SovereignWealthFundsCChina.docx
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SovereignWealthFundsCChina
W
allStreetwasthrownalifelinerecentlyfromanunexpectedquarter,justwhenaccumulatingsub-primelossesand
concernsaboutcreditwerethreateningit.
InDecemberlastyearChina’slargeststate-controlledinvestmentvehicle,thenewlycreatedChinaSovereignWealthFunds–China’sArms-LengthApproach
TheMainland’ssovereignwealthfundswillcontinuetoexpand,reportsDonGasper.Butfarfrombeingathreattoothereconomies,thisisagoldenopportunityforoverseasassetmanagers.
InvestmentCorporation（CIC,paidUS$5billionfora9.9%stakeinUSbankMorganStanleyafterthelatterpostedalargerthanexpectedlossinthefiscalfourthquarter.
InJanuarysimilarsovereignwealthfunds（SWFsfromothercountriessteppedinwithacombined
Photoby:
SophiaTsibikaki
US$21.1billiontobailoutthelargestbankintheUSA,Citigroup,andthelargestbrokerageintheworld,MerrillLynch,afterbothalsoreportedheavyfourth-quarterlosses.
FormerUSsecretaryofthetreasuryLawrenceSummerssaidinDavosthatmonththatSWFsneededtobecomemoretransparentandheexpressedhisfearthatsuchfundsmightbeinapositiontoexertunduepoliticalpressureontheirhosts.
Others,however,saythatSWFsarenodifferentfromotherinvestorsandsimplywanttofindthebestreturnfortheirinvestment.
“MostoftheseSWFsarejustlikepensionfunds,”saysBankSarassin’schiefinvestmentofficer,BurkhardVarnholt.“Ithasbeenagreatblessingtotheworldeconomythattheyhavebeenaroundinthelastfewmonths.”
China’sSWFsareindeedexplicitlyintendedtofundthecountry’sfuturepensionliabilitiesandstrengthenitsbanksaswellastodiversifyitsforeignexchangeholdings.
“CIC’spurposeistoachievereasonable,long-termreturnsandalsotoimprovethecorporategovernanceofdomesticbanks,’’CICChairmanLouJiweitoldaconferenceinBeijinglastNovember.
“CICwantstobeastabilisingforceintheinternationalcapitalmarkets,’’Lousaid,addingthatthefund’sfocuswouldbeontradedsecuritiesininternationalmarketswithonlyasmallpartin“alternative”investments.
RapidIncreaseinScaleofChineseFunds
GeorgeHongchoy,managingdirectorofDBSAsiaCapitalLtd,anticipatesarapidincreaseinthescaleofChina’sSWFs,sayingthatthecountrycouldincreasethesizeofCICtooverUS$1trillionifitmakesavailablemoreofitssteadilyexpandingforeignexchangereserves.
TowardstheendoflastyearChina’spolicymakersdecidedtoallowtherenminbiriseagainsttheUSdollarmorequicklythanmanyhadexpected.Atroughlythesametime,inSeptember,theyelectedtocreateanewagency,CIC,modelledonSingapore’sTemasekHoldingsandtheGovernmentofSingaporeInvestmentCorporation（GIC,todiversifythecountry’sforeignexchangereserves.
TheCICwascreatedinresponsetothechallengethataUS$1.6trillionplussterilisedforeignexchangesurpluswaslosingmoneyeveryday,duetothedeclineoftheUSdollar.Giventhenearcertaintyofrenminbiappreciationoverthenexttwoyears,Chinacouldnolongeraffordtoleaveitsforeigncurrencyreservesinlow-yieldinginstruments.
ButtheStateAdministrationofForeignExchangecouldhavedonethejob.TherewasalsoCentralHuijinInvestment,astate-sponsoredbankreconstructionagency.Sowhycreateanewbody?
“Inourview,therearetworeasons,”arguesanewreportissuedinShanghaiinAprilonthefunding,assetgrowth,strategiesandpreferencesofChina’sSWFs.ThereportwasputoutbyZ-BenAdvisorsLtd,acompanyprovidingin-depthresearchreportsandconsultancyservicesonChina’sinvestmentandfundindustrytoforeignfinancialinstitutionsandthird-partyproviders.
“First,byhavingCICassumeresponsibilityoverCentralHuijinInvestment,thegovernmentgaveCICaunityofpurposedomesticallyandinternationally:
Makemoneybybeingapassive,minorityinvestor（nottheasset-gobblingmonsterithas–errantly-beenmadeouttobe.
“Second,CICcouldachievelevelsoftransparencyinitsinvestment,reportingandstrategythat,foragovernmentagency,wouldeitherhavebeenimpossibleorsimplynotbelievedbyoutsiders.”
WesterncountriesarepayinghighattentiontoCIC’sactions,givenChina’sgrowingeconomicandpoliticalinfluence,Hongchoysays.ConsideringlessonslearnedfromotherSWFs,CICtendstobemorecautiousaboutmakingoverseasinvestments.
“Therehavebeenconcernsvoiced,particularlyintheUSA,overthelackoftransparencyofSWFsandovertheiragendabeingallegedlysetbypoliticsratherthaneconomicmotives.Anothercriticismhasbeenthattheymakejudgmentsonthebasisofshort-termresultsforwhatarelong-terminvestments.Finally,therehasbeenconcernastowhentheydisposeoftheirholdings,especiallyiftherearesignificantcapitalgains.”
Sofar,henotes,giventheexistenceoftremendousinvestmentopportunitiesinChinaitself,CIChasbeenmakingavastamountofinvestmentsdomestically,apatternthatdiffersfromSWFsinothercountries.
MoreOverseasInvestmentLikely–ButAtArm’sLength
However,followingitsinjectionofUS$67billionintotheAgriculturalBankofChinaandtheChinaDevelopmentBank,CIChasessentiallyrunoutofdomesticassetscapableofsoakingupthelargesumsitisentrustedwith.Moreoverseasinvestmentisthereforeprobable,butChinaislikelytodothisinawaythatavoidstheheadlines.
HongchoythinksthatitislikelytofollowthemodelsetbyNorway’sGlobalPensionFund,wherebyexternalmanagersareused,shieldingSWFsfromprotectionistmeasuresandaccusationsofmarketmanipulation.“WebelieveCICwilllikelyoutsourcesomeofitsfundstooverseasassetmanagersforportfolioinvestmentinequities,”hesays.
Itwillcontinuealsotomakeinvestmentsinprivateequityhouses,likeBlackstoneGroup,throughwhichitcaninvestinawiderangeofbusinessesindirectly.CICmadeheadlinesinJunelastyearwhenitpaidUS$3billionfora9.9%stakeinBlackstone.Howeverittooknoseatonitsboard.
TheZ-BenAdvisorsreporttakesasimilarview.China“willnowstronglyprefer,unlesscompellingbargainsareofferedincountrieswhichwelcomeChineseinvestment,toputitsmoneytoworkatarm’slength:
specifically,throughthird-partymandates,”itargues,forecastingasubstantialincreaseinthevolumeofassetsthatChineseSWFswillplaceinthehandsofthird-partyassetmanagersby2010.
Bythatyear,itsays,thecountry’sSWFs,asagroup,willbetheworld’sthird-largestusersofthird-partymandatemanagers,behindonlyJapan’sNationalPensionFund（US$740billioninexternalmandatesandtheAbuDhabiInvestmentCouncil（US$680billioninexternalmandatesintotalassetsinvested.
OverUS$320billioninnewassetswillbeallocatedbytheendofthatyeartoforeignthird-partymandatemanagersbyChina’sSWFs,includingthemajorones–CIC,theNationalCouncilforSocialSecurityFund（NCSSFandtheChina-AfricaDevelopmentFund（CADFund,thereportpredicts.
Inwhatisperhapsitsmostsurprisingprediction,thereportsaysthatCIC’sassetsundermanagement（AUMwillrisefromUS$200billionatpresenttoUS$625billionbytheendof2010.Morethan70%ofthenewfundsareprojectedtobeassignedtomorethan100third-partyforeignmanagers.
NCSSF’sAUMareexpectedtogrowfromUS$72billionnowtoUS$104billionbythesametime.Over40%ofthosenewfundsarepredictedtobeallocatedtothird-partyforeignmanagers.
China’sSWFswillspendthenext30monthsfinishingtheseedingphaseoftheirlong-terminvestments,saysthereport:
Morethan120newmandatemanagerswillbeselectedbytheendof2010withmandatesrangingfromUS$0.5billiontoUS$6.0billion.
Regardingexposuretoforeignsecurities,thereportsaysthatChina’sSWFsintendtoincreasedramaticallytheirexposuretoforeignsecurities,fromlessthan14%ofcurrentassetstomorethan49%bytheendof2010.
“Chinanotonlyneedstodiversifyitsforeignexchangereservesandfunditsfuturepensionliabilitiesthroughinvestment,itneedstoaccomplishthesetasksatsomespeed,”saysPeterAlexander,Z-BenAdvisors’Principal.“Investingdirectlyinglobalcompaniesisonlyasmallpartoftheiroverallstrategy:
Thelargestproportionoftheirfundswillbeinvestedwithprofessionalassetmanagers.
“Assetmanagementcompaniesneedtobeawareofthespeedatwhichthesemandateswillbeassignedinthenext30monthsthanarelikelytobegrantedinthesubsequentfiveyears.ChineseSWFsintendtoputtheirnear-termseedmoney–intotal,morethanUS$630billionbyend-2010–toworkandtheirunambiguouspreferencewillbeformanagerswhoarepreparedtoworkquickly.”
Soforthoseinterested,now’sthetimetoapply!
主權財富基金–
中國採取中庸之道
內地主權財富基金的規模將繼續擴大。
但它們非但不會構成對其他經濟體的威脅,而且還是境外資產管理機構的黃金機遇。
DonGasper報導。
最近,正當華爾街面臨日益嚴重的次按損失及信貸威脅時,從一個意想不到角落拋來了救
生圈。
美國摩根士丹利銀行宣佈去年第四季的虧損超過預期後,於去年12月,中國最大的國家控股投資機構,即新成立的中國投資有限責任公司（中投以50億美元,購買美國摩根士丹利銀行9.9%的股權。
今年一月,其他國家的類似主權財富基金亦施以援手,總共支付211億美元挽救美國最大的銀行花旗集團以及世界最大的券商美林證券。
此前,兩者亦公佈第四季度遭受巨虧。
前任美國財政部長LawrenceSummers在一月在達沃斯表示,主權財富基金必須變得更加透明。
他表示自己擔心此類基金有可能對東道國施加不恰當的政治壓力。
但是也有人表示,主權財富基金與其他投資機構並無差別,只是希望為自己的投資尋找最佳回報。
「這些主權財富基金中的大多數就像退休基金那樣。
」BankSarassin的投資總監BurkhardVarnholt說道:
「過去幾個月來,它們的存在令世界經濟受益匪淺。
」
確實,中國主權財富基金的明確意圖便是為該國未來的養老責任提供資金,強化內地銀行,並且令其外匯資產更加多元化。
去年11月在北京的一次研討會中,中投的主席樓繼偉表示,「中投的目的在於實現合理、長期的回報,並改善國內銀行的公司管治。
」
他說:
「中投希望成為國際資本市場的穩定性力量。
」樓繼偉補充說,中國主權財富基金的投資重點將是國際市場中的流通證券,僅有一小部分進入「另類」投資。
中國基金規模迅速擴大
據星展亞洲融資有限公司執行董事王國龍預計,中國主權財富基金的規模將迅速擴大。
他指出,如果中國將不斷增長的外匯儲備更多注入其中,便可以將中投的規模擴大至超過一萬億美元。
臨近去年年底,中國的政策制定機構決定允許人民幣以超過許多人預期的幅度對美元升值。
差不多同時（九月份,它們決定仿照新加坡的淡馬錫控股及新加坡政府投資公司模式設立新的機構（中投,使得中國的外匯儲備多元化。
由於美元貶值,超過16,000億美元的淨外匯盈餘正在日益縮水。
成立中投正是為了應對這樣的挑戰。
由於人民幣在今後兩年中升值幾成定局,中國再也不能將其外匯
升级会员 