外刊第1期.docx

外刊第1期.docx

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外刊第1期

2016年外刊第2期

Passage1:

BoJobreaksranks

BorisJohnsoniswrong:

inthe21stcentury,sovereigntyisalwaysrelative

Feb21st2016,15:

54 BYBAGEHOT

TODAYthecommentariat,andalmostnooneelse,hasbeenwaitingexcitedlyforBorisJohnsontoshowhiscoloursinBritain’supcomingEUreferendum.Thegreatmomentcameat3:

30pmwiththeBBC’sconfirmationofpriorreportsthatLondon’smayorwouldbackaBrexitvote.ThisnewsisbadfortheIncampaign—heisthecountry’smostpopularpolitician,afterall—thoughnotnearlyasmuchassomeexcitedEuroscepticswillclaiminthecominghours.ItpositionsMrJohnsontorunfortheConservativeleadershipshouldDavidCameronlosethereferendum,andperhaps,thoughnotasimmediately,ifhedoesnot.Butshamelesslyself-interestedandprobablycontrarytohisrealviewsontheEUthoughitis,themayor’smoveisperhapsnotentirelydisingenuous.HehasalwaysinsistedthathisdecisionwouldturnonhisconcernsthatEUmembershipisincompatiblewithBritishsovereignty.Expecthimtoconcentrateonthisobjectioninthecomingdays.

MrJohnsonhasthusalignedhimselfsquarelywithMichaelGove,thejusticesecretarywithwhomheconsortedearlierintheweekandwhodeclaredhissupportforBrexitonFridayina1,500-wordstatementthatoverwhelminglyconcentratedonnationalself-rule.The"decisionswhichgovernallourlives",MrGoveargued,shouldbetakenuniquelyby"peoplewechooseandwhowecanthrowoutifwewantchange".ItisworthtakingthisvarietyofEuroscepticismseriously—partlybecauseitcomesfromthemorethoughtful,liberalwingofthemovement（MrGoveisnottheLittleEnglanderofEurophilelore,forexample）.ButalsobecauseitwillfeatureveryprominentlyinthedebatesbetweennowandJune23rd,especiallyasMrJohnsonwillnowpresumablybecomethefaceoftheOutcampaign.

TheJohnson-Goveargumentgoessomethinglikethis:

unlikemanycontinentalcountries,Britainhasanunbrokentraditionoflibertyandrepresentativedemocracy（a"goldenthread"）datingbacktoMagnaCartaandsharedbyotherAnglophonenations.Thistraditionisalmostuniquelyuncompromisingaboutaccountability,steadfastintheconvictionthatpowershouldrestonlyinthehandsofleaderselectedbyandanswerabletoanationconstitutingademos,acommunityofsharedassumptionsandexperiences.ThustheEU,accountabletoforeignersaswellasBritons,breaksthesacredbondofmutualpowerbetweendecisionmakersandthoseonwhosebehalftheyact.

Theflawinthiscaseliesinthetradition'sidealisticdefinitionofsovereignty.ForMrJohnsonandMrGove,beingsovereignislikebeingpregnant—youeitherareoryouaren’t.Yetincreasinglyintoday’spost-Westphalianworld,realsovereigntyisrelative.Acountrythatrefusesoutrighttopoolauthorityisonethathasnocontroloverthepollutiondriftingoveritsborders,thestandardsoffinancialregulationaffectingitseconomy,theconsumerandtradenormstowhichitsexportersandimportersarebound,thecleanlinessofitsseasandthesecurityandeconomiccrisespropellingshockwaves—migration,terrorism,marketvolatility—deepintodomesticlife.Tolivewithglobalisationistoacknowledgethatmanylaws（boththosedevisedbygovernmentsandthosewhichbubbleupatnoone’sbehest）areinternationalbeastswhetherwelikeitornot.Ifsovereigntyistheabsenceofmutualinterference,themostsovereigncountryintheworldisNorthKorea.

ThustheEUisjustoneofthousandsofintrusionsonthesortofsovereigntythatthelikesofMrJohnsonsocherish.Britainissubjecttosome700internationaltreatiesinvolvingmulti-lateralsubmissionstomultilateralcompromises.ItsmembershipoftheUNsimilarlyinfringesitsself-determination,foritcanbeoutvotedtherejustasitcaninBrussels.LikewisetheWTO,NATO,theCOPclimatetalks,theIMF,theWorldBank,nucleartestbantreatiesandaccordsonenergy,water,maritimelawandairtrafficallrequireBritaintotoleratethesortoftrade-offsthatEurosceptic souverainistes finddistasteful:

influenceinexchangeforirksomestandardisation,lawsandrulessetmostlybyforeignersnotelectedbyBritons（regulationsthatBritainwouldnotapply,orwouldapplydifferently,iflefttoitsowndevices）.Yetitsubmitstoalloftheseknowingthat,aswiththeEU,itisfreetoleavewheneveritwants—butatapricenotworthpaying.

ThisispreciselywhythetwomodelsforaBritainoutsidetheEU oftencitedbyEurosceptics（includingMrJohnson）,NorwayandSwitzerland,constitutesuchweakargumentsforBrexit.UndertheJohnson-Goveview,thesecountriesarequitedramaticallymore"sovereign"thanBritain.Butinpracticetheireconomiesandsocietiesaresointertwinedwiththoseoftheirneighboursthattheymustsubjectthemselvestorulesoverwhichtheyhavenosay.Thisexposesafalsechoice:

inanincreasinglyinterdependentworld,countriesmustoftenoptnotbetweenpuresovereigntyandthepooledsort,but—howeverdistastefulthechoicemayseem—betweenthepooledsortandnone.

Perhapstheveryreasonwhythisseemsdistastefulneedsrevising.Thepremiseputforthbythe souverainistes isthatBritain,unliketheEUasawhole,isacoherent demos:

adiscretecivicunitwithadistinctsenseofrightandwrong,asharedcorpusofcivilassumptionsandmostofallacommondialecticalrealm（asBenedictAndersonnoted,theriseofnationalisminthe19thcenturywasassociatedwithemergenceofamassmedia,makingthe"imaginedcommunity"ofnationhoodpossible）.InotherwordstheBritishelectoratecan,initscollectivewisdom,reachjudgmentsaboutpoliticiansandpoliciesinawayimpossibleamongtheEUpopulationasawhole,withits24languages,28nationalmedialandscapes,multiplelegalsystemsandvastrangeofhistoricalandideologicalhinterlands.Hence,notwithoutreason,theEuroscepticoffencetakenatcomparisonsofthedemocraticlegitimacyconferredbyEuropeanParliamenttothatconferredbynationalparliaments.

Muchofthisholdstrue.Buttowhatextent?

Themediaisfragmentingandinternationalising.Thecitizensofagivencountrydonotallwatchthesametelevisionprogrammesandreadthesamenewspapersanymore.AcrossEuropethereisevidenceofgrowingpoliticalpolarisationalongculturallines:

foralltheirdifferencesinexperienceandoutlook,votersindeclining,post-industrialpartsofEnglandandFrancehavemuchmoreincommonwitheachotherthanwiththoseincosmopolitanLondonorParis.Languagedividespeoplelessallthetime.Sub-nationalallegiancesaregrowinginstrength（noteScotland’sslidetowardsindependence）andformanincreasinglyappropriateandeffectivebasisforgovernment（consideralltherecentliteratureonthe"ageofmayors"）.Sowhileonecanstillarguethatpowerexercisedatanationallevelismoredemocraticallyvalidthanthatexercisedatasupra-nationalone,thatcasebecomeslesspressingwitheachpassingyear.

Afinalobservation.TalkofforeignersimposingtheirwillonBritain’selectedgovernmentisusually（andespeciallyinMrJohnson’scase）accompaniedbyapatrioticflourish:

theassertionthat,asoneofworld’sgreateconomic,culturalandmilitarypowers,thecountrydeservestogetitsautonomybackandcanmakeitonitsown.Butthischest-puffingdivergesfromtheunderlyingsovereigntyargument,whichonlyworksif,deepdown,youthinkBritainabitpuny.Considerthetrade-off:

letforeignershavesomeinfluenceoveryourcountryof64mandinreturnreceivequitealotofinfluenceoveraunionofmorethan500m.WhenEuroscepticsonlymentionthefirsthalfofthisbargain,theyimplythatBritainistooweedytotakeadvantageofthesecond. Whichisodd,asthenationalstrengthstheyotherwisecelebrategivethecountryatremendousabilitytodoso.Itsdiplomaticservice,itsglobalalliances,itslanguage,itshistoricalheft—nottomentiontheabsenceofapowersimilarlywellpositionedtoexercisecontinentalleadership—allputitinafantasticpositiontosettheagendainBrusselsatthoseraremoments（forexample,atthetimeoftheLisbonAgendaandtheunion’seastwardsexpansion）whenitputsitsmindtothetask.TheEUisBritain’storun,ifonlyitcouldovercomeitsinsecurityaboutscaryforeignbullies.Inaninterconnectedandineluctablyintegrated21stcentury,itisthat,farmorethantheEurosceptics’puritygames,thatisrealsovereignty. 

Passage2:

Fightingthenextrecession

Unfamiliarwaysforward

Policymakersinricheconomiesneedtoconsidersomeradicalapproachestotacklingthenextdownturn

Feb20th2016 | Fromtheprintedition

ATTHEstartofmostyearsinthepastdecade,thelistofworriesabouttheworldeconomyhasseemedlongerthanthatofreasonsforhope.Thefirstfewweeksof2016haveupheldthisnewtradition.Manyemergingmarketsarewrestlingwithexcessivedebts,slowgrowth,plungingcurrenciesandrisinginflation.China,theworld’ssecond-largesteconomy,isasourceofapeculiarlyintractableanxiety.Ifitsgrowthfalters,itstokesworriesabouttheprospectsforotheremergingmarkets;ifactivityholdsup,though,concernsshifttotheever-risingdebtthatmakessuchfeatspossible,butnotnecessarilysustainable.Theeuroarea’stroublesarenolongeracute;butachronicconditionwithanuncertainprognosisisahardthingfromwhichtotakemuchcheer.

TheonebighopehastendedtobetheAmericaneconomy.Someindicatorsthereremainrobust.Thehousingmarketshowsfewsignsofweakness.Newjobsarestillbeingadded.Butdespitethis,signsofimpendingrecessionarenowpilingup.Economicgrowthseemstohavestalledinthefinalquarterof2015.Corpor