外刊阅读14.docx

外刊阅读14.docx

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外刊阅读14

Passage1：

Pointerstothefuture

Forecastingtheinternet’simpactonbusinessisprovinghard

Oct18th2014 | Fromtheprintedition

PROGNOSTICATORShaveabadrecordwhenitcomestonewtechnologies.Safetyrazorsweresupposedtoproduceaclean-shavenfuture.Carswereexpectedtotakeoffandfly.Automationwasmeanttodeliveralifeofleisure.Yetbeardsflourish,carsremainearthboundandworkyapsatourheels.

Theinternetisnoexception.Anyonelookingformis-prognosticationsaboutitwillfindanembarrassmentofriches.Theinternetwassupposedtodestroybigcompanies;nowbigcompaniesruletheinternet.Itwassupposedtogiveeveryoneacloakofanonymity:

“Ontheinternetnobodyknowsyou’readog.”NowGoogleanditslikearesurveillancemachinesthatknownotonlythatyou’readogbutwhetheryouhavefleasandwhichbrandofmeatychunksyouprefer.Wecannowaddtwomoreentriestothelistofunreliableforecastsabouttheinternet:

thatitwouldmakelocationirrelevantandeliminatemiddlemen.

Adecadeorsoagopundits（ourselvesincluded）saidtheinternetwouldmeanthe“deathofdistance”andmaketheworld“flat”,ie,eliminategeographicaldifferences.AmazonandInfosysbuiltglobalempiresinbooksellingandITservicesrespectively.ButnowitishardertoagreewithMarcAndreessen,aventurecapitalist,whooncesaidthatby2020,“retailguysaregoingtogooutofbusinessande-commercewillbecometheplaceeveryonebuys.”Thelistofe-commercefirmsturningMrAndreessenonhisheadandopeningshopsisgettinglongerbytheday:

itrangesfromBonobos,aclothingretailer,toScrewfix,abuilders’merchant.EvenAmazon’sboss,JeffBezos,saysitcouldfollowsuit.

Academicshavediscoveredthatdistanceissurprisinglyundeadinthevirtualworld.Oneresearchpapershowsthatforevery1%increaseinthedistancebetweenthecountrythatyouliveinandaforeigncountrythereisa2%decreaseinthechancethatyouwillvisitawebsitebasedinthatcountry.AmericansaremorelikelytovisitCanadianpornsitesthanBritishones.

DavidBell,oftheUniversityofPennsylvania’sWhartonBusinessSchool,triestomakesenseofallthisinanewbook,“Locationis（Still）Everything”.MrBellnotes,forexample,thatalmosthalfofBonobos’sfirst-timecustomersheardaboutthecompanyfromneighbours.Hemapsthesalesofonlineproducts,demonstratingthattheirpopularityfirstspreadsbyphysicalproximity,fromonezip-codeareatonext-doorones,andthenbyculturalproximity,fromonezip-codeareatoanotherthatsharessocialcharacteristics.Theproliferationofmobiledeviceswillfurtherincreasetheimportanceoflocation:

peoplewillusetheirsmartphonestolookforlocalbargainsandtoshowfriendsthelatestproductstheyhavefoundonline.

Companiesareincreasinglytreatingthephysicalandvirtualworldsascomplementsratherthanalternatives.Thevirtualworldisbetteratsomethings—comparingprices,say,orgivingconsumersinthewildsofKansasthesamechoiceasonesinManhattan.Butthephysicalworldisbetteratothers:

asBonobos’sboss,AndyDunn,pointsout,manycustomersstillinsistonexaminingclothesbeforebuying.Retailersincreasinglyofferthebestofbothworldswithclick-and-collect,alsoknownasBOPS（buyonline,pickupin-store）.Macy’sisspending$400mremodellingitsflagshipNewYorkstore,inparttobringitintothedigitalage:

therewillbeamobileapptoguidecustomersaroundandprovideinformationonanyproductthatcatchestheireye.S,anonlineselleroftoiletries,dispatchesthemindistinctive,brightlycolouredboxes,hopingforaphysical-contagioneffect:

aspeopleseeneighboursreceivingthem,itsparkstheircuriosityandpromptsthemtovisititswebsite.

Asfortheinternetbeingthegreat“disintermediationmachine”,puttingswathesofagents,distributorsandothermiddlemenoutofwork,thathasprovedonlyhalf-true.Manypeoplenowbuyinsurancedirectfromtheinsurerandsubscribetonewspapers,indigitalform,directfromthepublisher.Butestateagents,recordlabelsandawholehostofotherintermediariesarestillaround.MuktiKhaireofHarvardBusinessSchoolarguesthatinmanyotherareasmiddlemenaremoreimportantthanever:

peoplearesoconfusedbytheoverwhelmingchoicetheinternetbrings,andthecacophonyofuserreviews,thattheneedfortrustworthyguidesandothersortsofintermediaryisincreasing.

Doubtingthewisdomofcrowds

Thisisparticularlytrueoftwoofthemostimportantareasofthemoderneconomy:

startupsandthecultureindustry.Kickstarter,acrowdfundingwebsite,has“curatedpages”wherepotentialbackerscanfindprojectsendorsedbysomebodytheytrust,ratherthanjustfollowingthewisdomofcrowds.Expertreviewsarestillamongthemostpopularfeaturesinbrand-namenewspapersandmagazines:

consumersapparentlyfindthesemorecrediblethancommentsleftbyshoppersonAmazonortheopinionsofself-appointedbloggers,whocansometimesbepaidshillsindisguise.Oneunscrupulousscribewasfoundtobeearningnearly$30,000amonthchurningoutfakereviews.

Theconventionalstarmakingapparatusisprovingstrikinglyresilient.HollywoodhasanewgenerationofagentswhotrawlYouTubeforpeoplemakinganameforthemselvesthere.AmandaHockingmadeafortunebyself-publishingher“Trylle”vampire-romancetrilogy.Butshesoldhernextbookseries,“Watersong”,toanold-fashionedpublisherturningdownanostensiblyhigherofferfromAmazoninthebeliefthatshewouldbebetteroffwithadistributorwhocouldgetherbooksintoWalmart.

Theinternetisnowstartingtotransformeducationandhealthcare.Giventhetechnology’scapacitytocutcostsandincreaseaccess,itwouldbewrongtogiveintoincumbentsinthosebusinesseswhoaredeadsetagainstreform.Butitwouldalsobeunwisetotrustindigitalrevolutionarieswhoinsistthoseincumbentswillinevitablybesweptawaybyawaveofstartups.Thereisaworldofdifferencebetweendisruptionanddestruction.

Passage2:

Differenceengine

SayhellototheUbernet

Netneutralityistheleastoftheinternet’sproblems

Oct20th2014 | LOSANGELES | Scienceandtechnology

THEdecade-longdebateinAmericaover“netneutrality”—theassumptionthatallinternettraffic,nomatteritsoriginorpurpose,shouldbetreatedequally—isinchingtowardssomeformofcompromise.Internetserviceproviders（ISPs）likeVerizon,AT&T,ComcastandTimeWarnerCableareadamantthattheinternetshouldremainfreeofregulationsthatwouldbarthemfromlimitingorchargingbandwidth-hogginguserssuchasNetflixandYouTube.Duringtheprime-timehoursof6pmto10pm,thesetwopopularwebsitesforstreamingvideoaccountforhalfofallinternettrafficinAmerica. 

Ontheothersideoftheacrimoniousdebate,open-internetactivistshavebombardedtheFederalCommunicationsCommission（FCC）withdemandsthattheISPsbepreventedfromdoinganythingthatwoulderodethepracticeoftreatingalldatapacketstravellingovertheinternet—whetherfortext,speechorvideo—thesameforallcomers.Withoutsuchprovisions,theyfear,twointernetsmightemerge:

afastlaneforcontentproviderswillingtopayforfirst-classservice;andaslowlaneforeveryoneelse.Theyarguethat,unabletoaffordtheinternet’sfastlanes,startupsandotherinnovatorsmightnotbeabletocompeteeffectivelywithestablishedwebgiants—andthatcouldhobbleinnovation.

Thereisagooddealofmythologyassociatedwiththeinternet.Onemistakenimpressionisthatnetneutralityisahallowedprincipleespousedbytheinternet’sfoundingfathers.Thatisdefinitelynotthecase.Indeed,VintCerf,themostfamousoftheinternet’soriginaldevelopers,recentlytoldthe WashingtonPost thatneitherhenoranyofhiscolleaguesatthetimeeversaidallpacketsofdatashouldbetreatedequally.NordidtheysaythatISPscouldnotchargemoreforgreaterusage.

Farfrombeingafundamentalprinciple,theterm“netneutrality”wasunheardofuntilitwascoinedin2003byTimWu,amedia-lawprofessoratColumbiaUniversity.Forthefirstthreedecadesoftheinternet’sexistence,allpacketsofdatatravellingoveritwereequalbytheirverynature.Beingpredominantlytextalongwiththeoccasionalgraphic,noneofthepacketsrequiredspecialtreatment.Bydefault,allwerethereforehandledinexactlythesameway.Andthus,inretrospect,wasbornthemythofnetneutrality.

Itwasonlywheninternettelephonyandstreamingvideoarrivedonthesceneadecadeagothatsomepacketsbegantoneedpriorityoverothers—topreventpicturesfromfreezingorvoicesfromstuttering.Eversince,packetshavebeengiventhepriority（ie,“qualityofservice”）theyrequire,dependingontheapplicationtheyserve.Withoutthat,SkypeandotherVoIPserviceswouldnotexist.StilllesswouldpopularvideoandaudiostreamingsitessuchasNetflix,YouTube,HuluoriTunes. 

Noneofwhichhasstoppednet-neutralityadvocatesfrominsistingthatISPsshouldbereclassifiedascommoncarriers（ie,phonecompanies）,sotheFCCwouldhavethelegalauthority（whichitcurrentlydoesnothave）tobananyformofdiscriminationconcerninginternettraffic.BarackObamahasmadeitclearthatheis“unequivocallycommittedtonetneutrality”,butsaysthefinaldecisionrestswiththeFCC.Inthemidstofitall,TomWheeler,theFCCchairman（andanObamaappointee）,hastheunenviabletaskoftryingtoreconcilethedifferences.

Earlierthisyear,afederalcourtruled,notforthefirsttime,thattheFCChadoversteppeditsauthoritywithitsOpenInternetOrderof2010,whichsoughttostrikeabalancebetweentheFirstAmendmentr