资a、假定固定资产采用直直线线法法折旧b、现有固定资产和新建固定资产的折旧年限平均为13年残值率为5.00%年折旧率=7.31%c、各年的固定资产投资如下：

20042004200520052006E2007E2008E4,642.004,404.006,000.005,000.003,000.004、债债务务和和利利息息200420052006E2007E2008Ea、最低货币资金为主营业务收入的59.76%b、银行长期贷款利率为6.00%c、现金不足时增加短期贷款，利率为5.50%d、现金存款利率为1.35%预计银行长期贷款增加额（万元）0.000.000.000.000.002009E2010E8.35%5.22%57.76%57.77%1.03%1.03%3.15%3.15%15.42%15.42%24.38%24.38%50.00%50.00%2009E2010E59.76%59.76%50.3350.332.952.9534.0134.013.773.7726.5326.532.38%2.38%0.37%0.37%2.39%2.39%0.04%0.04%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.42%0.42%0.00%0.00%2009E2010E1,000.001,000.002009E2010E0.000.00经经营营情情景景分分析析情情景景选选择择22一一般般情情景景预预测测会会计计年年度度截截止止日日：

12/3112/312006E2007E1销售收入增长率10.96%17.55%2销货成本/销售收入62.32%58.88%3管理费用/销售收入15.42%15.42%营业费用/销售收入3.15%3.15%股利分配比例50.00%50.00%11乐乐观观情情景景预预测测销售收入增长率12.06%19.30%销货成本/销售收入61.07%57.70%管理费用/销售收入14.65%14.65%营业费用/销售收入2.99%2.99%股利分配比例55.00%55.00%22一一般般情情景景预预测测销售收入增长率10.96%17.55%销货成本/销售收入62.32%58.88%管理费用/销售收入15.42%15.42%营业费用/销售收入3.15%3.15%股利分配比例50.00%50.00%33保保守守情情景景预预测测销售收入增长率9.87%15.79%销货成本/销售收入63.57%60.05%管理费用/销售收入16.19%16.19%营业费用/销售收入3.30%3.30%股利分配比例45.00%45.00%2008E2009E2010E20.64%8.3%5.22%57.54%57.8%57.77%15.42%15.4%15.42%3.15%3.1%3.15%50.00%50.0%50.00%22.70%9.18%5.74%56.39%56.61%56.62%14.65%14.65%14.65%2.99%2.99%2.99%55.00%55.00%55.00%20.64%8.35%5.22%57.54%57.76%57.77%15.42%15.42%15.42%3.15%3.15%3.15%50.00%50.00%50.00%18.57%7.51%4.69%58.69%58.92%58.93%16.19%16.19%16.19%3.30%3.30%3.30%45.00%45.00%45.00%历历史史折折旧旧：

200320042005固固定定资资产产折折旧旧原值8,758.0010,302.0015,056.00折旧764.001,228.00折旧率0.00%7.42%8.16%假假设设：

现有固定资产的折旧年限/折旧率7.31%使使用用直直线线折折旧旧法法新建固定资产的折旧年限/折旧率6.00%2006E2007E2008E2009E2010E初始固定资产原值15,0561,100.251,100.251,100.251,100.251,100.252005固定资产投资+在建工程转6,565393.87393.87393.87393.87393.872006固定资产投资+在建工程转5,782346.94346.94346.94346.942007固定资产投资+在建工程转4,391263.47263.47263.472008固定资产投资+在建工程转2,696161.73161.732009固定资产投资+在建工程转1,848110.87在建工程期初余额7,129.006,564.505,782.254,391.132,695.56新增工程物资0.000.000.000.000.00新增在建工程6,000.005,000.003,000.001,000.001,000.00转固定资产6,564.505,782.254,391.132,695.561,847.78在建工程期末余额6,564.505,782.254,391.132,695.561,847.78期初固定资产合计18,951.0023,456.8826,615.8327,511.3126,245.06+固定资产投资6,000.005,000.003,000.001,000.001,000.00折旧1,494.121,841.052,104.522,266.252,377.12固定资产减值准备0.000.000.000.000.00期期末末固固定定资资产产合合计计23,456.8826,615.8327,511.3126,245.0624,867.94无无形形资资产产投投资资和和折折旧旧历历史史摊摊销销：

200220032004摊销假假设设：

不考虑无形资产增加，无形资产采用直线法摊销，摊销年限10年20052006E2007E2008E2009E2010E期初无形资产净值4,572.004,114.803,657.603,200.402,743.20摊销457.20457.20457.20457.20457.20期末无形资产净值4,572.004,114.803,657.603,200.402,743.202,286.00一般情景预测利利润润表表（单单位位：

万万元元）历史数据区显性期预测会计年度截止日：

12/312003200420052006E2007E2008E2009E2010E主主营营业业务务收收入入34,43539,82747,84753,09262,40875,28781,57285,827增增长长率率15.7%20.1%11.0%17.5%20.6%8.3%5.2%减：

折扣与折让主主营营业业务务收收入入净净额额34,43539,82747,84753,09262,40875,28781,57285,827减：

主营业务成本22,72928,03931,01933,08736,74443,31747,11749,586主营业务税金及附加350401508549645779844888主主营营业业务务利利润润11,35611,38716,32019,45625,01931,19133,61135,354毛毛利利率率34.0%29.6%35.2%37.7%41.1%42.5%42.2%42.2%加：

其他业务利润181.00220.00186.0050.0050.00100.00100.00100.00减：

存货跌价损失0.000.000.000.000.000.000.00营业费用1,618.001,194.001,576.001,670.231,963.312,368.462,566.172,700.03管理费用5,076.005,385.008,289.008,188.169,624.9211,611.1612,580.4113,236.67利息费用551.69743.02909.61827.23462.64利息收入407.16465.90555.43632.73675.25汇兑损益（收益为正）其他0.000.000.000.000.00财务费用547.00213.0077.00144.53277.11354.18194.50（212.61）营营业业利利润润4,296.004,815.006,564.009,502.8913,203.5016,957.4818,370.0919,729.55加：

投资收益（57.00）（55.00）（38.00）0.000.000.000.000.00加：

期货收益0.000.000.000.000.000.000.00补贴收入30.0083.002.000.000.000.000.000.00营业外收入18.009.0012.0050.0050.0050.0050.0050.00减：

营业外支出50.0019.0090.0080.0080.0080.0080.0080.00加：

以前年度损益调整税税前前利利润润4,237.004,833.006,450.009,472.8913,173.5016,927.4818,340.0919,699.55减：

所得税848.001,093.001,686.002,309.253,211.364,126.494,470.844,802.25实际税率20.0%22.6%26.1%24.4%24.4%24.4%24.4%24.4%加：

财政返还减：

少数股东损益333.00672.001,242.001,336.941,470.641,617.701,698.581,783.51加：

未确认的投资损失减：

购并利润净净利利润润3,056.003,068.003,522.005,826.708,491.5011,183.2912,170.6613,113.79销销售售净净利利率率8.9%7.7%7.4%11.0%13.6%14.9%14.9%15.3%净净利利润润增增长长率率0.4%14.8%65.4%45.7%31.7%8.8%7.7%发行在外股份数量（万股）11,000.0011,000.0011,000.0011,000.0011,000.0011,000.0011,000.0011,000.00EPSEPS0.2780.2